About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT

General Comments:   Wheat markets were lower yesterday on speculative selling tied to long liquidation, but the fundamentals are thought to remain bullish overall.  The western US Great Plains remained too dry and crop conditions were very poor and the war continued in Ukraine with little if any ideas of a cease fire mentioned.   Ports are closed in Ukraine and Russian shippers and exporters are not offering in part due to sanctions but mostly due to the war and the chance to lose ships due to reports of mines in the Black Sea placed by the Russians.  However, there were reports of Russian Wheat appearing in the world market.  Ukraine can rail the exports to the EU for shipment but the amount that can be moved is very limited. 

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get isolated to scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near to below normal.  Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers.  Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 1157 and 1280 May.  Support is at 1094, 1079, and 1045 May, with resistance at 1135, 1156, and 1164 May.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 1156, 1106, and 1090 May, with resistance at 1200, 1242, and 1292 May.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 1222 and 1325 May.  Support is at 1145, 1128, and 1116 May, and resistance is at 1185, 1207, and 1222 May.

RICE:                                              

General Comments:  Rice was higher early yesterday and then collapsed in high volume trading.  May had a trading range on 1.31 per cwt with most of the action on the downside as the market corrected the recent rally.  The overall rally is expected to tart again very soon.  It looks like supplies are tight and demand is holding together in this market.  The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere in light volumes.  Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal.  Growing conditions are considered good for crops right now although it has been a little cold.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1561, 1548, and 1547 May and resistance is at 1614, 1644, and 1671 May.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Apr 20

USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices

of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields

and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)

and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA

                    —–World Price—–      MLG/LDP Rate

                     Milled Value  Rough      Rough

                     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)

Long Grain            15.23         9.64       0.00

Medium/Short Grain    15.02        10.25       0.00

Brokens                9.66         —-       —-

CORN AND OATS:

General Comments:  Corn closed lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative selling tied to long liquidation.  The US Dollar was higher and made new highs for the move and there are some worries about demand moving forward.  Corn futures made new highs for the move early in the session as the market deals with less due to the war in Ukraine and the planting intentions of US farmers for the coming growing season.  The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter and could be enough to keep Corn prices trending higher for now.  The ports remain closed and Ukraine can rail out to the EU in limited amounts.  Russia is also a Corn exporter and no product is moving from either country at this time  China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response.  The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic.  The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people can’t make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes.  However, China has been a very big buyer of US Corn over the last couple of weeks as they need the feed and Ukraine cannot currently offer any supply.  President Biden has said he will permit the use of higher ethanol blends in gasoline this Summer in an effort to control inflation and high fuel prices.

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 819 May.  Support is at 793, 783, and 768 May, and resistance is at 820, 828, and 834 May.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 741, 733, and 730 May, and resistance is at 766, 800, and 811 May.

SOYBEANS

General Comments:  Soybeans and the products were mixed, with Soybean Meal higher and Soybean Oil lower.  Soybean Oil trends are up and there are increasing concerns in the US about the cold and wet Midwest weather keeping farmers from the fields for planting.  President Biden has said he will support expanded use of bio fuels this Summer in an effort to control higher fuel prices. More sanctions are now threatened for Russia due to what the world is seeing in Ukraine right now.  There are still worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there.  China has not been mentioned as a Soybeans buyer in the daily sales reports from USDA for the last couple of weeks.  Supplies available to the export market from South America remain limited.  Both Ukraine and Russia are major exporters of Sunoil and control about 80% of the market combined but no Sunoil is moving from either country these days.  China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America.  They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs.  Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market.  The world situation is still tightening as Brazil and Argentina harvested less Soybeans. 

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1720, 1790, and 1880 May.  Support is at 1697, 1681, and 1652 May, and resistance is at 1736, 1759, and 1768 May.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.   Support is at 463.00, 453.00, and 448.00 May, and resistance is at 472.00 480.00, and 485.00 May.  Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 8220 and 8550 May.  Support is at 7860, 7720, and 7660 May, with resistance at 8120, 8240, and 8360 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments Palm Oil was lower today after the private sources reported weaker exports for the month to date.  Less than expected Malaysian inventories and hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported.  A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports.  The economy could slow down and affect demand.  Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production.  Indonesia is once again making moves to cut the availability of Palm Oil for export as it manages high internal prices.  Canola was lower on the price action in Chicago.   It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting.  There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well.  Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.  Futures prices are still in a trading range.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 1157.00, 1141.00, and 1133.00 May, with resistance at 1175.00, 1178.00, and 1183.00 May.  Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 6740 July.  Support is at 6150, 6020, and 5910 July, with resistance at 6530, 6650, and 6770 July.

DJ Malaysia April 1-20 Palm Oil Exports 610,728 Tons, Down 18%, AmSpec Says

  Malaysia’s palm oil exports for April 1-20 are estimated to have fallen 18% from the previous month to 610,728 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Wednesday.

  The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:

  (All figures in metric tons)

                        April 1-20        March 1-20

   RBD Palm Olein        174,643           354,147

   RBD Palm Oil           66,460            70,025

   RBD Palm Stearin       51,812            69,860

   Crude Palm Oil        155,785           119,974

   Total*                610,728           744,841

  *Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry.  Temperatures should average below normal.

 

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn

HRW

SRW

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

March

123 May

250 May

130 May

150 May

April

123 May

250 May

130 May

150 May

May

123 July

230 July

135 July

155 July

 

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 19

     WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures.

     Source: ICE Futures

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

                     Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region         1161.00   -10.00     May  2022    up 10.30

Basis: Thunder Bay  1228.70    60.00     May  2022    dn  2.30

Basis: Vancouver    1238.70    70.00     May  2022    dn  2.30

     All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

     *Quote for previous day.

     Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,

or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 20

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

May             1692.50    -15.00      Unquoted    –        –

Jun             1642.50    -15.00      Unquoted    –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep     1512.50    -25.00      Unquoted    –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec     1457.50    -20.00      Unquoted    –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB,     Malaysian ports

                 Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

May             1695.00     -15.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jun             1645.00     -15.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep     1515.00     -25.00      Unquoted    –       –

Oct/Nov/Dec     1460.00     -20.00      Unquoted    –       –

RBD palm stearin, FOB,  Malaysian ports

                 Offer      Change       Bid       Change   Traded

Apr              1630.00    -20.00       Unquoted  –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

                 Offer       Change       Bid       Change   Traded

Apr              1455.00     -35.00       Unquoted  –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                 Offer       Change        Bid        Change   Traded

Apr              6800.00     -50.00        Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                 Offer      Change         Bid        Change   Traded

Apr              491.00     -01.00         Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.28)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 20

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 133,340 lots, or 8.14 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

May-22     6,102     6,155     6,065     6,142     6,109     6,088       -21     4,529    10,818

Jul-22     6,150     6,199     6,103     6,182     6,151     6,151         0    95,466   108,473

Sep-22     6,050     6,082     5,996     6,063     6,043     6,042        -1    21,061    25,814

Nov-22     5,885     5,918     5,850     5,902     5,894     5,891        -3    11,640    13,344

Jan-23     5,880     5,880     5,820     5,866     5,854     5,842       -12       528     1,654

Mar-23     5,830     5,847     5,800     5,847     5,828     5,821        -7       116       241

Corn

Turnover: 743,542 lots, or 22.15 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

May-22     2,892     2,903     2,883     2,902     2,882     2,894        12    93,627     303,792

Jul-22     2,936     2,961     2,936     2,956     2,941     2,951        10    99,199     339,655

Sep-22     2,991     3,014     2,983     3,008     2,984     2,998        14   487,517   1,200,955

Nov-22     2,962     3,000     2,962     2,987     2,967     2,986        19    18,333      62,443

Jan-23     2,983     3,018     2,979     3,011     2,979     3,005        26    30,366      82,002

Mar-23     3,006     3,039     3,002     3,032     3,000     3,023        23    14,500      27,045

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,568,002 lots, or 63.40 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.         Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                    Interest

May-22     4,108     4,202     4,097     4,183     4,083     4,148        65     140,315     200,335

Jul-22     4,102     4,198     4,086     4,175     4,089     4,149        60      94,128     230,079

Aug-22     4,063     4,156     4,053     4,129     4,039     4,102        63      18,408     139,559

Sep-22     4,029     4,098     3,996     4,064     3,978     4,048        70   1,167,511   1,338,881

Nov-22     3,928     4,000     3,900     3,965     3,881     3,952        71      33,774      79,664

Dec-22     3,825     3,922     3,820     3,889     3,805     3,875        70      21,653      23,587

Jan-23     3,728     3,837     3,728     3,803     3,719     3,789        70      79,059     173,173

Mar-23     3,632     3,716     3,621     3,681     3,603     3,670        67      13,154       7,874

Palm Oil

Turnover: 960,211 lots, or 10.89 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

May-22    12,796    12,816    12,426    12,508    12,830    12,632      -198    37,241    54,225

Jun-22    12,318    12,318    11,900    11,990    12,294    12,138      -156    23,898    52,502

Jul-22    11,956    11,956    11,514    11,620    11,936    11,752      -184    11,629    46,495

Aug-22    11,614    11,686    11,224    11,338    11,660    11,492      -168    11,488    23,780

Sep-22    11,374    11,484    11,000    11,124    11,448    11,260      -188   853,993   294,663

Oct-22    11,226    11,340    10,884    10,988    11,310    11,140      -170     7,235     9,236

Nov-22    11,024    11,176    10,836    10,836    11,170    10,998      -172        36       321

Dec-22    10,908    11,046    10,500    10,856    11,024    10,824      -200        26       127

Jan-23    10,850    10,990    10,574    10,694    10,918    10,798      -120    14,627    20,153

Feb-23    10,652    10,652    10,636    10,636    10,896    10,644      -252         5        65

Mar-23    10,574    10,758    10,500    10,500    10,746    10,590      -156        33        80

Apr-23         –         –         –    10,538    10,614    10,538       -76         0         0

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 656,627 lots, or 72.16 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

May-22    11,140    11,218    11,034    11,080    11,146    11,114       -32    34,398    56,462

Jul-22    11,140    11,226    11,032    11,090    11,172    11,114       -58    31,268    93,034

Aug-22    11,040    11,160    10,968    11,014    11,102    11,060       -42     9,239    55,235

Sep-22    11,002    11,092    10,886    10,940    11,032    10,982       -50   546,102   415,970

Nov-22    10,924    10,984    10,774    10,818    10,924    10,870       -54    21,667    20,529

Dec-22    10,804    10,926    10,728    10,776    10,870    10,818       -52     7,280     5,096

Jan-23    10,828    10,880    10,690    10,746    10,824    10,766       -58     6,661    15,349

Mar-23    10,570    10,688    10,560    10,588    10,642    10,612       -30        12       175

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322