
Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Grains Report 04/21/2022
Opinión del Mercado: Precios mezclados ayer con frijol de soya por encima con ideas de menos en Sur America y demanda para EUA, pero por abajo en trigo por la falta de noticias nuevas. Maiz por encima después de negociar por ambos lados durante el día.. Hay miedo del clima americano, especialmente en el Planeo Grande donde hace seco. Hace lluvia y frio al centro del país y los productores no pueden sembrar. Debe calientar en el Cinturón en los próximos días, pero la lluvia sigue llegando cada dos o tres dias. El progreso de la producción americana es mas o menos normal por ahora, pero hace frio en el Cinturón y sera difícil a hacer mucho para la mayoría de los productores. La condición de la producción de trigo invierno esta mal aunque mejor que la semana pasada. El Presidente Biden quiere utilizar etanol y bio combustibles para bajar los precios de gasolina y otros combustibles aquí. Países sin nombres compraron 123,650 toneladas de frijol de soya americano.
Posiciones en el Mercado
Cobertura de Compra: s
Cobertura de Venta:
Especuladores:
Tendencias de los Gráficos
Fríjol de Soya Mayo: Las tendencias están a subir, con objetivos de 1790, y 1808 Mayo. Apoyo a 1697, 1681, y 1652 Mayo, y resistencia a 1759, 1768, y 1780 Mayo.
Harina de Soya Mayo: Las tendencias están mezcladas. Apoyo a 463.00, 453.00, y 448.00 Mayo, y resistencia a 472.00, 480.00, y 485.00 Mayo.
Aceite de Soya Mayo: Las tendencias están a subir, con objetivos de 8220 y 8550 Mayo. Apoyo a 7860, 7720, y 7660 Mayo, y resistencia a 8130, 8240, y 8360 Mayo.
Trigo KC Mayo: Las tendencias están mezcladas. Compradores a 1143, 1106, y 1090 Mayo, y vendedores a 1200, 1242, y 1292 Mayo.
Trigo Chicago Mayo: Las tendencias están mezcladas. Compradores a 1067, 1045, y 1017 Mayo, y vendedores a 1098, 1135, y 1156 Mayo.
Trigo Minn Mayo: Las tendencias están mezcladas. Compradores a 1145, 1128, y 1116 Mayo y vendedores a 1185, 1207, y 1222 Mayo.
Maíz Mayo: Las tendencias están a subir con objetivos de 804 y 819 Mayo. Compradores a 793, 783, y 768 Mayo, y vendedores a 820, 826, y 832 Mayo.
Noticias:
DJ IGC Raises Grain Production Forecast
By Yusuf Khan
The International Grains Council raised its global grain production forecast for 2021-22, largely spurred by a bump in Brazilian corn production.
Global grain production is expected to hit 2,287 million metric tons in the current season, up 3% year on year from 2020-21, and an increase by 3 million tons from the IGC’s previous forecast in March, the council said in a new report released Thursday.
The Council said that inventories this year were likely to grow by 7 million tons to 608 million tons in total, partly spurred by a lack of seaborne exports from Ukraine amid the conflict.
Production in 2022-23 is likely to fall to 2,275 million tons, slightly down from the current year, with Black sea production affected in particular, the IGC said. The forecast includes reductions in the output of corn by 13 million tons, sorghum by 2 million tons and wheat by 1 million tons. There are, however, anticipated gains for barley and oats.
The IGC did caveat its first forecast for the new season, saying that black sea figures could change given the Ukraine war and the region’s uncertainty when it comes to production.
Grain consumption is also projected to hit a new peak of 2,302 million tons “despite forecasts for slower than average growth in feed and food uses, tied to potentially high prices and resulting demand rationing.” Consumption this year is forecast to hit 2,281 million tons.
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Apr 21
For the week ended Apr 14, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 26.3 238.4 19264.6 25369.6 2614.5 2141.2
hrw -55.8 81.0 7492.7 8620.8 1077.2 584.7
srw 17.4 78.0 2852.4 1774.5 414.6 587.0
hrs 78.1 28.5 5399.1 7680.1 753.8 567.9
white -13.7 50.9 3330.5 6629.6 353.4 337.2
durum 0.4 0.0 189.9 664.6 15.5 64.4
corn 879.2 389.6 56648.7 67198.3 20078.7 3363.4
soybeans 460.2 1240.0 57095.8 60826.9 11078.6 10161.3
soymeal 101.8 27.0 9498.4 9259.9 2715.0 370.4
soyoil 1.2 0.0 646.9 659.1 141.0 0.0
upland cotton 50.5 136.1 14369.8 15072.2 6589.9 2796.6
pima cotton 3.8 5.5 451.3 756.6 123.7 40.1
sorghum -53.6 0.0 6704.5 7050.8 2203.9 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 20.5 29.2 5.8 8.6
rice 64.7 0.0 2588.5 2910.5 559.4 0.0
US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn
HRW
SRW
Soybeans
Soybean Meal
Soybean Oil
March
123 May
250 May
130 May
150 May
April
123 May
250 May
130 May
150 May
May
123 July
230 July
135 July
155 July
[JS1]
DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 20
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1158.30 -10.00 May 2022 dn 2.70
Basis: Thunder Bay 1222.60 60.00 May 2022 dn 6.10
Basis: Vancouver 1232.60 70.00 May 2022 dn 6.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 21
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
May 1677.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1627.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1497.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1440.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1680.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1630.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1500.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1442.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1620.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1440.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 6820.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 486.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.289)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 21
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 109,851 lots, or 6.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 6,156 6,182 6,089 6,091 6,088 6,136 48 4,451 8,776
Jul-22 6,182 6,203 6,117 6,121 6,151 6,151 0 80,512 112,742
Sep-22 6,042 6,085 6,000 6,001 6,042 6,023 -19 16,075 28,754
Nov-22 5,900 5,915 5,849 5,849 5,891 5,875 -16 8,239 13,826
Jan-23 5,850 5,873 5,812 5,823 5,842 5,832 -10 483 1,907
Mar-23 5,844 5,844 5,798 5,798 5,821 5,812 -9 91 321
Corn
Turnover: 485,531 lots, or 14.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 2,902 2,916 2,897 2,909 2,894 2,906 12 52,831 295,837
Jul-22 2,956 2,970 2,951 2,962 2,951 2,960 9 76,470 350,300
Sep-22 3,025 3,025 3,004 3,014 2,998 3,013 15 327,271 1,221,194
Nov-22 2,995 2,998 2,981 2,989 2,986 2,989 3 9,035 62,648
Jan-23 3,010 3,020 3,004 3,014 3,005 3,012 7 12,361 83,327
Mar-23 3,032 3,040 3,025 3,033 3,023 3,032 9 7,563 26,183
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,193,730 lots, or 48.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 4,185 4,256 4,166 4,249 4,148 4,218 70 83,401 167,638
Jul-22 4,185 4,245 4,161 4,235 4,149 4,209 60 65,181 229,763
Aug-22 4,142 4,199 4,116 4,188 4,102 4,158 56 13,533 139,261
Sep-22 4,075 4,128 4,046 4,118 4,048 4,091 43 920,686 1,404,653
Nov-22 3,975 4,018 3,952 4,006 3,952 3,988 36 22,726 78,988
Dec-22 3,895 3,941 3,875 3,928 3,875 3,910 35 15,388 23,219
Jan-23 3,817 3,855 3,788 3,843 3,789 3,827 38 62,975 177,411
Mar-23 3,698 3,724 3,668 3,714 3,670 3,702 32 9,840 7,643
Palm Oil
Turnover: 721,998 lots, or 81.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 12,520 12,714 12,452 12,626 12,632 12,582 -50 18,717 49,085
Jun-22 12,048 12,238 11,976 12,124 12,138 12,094 -44 14,684 51,298
Jul-22 11,652 11,854 11,592 11,742 11,752 11,712 -40 10,003 47,178
Aug-22 11,366 11,550 11,288 11,438 11,492 11,410 -82 10,718 24,647
Sep-22 11,130 11,336 11,062 11,206 11,260 11,186 -74 651,964 299,288
Oct-22 11,014 11,198 10,934 11,078 11,140 11,054 -86 4,471 9,653
Nov-22 10,868 11,080 10,830 10,982 10,998 10,920 -78 16 318
Dec-22 10,788 10,838 10,732 10,838 10,824 10,786 -38 10 131
Jan-23 10,704 10,860 10,620 10,794 10,798 10,760 -38 11,328 22,433
Feb-23 10,592 10,682 10,592 10,682 10,644 10,648 4 22 54
Mar-23 10,542 10,630 10,510 10,552 10,590 10,538 -52 65 98
Apr-23 – – – 10,538 10,538 10,538 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 462,266 lots, or 5.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 11,126 11,264 11,098 11,206 11,114 11,168 54 16,594 50,404
Jul-22 11,158 11,236 11,084 11,194 11,114 11,160 46 16,453 91,288
Aug-22 11,046 11,152 11,006 11,100 11,060 11,076 16 6,964 55,670
Sep-22 10,976 11,088 10,928 11,038 10,982 11,008 26 391,822 432,555
Nov-22 10,850 10,960 10,808 10,920 10,870 10,886 16 16,222 21,791
Dec-22 10,808 10,908 10,762 10,888 10,818 10,846 28 6,934 5,087
Jan-23 10,766 10,866 10,714 10,830 10,766 10,788 22 7,167 16,290
Mar-23 10,590 10,782 10,590 10,690 10,612 10,730 118 110 191
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322