About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Opinión del Mercado:  Precios mezclados ayer con frijol de soya por encima con ideas de menos en Sur America y demanda para EUA, pero por abajo en trigo por la falta de noticias nuevas.  Maiz por encima después de negociar por ambos lados durante el día..  Hay miedo del clima americano, especialmente en el Planeo Grande donde hace seco.  Hace lluvia y frio al centro del país y los productores no pueden sembrar.  Debe calientar en el Cinturón en los próximos días, pero la lluvia sigue llegando cada dos o tres dias.  El progreso de la producción americana es mas o menos normal por ahora, pero hace frio en el Cinturón y sera difícil a hacer mucho para la mayoría de los productores.  La condición de la producción de trigo invierno esta mal aunque mejor que la semana pasada.  El Presidente Biden quiere utilizar etanol y bio combustibles para bajar los precios de gasolina y otros combustibles aquí.  Países sin nombres compraron 123,650 toneladas de frijol de soya americano.     

 

Posiciones en el Mercado 

Cobertura de Compra:                                                                                                                                          s 

Cobertura de Venta:                                                    

Especuladores: 

 

Tendencias de los Gráficos                                                                                            

Fríjol de Soya Mayo: Las tendencias están a subir, con objetivos de 1790, y 1808 Mayo.  Apoyo a 1697, 1681, y 1652 Mayo, y resistencia a 1759, 1768, y 1780 Mayo. 

Harina de Soya Mayo: Las tendencias están mezcladas.  Apoyo a 463.00, 453.00, y 448.00 Mayo, y resistencia a 472.00, 480.00, y 485.00 Mayo.  

Aceite de Soya Mayo: Las tendencias están a subir, con objetivos de 8220 y 8550 Mayo.  Apoyo a 7860, 7720, y 7660 Mayo, y resistencia a 8130, 8240, y 8360 Mayo. 

Trigo KC Mayo: Las tendencias están mezcladas.  Compradores a 1143, 1106, y 1090 Mayo, y vendedores a 1200, 1242, y 1292 Mayo. 

Trigo Chicago Mayo: Las tendencias están mezcladas.  Compradores a 1067, 1045, y 1017 Mayo, y vendedores a 1098, 1135, y 1156 Mayo. 

Trigo Minn Mayo:  Las tendencias están mezcladas.  Compradores a 1145, 1128, y 1116 Mayo y vendedores a 1185, 1207, y 1222 Mayo. 

Maíz Mayo: Las tendencias están a subir con objetivos de 804 y 819 Mayo.  Compradores a 793, 783, y 768 Mayo, y vendedores a 820, 826, y 832 Mayo.  

 

Noticias: 

DJ IGC Raises Grain Production Forecast 

  By Yusuf Khan

  The International Grains Council raised its global grain production forecast for 2021-22, largely spurred by a bump in Brazilian corn production.

  Global grain production is expected to hit 2,287 million metric tons in the current season, up 3% year on year from 2020-21, and an increase by 3 million tons from the IGC’s previous forecast in March, the council said in a new report released Thursday.

  The Council said that inventories this year were likely to grow by 7 million tons to 608 million tons in total, partly spurred by a lack of seaborne exports from Ukraine amid the conflict.

  Production in 2022-23 is likely to fall to 2,275 million tons, slightly down from the current year, with Black sea production affected in particular, the IGC said. The forecast includes reductions in the output of corn by 13 million tons, sorghum by 2 million tons and wheat by 1 million tons. There are, however, anticipated gains for barley and oats.

  The IGC did caveat its first forecast for the new season, saying that black sea figures could change given the Ukraine war and the region’s uncertainty when it comes to production.

  Grain consumption is also projected to hit a new peak of 2,302 million tons “despite forecasts for slower than average growth in feed and food uses, tied to potentially high prices and resulting demand rationing.” Consumption this year is forecast to hit 2,281 million tons.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Apr 21 

    For the week ended Apr 14, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in

thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,

less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total

commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.

   The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and

and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and

soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA

               wk’s net chg             total

               in commitments        commitments      undlvd sales

              this yr  next yr   this yr   last yr  this yr  next yr

wheat            26.3    238.4   19264.6   25369.6   2614.5   2141.2

  hrw           -55.8     81.0    7492.7    8620.8   1077.2    584.7

  srw            17.4     78.0    2852.4    1774.5    414.6    587.0

  hrs            78.1     28.5    5399.1    7680.1    753.8    567.9

  white         -13.7     50.9    3330.5    6629.6    353.4    337.2

  durum           0.4      0.0     189.9     664.6     15.5     64.4

corn            879.2    389.6   56648.7   67198.3  20078.7   3363.4

soybeans        460.2   1240.0   57095.8   60826.9  11078.6  10161.3

soymeal         101.8     27.0    9498.4    9259.9   2715.0    370.4

soyoil            1.2      0.0     646.9     659.1    141.0      0.0

upland cotton    50.5    136.1   14369.8   15072.2   6589.9   2796.6

pima cotton       3.8      5.5     451.3     756.6    123.7     40.1

sorghum         -53.6      0.0    6704.5    7050.8   2203.9      0.0

barley            0.0      0.0      20.5      29.2      5.8      8.6

rice             64.7      0.0    2588.5    2910.5    559.4      0.0

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn 

HRW 

SRW 

Soybeans 

Soybean Meal 

Soybean Oil 

March 

123 May 

250 May 

130 May 

150 May 

April 

123 May 

250 May 

130 May 

150 May 

May 

123 July 

230 July 

135 July 

155 July 

 

 

[JS1] 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 20 

     WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures.

     Source: ICE Futures

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

                     Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region         1158.30   -10.00     May  2022    dn  2.70

Basis: Thunder Bay  1222.60    60.00     May  2022    dn  6.10

Basis: Vancouver    1232.60    70.00     May  2022    dn  6.10

     All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

     *Quote for previous day.

     Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,

or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 21 

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

May             1677.50    -15.00      Unquoted    –        –

Jun             1627.50    -15.00      Unquoted    –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep     1497.50    -15.00      Unquoted    –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec     1440.00    -17.50      Unquoted    –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB,     Malaysian ports

                 Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

May             1680.00     -15.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jun             1630.00     -15.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep     1500.00     -15.00      Unquoted    –       –

Oct/Nov/Dec     1442.50     -17.50      Unquoted    –       –

RBD palm stearin, FOB,  Malaysian ports

                 Offer      Change       Bid       Change   Traded

May              1620.00    -10.00       Unquoted  –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

                 Offer       Change       Bid       Change   Traded

May              1440.00     -15.00       Unquoted  –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                 Offer       Change        Bid        Change   Traded

Apr              6820.00     +20.00        Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                 Offer      Change         Bid        Change   Traded

Apr              486.00     -05.00         Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.289)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 21 

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 109,851 lots, or 6.71 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

May-22     6,156     6,182     6,089     6,091     6,088     6,136        48     4,451     8,776

Jul-22     6,182     6,203     6,117     6,121     6,151     6,151         0    80,512   112,742

Sep-22     6,042     6,085     6,000     6,001     6,042     6,023       -19    16,075    28,754

Nov-22     5,900     5,915     5,849     5,849     5,891     5,875       -16     8,239    13,826

Jan-23     5,850     5,873     5,812     5,823     5,842     5,832       -10       483     1,907

Mar-23     5,844     5,844     5,798     5,798     5,821     5,812        -9        91       321

Corn

Turnover: 485,531 lots, or 14.53 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

May-22     2,902     2,916     2,897     2,909     2,894     2,906        12    52,831     295,837

Jul-22     2,956     2,970     2,951     2,962     2,951     2,960         9    76,470     350,300

Sep-22     3,025     3,025     3,004     3,014     2,998     3,013        15   327,271   1,221,194

Nov-22     2,995     2,998     2,981     2,989     2,986     2,989         3     9,035      62,648

Jan-23     3,010     3,020     3,004     3,014     3,005     3,012         7    12,361      83,327

Mar-23     3,032     3,040     3,025     3,033     3,023     3,032         9     7,563      26,183

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,193,730 lots, or 48.78 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

May-22     4,185     4,256     4,166     4,249     4,148     4,218        70    83,401     167,638

Jul-22     4,185     4,245     4,161     4,235     4,149     4,209        60    65,181     229,763

Aug-22     4,142     4,199     4,116     4,188     4,102     4,158        56    13,533     139,261

Sep-22     4,075     4,128     4,046     4,118     4,048     4,091        43   920,686   1,404,653

Nov-22     3,975     4,018     3,952     4,006     3,952     3,988        36    22,726      78,988

Dec-22     3,895     3,941     3,875     3,928     3,875     3,910        35    15,388      23,219

Jan-23     3,817     3,855     3,788     3,843     3,789     3,827        38    62,975     177,411

Mar-23     3,698     3,724     3,668     3,714     3,670     3,702        32     9,840       7,643

Palm Oil

Turnover: 721,998 lots, or 81.18 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

May-22    12,520    12,714    12,452    12,626    12,632    12,582       -50    18,717    49,085

Jun-22    12,048    12,238    11,976    12,124    12,138    12,094       -44    14,684    51,298

Jul-22    11,652    11,854    11,592    11,742    11,752    11,712       -40    10,003    47,178

Aug-22    11,366    11,550    11,288    11,438    11,492    11,410       -82    10,718    24,647

Sep-22    11,130    11,336    11,062    11,206    11,260    11,186       -74   651,964   299,288

Oct-22    11,014    11,198    10,934    11,078    11,140    11,054       -86     4,471     9,653

Nov-22    10,868    11,080    10,830    10,982    10,998    10,920       -78        16       318

Dec-22    10,788    10,838    10,732    10,838    10,824    10,786       -38        10       131

Jan-23    10,704    10,860    10,620    10,794    10,798    10,760       -38    11,328    22,433

Feb-23    10,592    10,682    10,592    10,682    10,644    10,648         4        22        54

Mar-23    10,542    10,630    10,510    10,552    10,590    10,538       -52        65        98

Apr-23         –         –         –    10,538    10,538    10,538         0         0         0

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 462,266 lots, or 5.09 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

May-22    11,126    11,264    11,098    11,206    11,114    11,168        54    16,594    50,404

Jul-22    11,158    11,236    11,084    11,194    11,114    11,160        46    16,453    91,288

Aug-22    11,046    11,152    11,006    11,100    11,060    11,076        16     6,964    55,670

Sep-22    10,976    11,088    10,928    11,038    10,982    11,008        26   391,822   432,555

Nov-22    10,850    10,960    10,808    10,920    10,870    10,886        16    16,222    21,791

Dec-22    10,808    10,908    10,762    10,888    10,818    10,846        28     6,934     5,087

Jan-23    10,766    10,866    10,714    10,830    10,766    10,788        22     7,167    16,290

Mar-23    10,590    10,782    10,590    10,690    10,612    10,730       118       110       191

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322