About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Apr 22

    WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers

totaled 56.779 million pounds, in March, 13.2% above the previous

month, and 60.4% above March 2021, the U.S. Department Agriculture

said Friday.

    In thousand pounds.

                                                                   public

                       Mar 31     Feb 28     Mar 31      Feb 28   warehouse

                         2022       2022       2021       2021   stocks/Mar

pork bellies           56,779     50,139     35,398     37,556

orange juice          479,450    457,698    664,497    662,608

french fries          965,151    992,338    950,494    958,016

other potatoes        212,809    219,569    196,076    201,494

chicken rstr (whole)   13,181     11,931     13,103     12,117

ham                    74,055     84,248     60,776     92,122

total pork            487,190    479,891    451,042    483,374     409,368

total beef            536,887    531,500    482,990    512,528     525,279

total red meat      1,050,765  1,036,625    967,931  1,031,677     960,010

total chicken         777,454    782,510    739,826    769,221

total turkey          308,201    292,897    350,589    320,144

total poultry       1,087,426  1,077,457  1,093,198  1,092,255     990,565

===============================================================================

COTTON       

General Comments:  Cotton was lower after trading both sides of unchanged last week on weaker export sales for the week.  Support came from dry weather forecasts for the Great Plains and on news late last week that India has waived import taxes on Cotton until September.  India will now increase imports as world and US Cotton is now lower cost to importers.  Much of the western parts of the Great Plains have missed out on recent precipitation events and are likely to miss out again this week although there will be a little rain in the region.  Production of the next US crop is at risk now.  There was talk about less demand for the market in part from Fed moves to control the inflation now seen in the US and around the world.  Traders are getting worried about a potential recession caused by Fed tightening.  One Fed governor said he thought interest rates could be imports due to Covid and is also closing down a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation.  raise a full point this year.  China has been buying even with the port closures and domestic difficulties caused by renewed Covid lockdowns.  Traders are worried about Chinese demand moving forward.  China has closed the ports for imports due to Covid and is also closing down a number of cities.

Overnight News:  The Delta will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures and the Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 130.85 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,101 bales, from 1,101 bales yesterday.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 13640, 13120, an 12740 May.  Support is at 13460, 13160, and 13040 May, with resistance of 13900, 14620 and 14740 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 19, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #033661                                                              Open Interest is   275,946

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   71,136    11,188    56,879    45,322   189,861    81,244     9,296   254,581   267,225:   21,365     8,721

    : Changes from: April 12, 2022             (Change in open interest:     -30,648)         :

    :   -4,986      -630   -13,784    -8,790   -14,711    -2,661    -1,331   -30,220   -30,456:     -427      -192

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     25.8       4.1      20.6      16.4      68.8      29.4       3.4      92.3      96.8:      7.7       3.2

    : Total Traders:   273          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      123        29        77        54        65        50        19       248       173:

——————————————————————————————————————-


FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was a little lower last week in consolidation trading that showed big swings on either side of unchanged.  The market now knows it is short Oranges and short juice production but is also worried about domestic demand destruction as pills are becoming cheaper again.  The greening disease has taken its toll on the US crop and the previous Brazil crop was down significantly due to drought.  Trends are still up on the daily charts.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good, but it is drier now and some tree stress could develop soon.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.

Overnight News:  Florida should get isolated showers.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   Brazil should get isolated showers and near normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 173.00, 169.00, and 164.00 May, with resistance at 180.00, 194.00, and 196.00 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 19, 2022

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               :

CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is    14,638                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    1,739    11,751     2,794         0        12     4,174         0        76     1,209       318     1,473 :

: Changes from:     April 12, 2022                                                                             :

:     -402    -1,082        60         0         0       -99         0       -18      -283        36    -1,208 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     11.9      80.3      19.1       0.0       0.1      28.5       0.0       0.5       8.3       2.2      10.1 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    61                     :

:       15        15         6         0         .        19         0         .        12         5         6 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE 

General Comments New York and London closed higher last week on ideas of les on offer in the cash market.  Deliveries from Vietnam and Brazil Robusta are noted to be decreasing as the harvest is now complete.  Indonesian offers are increasing due to plentiful stocks inside the country.  Arabica deliveries from Brazil are less in part due to less production and in part due to a stronger Real that has cut prices paid to farmers inside the country.  Less deliveries are reported from Vietnam now as producers have sold most of the crop and are holding the rest and waiting for higher prices.  Good growing conditions for the next crop in Brazil are still around but flowering is reported to be uneven this year in at least some areas. 

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.105 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 199.92 ct/lb.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers.  ICE NY said that 355 delivery notices were tendered against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 355 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 233 and 243.00 July.  Support is at 223.00, 218.00, and 213.00 July, and resistance is at 233.00, 237.00 and 242.00 July.  Trends in London are mixed.   Support is at 2070, 2060, and 2030 July, and resistance is at 2140, 2150, and 2170 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 19, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #083731                                                              Open Interest is   255,382

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   32,739    10,645    61,881    95,622   162,132    54,904    14,272   245,145   248,929:   10,237     6,453

    : Changes from: April 12, 2022             (Change in open interest:      -3,537)         :

    :   -4,265     3,259    -1,122     2,839    -5,279       -80      -594    -2,627    -3,735:     -909       199

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     12.8       4.2      24.2      37.4      63.5      21.5       5.6      96.0      97.5:      4.0       2.5

    : Total Traders:   387          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      121        62       104       126       130        43        22       336       284:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 04/19/2022

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long      Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  116,194       64,773        71,689        3,538     7,150         1,530

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          55.7%         61.7%         3.0%      6.2%          1.3%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   136            45            41           12         5            9

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                      Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

  21,287         5,814         1,821     3,938       11,657          13,335

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  18.3%          5.0%          1.6%      3.4%        10.0%           11.5%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    26            17            9         6            16              17

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  5,972        3,198

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  5.1%         2.8%

SUGAR               

General Comments:  New York and London were both lower last week.  Increased offers from India and Thailand are expected if the market continues to rally.  Pakistan is also increasing its offers due to good crops there.  The US government is permitting refiners to blend 15% ethanol into the fuel mixtures instead of 10% for the coming Summer.  News reports indicate that little export activity is taking place from Ukraine with the ports basically closed.  Russia said it is still exporting from Black Sea ports.  India and Thailand expect improved crops this year.  Thailand expects to produce about10 million tons of sugar this year, up 33% from last year.  India said it could produce more than 9.0 million tons of Sugar.  Brazil could also have better Sugarcane production this year but the strengthening Real implies that most of the refining will be for Ethanol and not Sugar.  CONAB estimated Sugarcane production at 585.2 million tons for 2021-22.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.  India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1900 July.  Support is at 1900, 1880, and 1850 July and resistance is at 1950, 1990, and 2010 July.  Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 526.00, 524.00, and 521.00 August and resistance is at 543.00, 548.00, and 554.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 19, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #080732                                                              Open Interest is 1,039,651

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :  167,673    48,558   176,229   268,988   701,078   317,274    60,191   930,164   986,057:  109,487    53,594

    : Changes from: April 12, 2022             (Change in open interest:     -59,209)         :

    :   -5,754     2,222   -26,219   -19,035   -26,205    -2,323    -7,616   -53,331   -57,817:   -5,878    -1,392

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     16.1       4.7      17.0      25.9      67.4      30.5       5.8      89.5      94.8:     10.5       5.2

    : Total Traders:   251          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       88        33        78        73        76        42        18       232       180:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 04/19/2022

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  71,833        22,964        58,454        9,121      3,993         2,246

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          32.0%         81.4%         12.7%      5.6%          3.1%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   107            30            38            8          3            5

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                      Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

  26,392         1,429         2,116     1,915        606             610

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  36.7%          2.0%          2.9%      2.7%         0.8%            0.8%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    33            5             13        8            3               7

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  6,469        2,379

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  9.0%         3.3%

COCOA                                                                                 

General Comments New York and London closed lower again last week and the trends are down on the charts.  The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa, but some are concerned about dry weather that could affect the yields for the midcrop harvest.  Some showers are in the forecast for West Africa and have been for several weeks, but the precipitation was less than normal last week and net drying is reported.  The weather is good in Southeast Asia.  Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels, but Ivory Coast arrivals are ahead of last year.

Overnight News:  Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.020 million bags.  ICE said that 106 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 106 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2400 May.  Support is at 2400, 2380, and 2350 May, with resistance at 2520, 2570, and 2650 May.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1710, 1670, and 1660 May.  Support is at 1710, 1700, and 1670 May, with resistance at 1750, 1770, and 1790 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 19, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #073732                                                              Open Interest is   278,758

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   43,627    33,407    63,558    97,970   151,772    57,797    21,384   262,951   270,121:   15,807     8,637

    : Changes from: April 12, 2022             (Change in open interest:        -691)         :

    :      390     4,993    -2,082     3,760      -742    -1,402    -2,170       665        -2:   -1,356      -688

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     15.7      12.0      22.8      35.1      54.4      20.7       7.7      94.3      96.9:      5.7       3.1

    : Total Traders:   222          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       66        61        67        51        37        30        19       186       153:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 04/19/2022

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  291,517       156,897       181,142       24,885     37,544       22,036

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          53.8%         62.1%         8.5%       12.9%         7.6%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   131            49            43           12          7            12

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                       Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long         Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

  34,800         6,665        13,809     11,164        614            26,295

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  11.9%          2.3%          4.7%      3.8%          0.2%            9.0%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    24            15            15        15            4               15

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  1,631        3,412

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  0.6%         1.2%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322