About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Apr 21 

Winnipeg — The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics

for the week ended April 17, 2022. Figures in thousands of metric tons.

Source: Canadian Grain Commission.

           Wheat   Durum  Oats   Barley Flax  Canola  Peas   Corn   Total

COMMERCIAL STOCKS

This Week 2932.0  804.5  299.7  355.1  48.3  1514.8  275.3  384.1  7195.0

Week Ago  2851.2  784.8  299.7  329.4  50.1  1576.5  267.7  409.7  7097.9

Year Ago  2339.2  847.5  298.7  525.5  75.1  1689.8  373.1   90.8  6966.0

PRODUCER DELIVERIES

This Week  255.4   30.5   30.7   29.8   1.7   213.4   17.2    5.1   632.5

Week Ago   230.1   35.9   27.5   35.1   2.8   244.6   28.6    8.3   667.8

To Date  11643.5 1972.7 1536.0 3151.1 171.8 11574.5 1612.6  534.1 34341.4

Year Ago 15981.3 4739.3 2193.7 4074.5 396.1 16227.8 3211.9  298.2 50372.8

TERMINAL RECEIPTS

This Week  261.7   40.9    0.9   35.3   0.0    43.2   50.7   72.7   559.9

Week Ago   238.8   35.0    0.3   12.6   0.0    71.2   33.0  106.5   557.3

To Date  10306.0 2258.4  156.5 1864.8  27.0  4917.2 1028.0 1233.2 26451.6

Year Ago 16288.8 5446.6  502.0 2880.8 190.9  8842.4 2158.6  894.3 42756.7

EXPORTS

This Week  174.1   34.0    7.6    2.1   1.1    55.9   50.4  113.3   440.6

Week Ago    67.4   42.9    9.3    3.8   3.2   116.2   68.2  100.5   446.8

To Date   8076.3 1728.4  871.1 1772.1  68.2  4227.2 1043.9  965.3 21932.3

Year Ago 14077.2 4482.9 1442.3 2962.2 249.0  8465.0 2118.6  724.0 38895.9

DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE

This Week   37.7    4.6   10.1   25.8   2.3   185.4    4.9   57.2   341.5

Week Ago    66.6   10.6   17.4   28.9   1.2   229.1    7.1   64.7   467.9

To Date   2896.1  310.9  617.3 1310.7  51.2  6690.6  212.4 1880.0 15374.0

Year Ago  2835.4  409.2  561.6  797.0  44.7  7684.2  136.5  570.4 14281.2

Source: Commodity News Service Canada

(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell

204-782-5944)

WHEAT 

General Comments:   Wheat markets were lower again yesterday on what appeared to be follow through speculative selling tied as wire reports from Russia indicated that the country has a very big Wheat crop.  They have been offering into the world marke4t at relatively cheap prices..  The western US Great Plains remained too dry and crop conditions were very poor and the war continued in Ukraine with little if any ideas of a cease fire mentioned.   Ports are closed in Ukraine but Russian shippers and exporters are offering and some sales are being reported at Black Sea ports despite the high insurance costs associated with the boats coming into the sea.  Ukraine can rail the exports to the EU for shipment but the amount that can be moved is very limited.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get isolated to scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near to below normal.  Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers.  Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 1036, 971, and 963 May.  Support is at 1045, 1017, and 1014 May, with resistance at 1098, 1135, and 1156 May.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 1106, 1090, and 1065 May, with resistance at 1167, 1200, and 1242 May.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed .  Support is at 1144, 1128, and 1116 May, and resistance is at 1185, 1207, and 1222 May.

RICE:                                                 

General Comments:  Rice was higher yesterday as the market continued to consolidate.  The weekly export sales report showed increased sales from the previous week.  Sales were moderate.  The overall rally is expected to start again very soon.  It looks like supplies are tight and demand is holding together in this market.  The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere in light volumes.  Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal.  Growing conditions are considered good for crops right now although it has been a little cold.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1569, 1563, and 1548 May and resistance is at 1624, 1644, and 1670 May.

CORN AND OATS: 

General Comments:  Corn closed lower yesterday on reports that Brazilian and Argentine Corn were offered at prices much lower than those of the US   The price weakness was in the nearby months as better demand for South American Corn due to the loss of export potential from Ukraine went against the cheaper South American offers.  New crop futures spent the day a little lower on forecasts for warmer but still wet weather for the US Midwest.  The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter.  The ports remain closed and Ukraine can rail out to the EU in limited amounts.  Russia is also a Corn exporter and no product is moving from either country at this time  China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response.  The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic.  The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people can’t make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes.  However, China has been a very big buyer of US Corn over the last couple of weeks as they need the feed and Ukraine cannot currently offer any supply.  President Biden has said he will permit the use of higher ethanol blends in gasoline this Summer in an effort to control inflation and high fuel prices.

Overnight News:   China bought 1.347 million tons of US Corn and Mexico bought 281,000 tons of US Corn. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 793, 783, and 768 May, and resistance is at 820, 826, and 832 May.  Trends in Oats are down with no objectives.  Support is at 691, 674, and 655 May, and resistance is at 724, 741, and 766 May.

SOYBEANS 

General Comments:  Soybeans and the products were higher on the reduced production from South America and on increasing concerns in the US about the cold and wet Midwest weather keeping farmers from the fields for planting.  Demand has been strong even with a slower export pace from the US with NOPA showing a higher crush rate than anticipate by the trade earlier in the week.  President Biden has said he will support expanded use of bio fuels this Summer in an effort to control higher fuel prices. More sanctions are now threatened for Russia due to what the world is seeing in Ukraine right now.  There are still worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there.  China has not been mentioned as a Soybeans buyer in the daily sales reports from USDA for the last couple of weeks.  Supplies available to the export market from South America remain limited.  Both Ukraine and Russia are major exporters of Sunoil and control about 80% of the market combined but not much Sunoil is moving from either country these days.  China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America.  They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs.  Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market.  China said yesterday that it imported less Soybeans from the US in March than a year ago.  The world situation is still tightening as Brazil and Argentina harvested less Soybeans.

Overnight News:   Mexico bought 144,000 tons of US Soybeans.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1790 and 1880 May.  Support is at 1697, 1681, and 1652 May, and resistance is at 1759, 1768, and 1780 May.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.   Support is at 463.00, 453.00, and 448.00 May, and resistance is at 472.00 480.00, and 485.00 May.  Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 8220 and 8550 May.  Support is at 7990, 7860, and 7740 May, with resistance at 8240, 8360, and 8480 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL 

General Comments:  Palm Oil was higher today on currency considerations and as Indonesia announced it would ban Palm Oil exports to help control higher internal prices.  Hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported.  A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports.  The economy could slow down and affect demand.  Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production.  Indonesia is once again making moves to cut the availability of Palm Oil for export as it manages high internal prices.  Canola was higher along with Chicago.   It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting.  There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well.  Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.  Futures prices are still in a trading range.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 1153.00, 1141.00, and 1133.00 May, with resistance at 1183.00, 1196.00, and 1208.00 May.  Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 6740 July.  Support is at 6150, 6020, and 5910 July, with resistance at 6550, 6650, and 6770 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry.  Temperatures should average below normal.

 

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn 

HRW 

SRW 

Soybeans 

Soybean Meal 

Soybean Oil 

March 

100 May 

250 May 

135 May 

132 May 

April 

100 May 

250 May 

135 May 

132 May 

May 

103 July 

230 July 

120 July 

142 July 

 

 

[JS1] 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 21 

     WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures.

     Source: ICE Futures

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

                     Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region         1152.60   -10.00     May  2022    dn  5.70

Basis: Thunder Bay  1239.00    60.00     May  2022    up 16.40

Basis: Vancouver    1249.00    70.00     May  2022    up 16.40

     All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

     *Quote for previous day.

     Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,

or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 22 

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

May             1687.50    +10.00      Unquoted    –        –

Jun             1637.50    +10.00      Unquoted    –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep     1507.50    +10.00      Unquoted    –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec     1452.50    +12.50      Unquoted    –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB,     Malaysian ports

                 Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

May             1690.00     +10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jun             1640.00     +10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep     1510.00     +10.00      Unquoted    –       –

Oct/Nov/Dec     1455.00     +12.50      Unquoted    –       –

RBD palm stearin, FOB,  Malaysian ports

                 Offer      Change       Bid       Change   Traded

May              1620.00     00.00       Unquoted  –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

                 Offer       Change       Bid       Change   Traded

May              1420.00     -20.00       Unquoted  –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                 Offer       Change        Bid        Change   Traded

Apr              6900.00     +80.00        Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                 Offer      Change         Bid        Change   Traded

Apr              486.00      00.00         Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.323)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 22 

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 71,884 lots, or 4.38 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

May-22     6,086     6,115     6,078     6,096     6,136     6,092       -44     1,044     8,649

Jul-22     6,123     6,153     6,121     6,129     6,151     6,137       -14    52,075   109,121

Sep-22     6,001     6,022     5,994     6,003     6,023     6,009       -14    12,179    29,641

Nov-22     5,850     5,864     5,844     5,852     5,875     5,854       -21     6,335    14,178

Jan-23     5,821     5,828     5,810     5,818     5,832     5,816       -16       231     1,968

Mar-23     5,793     5,805     5,793     5,793     5,812     5,795       -17        20       337

Corn

Turnover: 744,033 lots, or 22.18 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

May-22     2,906     2,908     2,874     2,877     2,906     2,891       -15    91,109     255,128

Jul-22     2,965     2,965     2,928     2,931     2,960     2,948       -12    91,840     352,717

Sep-22     3,005     3,019     2,981     2,985     3,013     3,000       -13   520,642   1,220,843

Nov-22     2,989     2,994     2,964     2,966     2,989     2,979       -10    14,807      62,303

Jan-23     3,011     3,018     2,991     2,993     3,012     3,004        -8    18,191      83,406

Mar-23     3,035     3,038     3,017     3,017     3,032     3,028        -4     7,444      26,552

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,352,720 lots, or 55.34 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.         Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                    Interest

May-22     4,245     4,245     4,168     4,188     4,218     4,215        -3     114,243     111,717

Jul-22     4,220     4,238     4,166     4,183     4,209     4,199       -10      71,242     227,694

Aug-22     4,183     4,200     4,130     4,141     4,158     4,156        -2      15,259     138,393

Sep-22     4,102     4,139     4,069     4,075     4,091     4,097         6   1,019,950   1,386,512

Nov-22     3,990     4,034     3,959     3,979     3,988     3,990         2      29,503      77,757

Dec-22     3,915     3,989     3,882     3,901     3,910     3,914         4      15,710      23,369

Jan-23     3,830     3,878     3,796     3,807     3,827     3,829         2      77,011     182,967

Mar-23     3,710     3,740     3,671     3,682     3,702     3,698        -4       9,802       7,722

Palm Oil

Turnover: 954,653 lots, or 10.74 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

May-22    12,568    12,700    12,484    12,536    12,582    12,578        -4    24,974    41,277

Jun-22    12,054    12,276    11,968    12,034    12,094    12,134        40    20,083    48,739

Jul-22    11,728    11,912    11,596    11,654    11,712    11,762        50    13,256    49,297

Aug-22    11,354    11,602    11,278    11,336    11,410    11,446        36    11,200    25,876

Sep-22    11,148    11,364    11,024    11,078    11,186    11,186         0   866,278   298,582

Oct-22    11,012    11,228    10,888    10,946    11,054    11,078        24     5,448    10,401

Nov-22    10,850    11,000    10,850    10,868    10,920    10,914        -6        18       318

Dec-22    10,910    10,910    10,792    10,792    10,786    10,870        84         3       131

Jan-23    10,764    10,924    10,620    10,684    10,760    10,764         4    13,347    24,344

Feb-23    10,648    10,648    10,610    10,610    10,648    10,628       -20         2        53

Mar-23    10,556    10,650    10,460    10,500    10,538    10,532        -6        39        93

Apr-23    10,464    10,660    10,464    10,518    10,538    10,570        32         5         5

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 750,583 lots, or 83.05 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

May-22    11,190    11,310    11,124    11,214    11,168    11,206        38    28,235    36,257

Jul-22    11,138    11,310    11,116    11,218    11,160    11,214        54    29,172    92,043

Aug-22    11,064    11,236    11,036    11,150    11,076    11,140        64    11,888    55,979

Sep-22    11,016    11,166    10,958    11,072    11,008    11,062        54   629,370   444,427

Nov-22    10,900    11,040    10,844    10,950    10,886    10,942        56    33,656    23,524

Dec-22    10,830    10,984    10,798    10,896    10,846    10,892        46    11,713     5,302

Jan-23    10,806    10,940    10,758    10,860    10,788    10,846        58     6,533    16,937

Mar-23    10,638    10,798    10,638    10,728    10,730    10,710       -20        16       189

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322