About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher as bad weather is still in the forecast for US growing areas. Russia have been offering into the world market at relatively cheap prices but the Wheat is moving from the Black Sea and a lot of ships are scared to go on those waters. Hard Red Winter Wheat was higher on forecasts for some very light precipitation to fall in JHRW growing areas of the western Great Plains this week and more cold weather is forecast for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies. The western US Great Plains remained too dry and crop conditions were very poor and the war continued in Ukraine with little if any ideas of a cease fire mentioned. Ports are closed in Ukraine but Russian shippers and exporters are offering and some sales are being reported at Black Sea ports despite the high insurance costs associated with the boats coming into the sea. Ukraine can rail the exports to the EU for shipment but the amount that can be moved is very limited. But, Romania is taking the Ukrainian grain and shipping it.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 1045, 1017, and 1014 May, with resistance at 1098, 1135, and 1156 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 1152, 1129, and 10106 May, with resistance at 1200, 1242, and 1292 May. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 1222, 1237, and 1263 May. Support is at 1168, 1144, and 1128 May, and resistance is at 1207, 1227, and 1235 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher in reaction in part to the slow progress seen in Rice planting and emergence in the US. The overall rally is expected to continue and new contract highs are very possible. It looks like supplies are tight and demand is holding together in this market. The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere in light volumes. Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal. Growing conditions are considered good for crops right now although it has been a little cold.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1787 and 1847 May. Support is at 1627, 1600, and 1569 May and resistance is at 1689, 1700, and 1712 May.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Apr 27
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.08 9.55 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.89 10.16 0.00
Brokens 9.57 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher again in response to cold and wet Midwestern weather and on demand ideas. The price strength for the nearby months as better demand for American Corn due to the loss of export potential from Ukraine went against the cheaper South American offers. Export sales were off in the weekly report but big sales were announced on Friday to China and Mexico. New crop futures spent the day higher on forecasts for cold weather for the US Midwest. It will be drier, but not dry as more rain should arrive over the weekend. The crop planting progress is slow already and the market will start to worry about yield loss soon. It already thinks there is reduced planted area because of the Mar h planning intentions reports from USDA. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter. The ports remain closed and Ukraine can rail out to the EU in limited amounts. China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response. The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic. The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people can’t make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes. However, China has been a very big buyer of US Corn over the last couple of weeks as they need the feed and Ukraine cannot currently offer any supply. President Biden has said he will permit the use of higher ethanol blends in gasoline this Summer in an effort to control inflation and high fuel prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 785, 768, and 760 May, and resistance is at 820, 826, and 832 May. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 663, 622, and 616 May. Support is at 674, 655, and 640 May, and resistance is at 714, 724, and 741 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed mixed. with Soybean Meal lower and Soybean Oil higher on the reduced production from South America and on increasing concerns in the US about the cold and wet Midwest weather keeping farmers from the fields for planting. Traders are worried about demand moving forward as the US Dollar is very strong and China is locking down due to Covid. Demand has been strong even with a slower export pace from the US with NOPA showing a higher crush rate. Soybean Oil has been the leader to the upside and was higher yesterday on mixed news from Indonesia that it will permit Crude Palm Oil exports but not exports of refined products. It said it could cut off Crude Oil exports soon if domestic supplies do not increase and if domestic prices stay elevated. The market had been told last week that all Palm Oil exports from Indonesia were banned.. President Biden has said he will support expanded use of bio fuels this Summer in an effort to control higher fuel prices. More sanctions are now threatened for Russia due to what the world is seeing in Ukraine right now. There are still worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America and bought Soybeans again yesterday. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year. Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1686, 1681, and 1652 May, and resistance is at 1728, 1757, and 1768 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 441.00 and 437.00 May. Support is at 436.00, 429.00, and 425.00 May, and resistance is at 459.00 465.00, and 473.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 8920 and 9380 May. Support is at 8460, 8020, and 7890 May, with resistance at 8600, 8720, and 8840 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher yesterday as the outside markets held firm. The Indonesian ban on Palm Oil products imports is now in effect and a ban on Crude Palm Oil exports is coming, according to the Indonesian government. Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was higher along with Chicago and on word of the changes in the Indonesian Palm Oil export ban. This market turned trends up earlier and built on the trend higher yesterday. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting. StatsCan said that Canadian farmers intend to reduce planted area for Canola this year and use the area to plant Wheat instead. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 1226.00, 1259.00, and 1268.00 May. Support is at 1190.00, 1170.00, and 1163.00 May, with resistance at 1208.00, 1220.00, and 1232.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 6740 July. Support is at 6330, 6180, and 6150 July, with resistance at 6550, 6600, and 6720 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March 100 May
250 May 135 May
132 May

April 100 May
250 May 135 May
132 May

May 103 July
230 July 120 July
142 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 26
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for April 26, 2022.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 1,162.10 -22.60 May 22 dn 4.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 1,249.80 55.00 Jul 22 up 27.70
Basis: Vancouver 1,259.80 65.00 Jul 22 up 27.70
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (Phil Franz-Warkentin,
news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 27
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
May 1837.50 +80.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1767.50 +85.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1597.50 +100.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1507.50 +75.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1840.00 +80.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1770.00 +85.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1600.00 +100.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1510.00 +75.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1730.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1530.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 7500.00 +400.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 495.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.358)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322