About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON        

General Comments:  Cotton was lower on weaker export sales for the week.  Support came from dry weather forecasts for the Great Plains and on news late last week that India has waived import taxes on Cotton until September.  India will now increase imports as world and US Cotton is now lower cost to importers.  Much of the western parts of the Great Plains have missed out on recent precipitation events and are likely to miss out again this week.  Production of the next US crop is at risk now.  There was talk about less demand for the market in part from Fed moves to control the inflation now seen in the US and around the world.  Traders are getting worried about a potential recession caused by Fed tightening.  One Fed governor said he thought interest rates could be raise a full point this year.  China has been buying even with the port closures and domestic difficulties caused by renewed Covid lockdowns.  Traders are worried about Chinese demand moving forward.  China has closed the ports for imports due to Covid and is also closing down a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation.

Overnight News:  The Delta will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures and the Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 132.89 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,101 bales, from 1,101 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 13640, 13120, an 12740 May.  Support is at 13460, 13160, and 13040 May, with resistance of 14620, 14740 and 14860 May.

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ was higher yesterday in consolidation trading  The market now knows it is short Oranges and short juice production but is also worried about domestic demand destruction as pills are becoming cheaper again.  The greening disease has taken its toll on the US crop and the previous Brazil crop was down significantly due to drought.  Trends are still up on the daily charts.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good, but it is drier now and some tree stress could develop soon.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near normal.   Brazil should get isolated showers and near normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 169.00, 164.00, and 161.00 May, with resistance at 180.00, 194.00, and 196.00 May.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack for Week Ended Apr 9 

Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack

In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)

WEEK ENDING:

4/9/2022                                   Corresponding

                              Current        Week Last

                                 Week           Season

                              4/9/2022        4/10/2021   % Change

CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK

Carry Over

Bulk                            189.81           275.10     -31.0%

Retail/Institutional              4.69             4.99      -6.0%

Total                           194.50           280.08     -30.6%

Pack

Bulk                              2.02             3.16     -36.1%

Retail/Institutional              1.36             1.41      -3.1%

Total Pack                        3.38             4.56     -26.0%

Reprocessed                      -2.91            -3.39     -14.2%

Pack from Fruit                   0.47             1.17     -59.9%

Receipts & Losses

Net Gain or Loss                  0.00             0.10     -97.6%

Imports – Foreign                 8.23             4.80      71.3%

Domestic Receipts                 0.10             0.56     -82.9%

Receipts of Florida Product

 from Non-Reporting Entit         0.28             0.00         NA

Chilled OJ used in FCOJ           0.71             0.11     565.8%

Reprocessed FCTJ                  0.05             0.02     204.4%

Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack

Bulk                            198.29           280.45     -29.3%

Retail/Institutional              6.05             6.39      -5.4%

Total                           204.33           286.84     -28.8%

MOVEMENT

Bulk

Domestic                          4.60             2.76      66.9%

Exports                           0.33             0.23      40.4%

Total (Bulk)                      4.93             2.99      64.9%

Retail/Institutional

Domestic                          1.18             1.35     -13.2%

Exports                           0.00             0.00         NC

Total (Retail/Inst)               1.18             1.35     -13.2%

Total Movement                    6.11             4.34      40.6%

ENDING INVENTORY

Bulk                            193.35           277.46     -30.3%

Retail/Institutional              4.87             5.04      -3.3%

Ending Inventory                198.23           282.49     -29.8%

                                            Total Same

                         Total Season      Period Last

                              To Date           Season

                              9-Apr-22        10-Apr-21  % Change

CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK

Carry Over

Bulk                            226.65           254.09     -10.8%

Retail/Institutional              6.08             5.56       9.4%

Total                           232.73           259.65     -10.4%

Pack

Bulk                             53.04            56.33      -5.8%

Retail/Institutional             31.83            27.12      17.4%

Total Pack                       84.87            83.45       1.7%

Reprocessed                     -66.58           -57.99      14.8%

Pack from Fruit                  18.29            25.47     -28.2%

Receipts & Losses

Net Gain or Loss                 -1.28            -0.75      71.1%

Imports – Foreign               101.53           134.58     -24.6%

Domestic Receipts                 3.07             6.14     -50.0%

Receipts of Florida Product

 from Non-Reporting Entit         5.04             0.15    3307.5%

Chilled OJ used in FCOJ           1.23             5.00     -75.5%

Reprocessed FCTJ                  2.51             1.23     103.7%

Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack

Bulk                            325.21           398.78     -18.4%

Retail/Institutional             37.91            32.68      16.0%

Total                           363.12           431.47     -15.8%

MOVEMENT

Bulk                            120.45           110.44       9.1%

Domestic                         11.41            10.89       4.8%

Exports                         131.86           121.33       8.7%

Total (Bulk)

Retail/Institutional

Domestic                         33.04            27.65      19.5%

Exports                           0.00             0.00         NC

Total (Retail/Inst)              33.04            27.65      19.5%

Total Movement                  164.90           148.97      10.7%

ENDING INVENTORY

Bulk                            193.35           277.46     -30.3%

Retail/Institutional              4.87             5.04      -3.3%

Ending Inventory                198.23           282.49     -29.8%

COFFEE   

General Comments:  New York and London closed higher yesterday on ideas of les on offer in the cash market.  Deliveries from Vietnam and Brazil Robusta are noted to be decreasing as the harvest is now complete.  Indonesian offers are increasing due to plentiful stocks inside the country.  Arabica deliveries from Brazil are less in part due to less production and in part due to a stronger Real that has cut prices paid to farmers inside the country.  Less deliveries are reported from Vietnam now as producers have sold most of the crop and are holding the rest and waiting for higher prices.  Good growing conditions for the next crop in Brazil are still around but flowering is reported to be uneven this year in at least some areas.   

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.100 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 200.57 ct/lb.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers.  ICE NY said that 0 delivery notices were tendered against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 233 and 243.00 July.  Support is at 223.00, 218.00, and 213.00 July, and resistance is at 233.00, 237.00 and 242.00 July.  Trends in London are mixed.   Support is at 2100, 2070, and 2060 July, and resistance is at 2140, 2150, and 2170 July[JS1] .

DJ Uganda March Coffee Exports Down 16% on Drought 

  By Nicholas Bariyo

  KAMPALA, Uganda–Uganda’s coffee exports dropped by 16% in March due to drought causing lower-than-expected yields, the Uganda Coffee Development Authority said Friday.

  Coffee shipments dropped to 478,023 60-kilogram bags in March, from the 571,799 bags exported in the same month last season after drought cut yields from the main harvest in the Central and Eastern growing regions, UCDA said.

  It was the third consecutive monthly drop since the start of the year due to drought. More than 20 million people across East and the Horn of Africa are experiencing severe food shortages after the worst drought in 40 years decimated harvests across the region, according to the United Nations.

  The value of Uganda’s coffee shipments however jumped by 51% to hit $81 million aided by improved global coffee prices.

  March coffee exports brought the cumulative seven-month shipments since the start of the coffee year to 2.9 million bags, a 1% rise compared with the same period last year. Uganda’s coffee year runs from October to September the following year.

  Uganda, which grows mainly the bitter tasting robusta coffee variety used in blends and instant drinks, exports the bulk of it’s coffee output to Europe, the U.S. and Asian markets.

DJ Uganda March Coffee Exports Down 16% on Drought 

  By Nicholas Bariyo

  KAMPALA, Uganda–Uganda’s coffee exports dropped by 16% in March due to drought causing lower-than-expected yields, the Uganda Coffee Development Authority said Friday.

  Coffee shipments dropped to 478,023 60-kilogram bags in March, from the 571,799 bags exported in the same month last season after drought cut yields from the main harvest in the Central and Eastern growing regions, UCDA said.

  It was the third consecutive monthly drop since the start of the year due to drought. More than 20 million people across East and the Horn of Africa are experiencing severe food shortages after the worst drought in 40 years decimated harvests across the region, according to the United Nations.

  The value of Uganda’s coffee shipments however jumped by 51% to hit $81 million aided by improved global coffee prices.

  March coffee exports brought the cumulative seven-month shipments since the start of the coffee year to 2.9 million bags, a 1% rise compared with the same period last year. Uganda’s coffee year runs from October to September the following year.

  Uganda, which grows mainly the bitter tasting robusta coffee variety used in blends and instant drinks, exports the bulk of it’s coffee output to Europe, the U.S. and Asian markets.

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York and London were both higher yesterday in recovery trading.  Increased offers from India and Thailand are expected if the market continues to rally.  Pakistan is also increasing its offers due to good crops there.  The US government is permitting refiners to blend 15% ethanol into the fuel mixtures instead of 10% for the coming Summer.  News reports indicate that little export activity is taking place from Ukraine with the ports basically closed.  Russia said it is still exporting from Black Sea ports.  India and Thailand expect improved crops this year.  Thailand expects to produce about10 million tons of sugar this year, up 33% from last year.  India said it could produce more than 9.0 million tons of Sugar.  Brazil could also have better Sugarcane production this year but the strengthening Real implies that most of the refining will be for Ethanol and not Sugar.  CONAB estimated Sugarcane production at 585.2 million tons for 2021-22.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.  India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1950 and 1900 July.  Support is at 1950, 1930, and 1910 July and resistance is at 1990, 2010, and 2040 July.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 535.00 and 522.00 August.  Support is at 533.00, 532.00, and 526.00 August and resistance is at 548.00, 554.00, and 560.00 August.

COCOA                                                                                   

General Comments:  New York and London closed a little higher in consolidation trading.  The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa, but some are concerned about dry weather that could affect the yields for the midcrop harvest.  Some showers are in the forecast for West Africa and have been for several weeks, but the precipitation was less than normal last week and net drying is reported.  The weather is good in Southeast Asia.  Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels, but Ivory Coast arrivals are ahead of last year.

Overnight News:  Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.969 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2490, 2400, and 2380 May, with resistance at 2570, 2650, and 2680 May.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1710, 1670, and 1660 May.  Support is at 1740, 1710, and 1700 May, with resistance at 1790, 1820, and 1840 May.

DJ Asia Cocoa Grindings Slipped 0.3% in First Quarter, Association Says 

  By Yi Wei Wong

   Asian cocoa-bean grindings slipped 0.3% on year in the first quarter, according to figures released Friday by the Cocoa Association of Asia & Enterprise Singapore.

   Cocoa grindings totaled 213,313 metric tons in the first three months of the year, compared with 213,858 tons in the same period last year, the figures showed. Cocoa grindings fell 7.8% compared with the previous quarter.

  The result “reflects the continued resilience of demand for cocoa & chocolate products in Asia Pacific despite the multiple headwinds in the global geopolitical situation,” the association said.

   Cocoa grindings–the volume of cocoa beans processed into the butters and powders used to make chocolate–are often taken as a proxy for cocoa demand.

   Cocoa Association of Asia is a trade association that groups the major companies involved in the cocoa-bean trade and processing, in warehousing and related logistical activities in Asia.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322