About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Apr 25

WA_GR101

Washington, DC    Mon Apr 25, 2022   USDA Market News

COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.

INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED

THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.  NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,

COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE

GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

                  REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING APR 21, 2022

                            — METRIC TONS —

————————————————————————–

                                                   CURRENT     PREVIOUS

             ———– WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR

  GRAIN      04/21/2022  04/14/2022  04/22/2021    TO DATE     TO DATE

BARLEY              0           0          24       10,083       32,644

CORN        1,650,844   1,175,398   1,954,012   34,878,754   41,408,942

FLAXSEED            0           0           0          324          509

MIXED               0           0           0            0            0

OATS                0         100           0          600        6,514

RYE                 0           0           0            0            0

SORGHUM       168,777     323,467     182,614    5,088,673    5,384,871

SOYBEANS      602,178   1,004,103     284,564   46,598,182   55,497,621

SUNFLOWER         384         336           0        1,972            0

WHEAT         287,997     446,225     581,087   18,369,608   22,655,897

Total       2,710,180   2,949,629   3,002,301  104,948,196  124,986,998

————————————————————————-

CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED;  SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

DJ Canadian 2022/23 Principal Field Crop Area – StatsCan – Apr 26

WINNIPEG–Following is Statistics Canada’s 2022/23 estimates of

principal field crop area report. The figures are as of March

2022. Source: Statistics Canada.

                   2022/23      2021/22

Barley           7,491,200    8,295,800

Edible Beans       337,400      437,400

Canary Seed        267,700      314,000

Canola          20,896,500   22,478,500

Chickpeas          175,200      185,500

Corn for grain   3,714,700    3,491,500

Fababeans           84,600      133,200

Flaxseed           866,800    1,027,000

Hemp                50,600       68,700

Lentils          4,486,100    4,303,300

Mixed grains       339,100      327,700

Mustard seed       457,000      308,200

Oats             3,991,700    3,422,900

Peas, dry        3,551,000    3,819,500

Rye                589,300      608,000

Soybeans         5,357,500    5,321,300

Sugarbeets          42,900       46,300

Summerfallow     1,617,600    1,336,500

Sunflower seed     112,100      101,400

Total wheat*    25,031,000   23,359,700

Durum wheat      6,224,100    5,530,200

Spring wheat    17,634,000   16,480,900

Winter wheat     1,172,900    1,348,600

*Total wheat includes spring wheat, durum wheat, and winter

wheat remaining after winterkill

**Winter wheat remaining

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or

204-414-9084)

Crop Progress

Date

24-Apr

17-Apr

2021

Avg

Cotton Planted

12

10

12

11

Corn Planted

7

4

16

15

Corn Emerged

2

3

3

Soybeans Planted

3

1

7

5

Sorghum Planted

19

17

18

21

Rice Planted

26

22

45

47

Rice Emerged

19

13

25

28

Peanuts Planted

4

2

5

5

Sugarbeets Planted

11

7

41

29

Oats Planted

309

34

58

48

Oats Emerged

27

24

36

32

Winter Wheat Headed

11

7

16

19

Spring Wheat Planted

13

8

27

15

S[pring Wheat Emerged

2

7

4

Barley Planted

24

17

34

24

Barley Emerged

3

9

6

Crop Condition

Very Poor

Poor

Fair

Good

Excellent

Winter Wheat This Week

20

19

34

24

3

Winter Wheat Last Week

19

18

33

27

3

Winter Wheat Last Year

6

13

32

43

6

WHEAT

General Comments:   Wheat markets were higher with Minneapolis higher as another blizzard is forecast for this week in Spring Wheat growing areas, and Chicago was lower on speculative selling tied as wire reports from Russia indicated that the country has a very big Wheat crop.  They have been offering into the world market at relatively cheap prices.  Hard Red Winter Wheat was higher on forecasts for some very light precipitation to fall in JHRW growing areas of the western Great Plains this week..  The western US Great Plains remained too dry and crop conditions were very poor and the war continued in Ukraine with little if any ideas of a cease fire mentioned.   Ports are closed in Ukraine but Russian shippers and exporters are offering and some sales are being reported at Black Sea ports despite the high insurance costs associated with the boats coming into the sea.  Ukraine can rail the exports to the EU for shipment but the amount that can be moved is very limited. 

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers.  Temperatures should average near to below normal.  Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers.  Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 1045, 1017, and 1014 May, with resistance at 1080, 1098, and 1135 May.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 1129, 1106, and 1090 May, with resistance at 1167, 1200, and 1242 May.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed .  Support is at 1144, 1128, and 1116 May, and resistance is at 1185, 1207, and 1222 May.

RICE:                                              

General Comments:  Rice was higher at the close after trading lower early in the day.  The weekly export sales report showed increased sales from the previous week.  Sales were moderate.  The weekly crop condition report showed slow planting and emergence for the new crop.  The overall rally is expected to start again very soon if it did not get started again yesterday.  It looks like supplies are tight and demand is holding together in this market.  The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere in light volumes.  Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal.  Growing conditions are considered good for crops right now although it has been a little cold.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1600, 1569, and 1563 May and resistance is at 1655, 1670, and 1689 May.

CORN AND OATS:

General Comments:  Corn closed higher in response to cold and wet Midwestern weather and on demand ideas.   The price strength for the nearby months as better demand for American Corn due to the loss of export potential from Ukraine went against the cheaper South American offers.  Export sales were off in the weekly report but big sales were announced on Friday to China and Mexico.  New crop futures spent the day higher on forecasts for cold and wet weather for the US Midwest.  The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter.  The ports remain closed and Ukraine can rail out to the EU in limited amounts.  China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response.  The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic.  The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people can’t make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes.  However, China has been a very big buyer of US Corn over the last couple of weeks as they need the feed and Ukraine cannot currently offer any supply.  President Biden has said he will permit the use of higher ethanol blends in gasoline this Summer in an effort to control inflation and high fuel prices.

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 785, 768, and 760 May, and resistance is at 820, 826, and 832 May.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 705, 691, and 674 May, and resistance is at 724, 741, and 766 May.

SOYBEANS

General Comments:  Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower yesterday in correction trading and despite the reduced production from South America and on increasing concerns in the US about the cold and wet Midwest weather keeping farmers from the fields for planting.  Traders are worried about demand moving forward as the ES Dollar is very strong and China is locking down due to Covid.  Demand has been strong even with a slower export pace from the US with NOPA showing a higher crush rate.  Soybean Oil has been the leader to the upside and was higher yesterday despite news that Indonesia will permit Crude Palm Oil exports but not exports of refined products.  The market had been told last week that all Palm Oil exports from Indonesia were banned..  President Biden has said he will support expanded use of bio fuels this Summer in an effort to control higher fuel prices. More sanctions are now threatened for Russia due to what the world is seeing in Ukraine right now.  There are still worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there.  China has not been mentioned as a Soybeans buyer in the daily sales reports from USDA for the last couple of weeks.  China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America.  They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs.  Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market. 

Overnight News:   China bought 232,000 tons of new crop US Soybeans and unknown destinations bought 133,000 tons of US Soybeans.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1681, 1652, and 1646 May, and resistance is at 1728, 1757, and 1768 May.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.   Support is at 4548.00, 447.00, and 436.00 May, and resistance is at 459.00 465.00, and 473.00 May.  Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 8550 May.  Support is at 8020, 7990, and 7860 May, with resistance at 8480, 8600, and 8720 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments Palm Oil was yesterday as the outside merkets held firm.  Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported.  A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports.  The economy could slow down and affect demand.  Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production.  Indonesia is once again making moves to cut the availability of Palm Oil for export as it manages high internal prices.  Canola was lower along with Chicago and on word of the changes in the Indonesian Palm Oil export ban.   It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting.  There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well.  Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.  Trends have turned up again in this market.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 1226.00, 1259.00, and 1268.00 May.  Support is at 1170.00, 1163.00, and 1153.00 May, with resistance at 1200.00, 1208.00, and 1220.00 May.  Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 6740 July.  Support is at 6180, 6150, and 6020 July, with resistance at 6430, 6550, and 6600 July.

DJ Malaysia April 1-25 Palm Oil Exports Fell 13%, SGS Says

  Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the April 1-25 period are estimated to have fallen 13% on month to 897,683 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Tuesday.

  The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:

  (All figures in metric tons)

                              April 1-25           March 1-25

   RBD Palm Olein                231,541              429,729

   RBD Palm Oil                   68,300               64,200

   RBD Palm Stearin               79,729               98,136

   Crude Palm Oil                216,245              184,653

   Total*                        897,683            1,030,943

  *Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included

  SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry.  Temperatures should average below normal.

 

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn

HRW

SRW

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

March

100 May

250 May

135 May

132 May

April

100 May

250 May

135 May

132 May

May

103 July

230 July

120 July

142 July

 

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 25

     WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from

ICE Futures for April 25, 2022.

     Source:  ICE Futures

CANOLA

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

                 Spot Price    Basis  Contract     Change

*Par Region        1,166.70    -27.20   May 22   up 12.90

Basis: Thunder Bay 1,222.10     55.00   Jul 22   dn  4.60

Basis: Vancouver   1,232.10     65.00   Jul 22   dn  4.60

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or

204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 26

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

May             1757.50    +40.00      Unquoted    –        –

Jun             1682.50    +75.00      Unquoted    –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep     1497.50    +37.50      Unquoted    –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec     1432.50    +40.00      Unquoted    –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB,     Malaysian ports

                 Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

May             1760.00     +40.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jun             1685.00     +75.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep     1500.00     +37.50      Unquoted    –       –

Oct/Nov/Dec     1435.00     +40.00      Unquoted    –       –

RBD palm stearin, FOB,  Malaysian ports

                 Offer      Change       Bid       Change   Traded

May              1690.00    -10.00       Unquoted  –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

                 Offer       Change       Bid       Change   Traded

May              1495.00     +05.00       Unquoted  –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                 Offer       Change        Bid        Change   Traded

May              7100.00      00.00       Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                 Offer      Change         Bid        Change   Traded

May              495.00       00.00       Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.353)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 26

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 106,824 lots, or 6.48 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

May-22     6,066     6,098     6,057     6,083     6,103     6,077       -26     1,351     8,162

Jul-22     6,120     6,133     6,094     6,123     6,150     6,112       -38    78,740   113,450

Sep-22     5,988     5,991     5,949     5,976     6,013     5,967       -46    17,148    32,096

Nov-22     5,840     5,840     5,800     5,818     5,849     5,814       -35     9,201    14,951

Jan-23     5,801     5,801     5,760     5,776     5,812     5,778       -34       360     2,219

Mar-23     5,757     5,776     5,750     5,759     5,789     5,760       -29        24       367

Corn

Turnover: 633,277 lots, or 18.84 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

May-22     2,865     2,897     2,861     2,878     2,873     2,878         5    56,198     191,572

Jul-22     2,920     2,958     2,917     2,940     2,928     2,940        12    86,308     355,098

Sep-22     2,968     3,009     2,968     2,994     2,981     2,991        10   458,734   1,228,570

Nov-22     2,955     2,992     2,954     2,982     2,971     2,979         8    10,555      61,463

Jan-23     2,982     3,008     2,973     3,001     2,991     2,997         6    13,285      84,822

Mar-23     3,000     3,026     2,994     3,021     3,011     3,016         5     8,197      24,397

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,169,759 lots, or 46.43 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

May-22     4,070     4,142     4,070     4,101     4,143     4,104       -39    41,933      55,468

Jul-22     4,070     4,134     4,064     4,096     4,132     4,099       -33    61,814     219,986

Aug-22     4,023     4,087     4,018     4,050     4,097     4,050       -47     9,023     138,344

Sep-22     3,950     4,019     3,945     3,983     4,020     3,982       -38   921,077   1,312,029

Nov-22     3,876     3,942     3,872     3,897     3,935     3,905       -30    22,682      79,293

Dec-22     3,808     3,867     3,796     3,809     3,862     3,829       -33    12,206      24,640

Jan-23     3,725     3,790     3,716     3,747     3,767     3,755       -12    88,360     209,181

Mar-23     3,598     3,661     3,593     3,621     3,641     3,629       -12    12,664       8,982

Palm Oil

Turnover: 1,017,353 lots, or 11.40 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

May-22    12,610    13,016    12,520    13,010    13,016    12,736      -280    14,701    18,632

Jun-22    12,110    12,728    12,110    12,684    12,642    12,428      -214    32,889    46,961

Jul-22    11,708    12,226    11,682    12,196    12,220    11,902      -318    13,613    51,620

Aug-22    11,282    11,782    11,266    11,758    11,874    11,498      -376    13,477    28,526

Sep-22    11,000    11,436    10,888    11,400    11,572    11,132      -440   924,623   296,260

Oct-22    10,848    11,238    10,710    11,206    11,404    10,946      -458     4,243    11,328

Nov-22    10,750    11,066    10,640    11,066    11,230    10,786      -444        41       320

Dec-22    10,600    10,914    10,534    10,914    10,820    10,726       -94        12       138

Jan-23    10,570    10,986    10,450    10,950    11,088    10,716      -372    13,719    25,939

Feb-23    10,458    10,822    10,458    10,822    11,020    10,640      -380         4        53

Mar-23    10,120    10,694    10,120    10,676    10,858    10,424      -434        19        92

Apr-23    10,278    10,630    10,154    10,630    10,812    10,350      -462        12        13

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 699,453 lots, or 76.53 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

May-22    10,982    11,252    10,960    11,248    11,418    11,064      -354    14,665    18,925

Jul-22    11,018    11,304    10,996    11,290    11,434    11,120      -314    26,363    89,907

Aug-22    10,914    11,248    10,886    11,210    11,330    11,014      -316     9,011    55,645

Sep-22    10,830    11,138    10,806    11,130    11,266    10,938      -328   608,576   423,982

Nov-22    10,696    11,018    10,696    11,012    11,154    10,834      -320    24,702    24,204

Dec-22    10,666    10,968    10,656    10,968    11,104    10,750      -354     7,800     5,674

Jan-23    10,660    10,924    10,610    10,924    11,072    10,738      -334     8,318    18,321

Mar-23    10,552    10,786    10,494    10,750    10,944    10,622      -322        18       188

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322