About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON       

General Comments:  Cotton was higher yesterday on dry weather forecasts for the Great Plains and on news late last week that India has waived import taxes on Cotton until September.  Trends remain up on the daily and weekly charts.  India will now increase imports as world and US Cotton is now lower cost to importers.  Much of the western parts of the Great Plains have missed out on recent precipitation events and are likely to miss out again this week.  Production of the next US crop is at risk now.  There was talk about less demand for the market in part from Fed moves to control the inflation now seen in the US and around the world.  Traders are getting worried about a potential recession caused by Fed tightening.  China has been buying even with the port closures and domestic difficulties caused by renewed Covid lockdowns.  Traders are worried about Chinese demand moving forward.  China has closed two ports for imports due to Covid and is also closing down a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation.

Overnight News:  The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and the Southeast will get scattered showers and bear to below normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 138.25 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,101 bales, from 1,101 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 149.20 and 159.20 May.  Support is at 13920, 13460, and 13160 May, with resistance of 14620, 14740 and 14860 May.

Crop Progress

Date

17-Apr

10-Apr

2021

Avg

Cotton Planted

10

7

11

9


FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was sharply higher again yesterday as the market now knows it is short Oranges and short juice production.  Futures were a little lower on Friday on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation before the long weekend.  The greening disease has taken its toll on the US crop and the previous Brazil crop was down significantly due to drought.  Trends are still up on the daily charts.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good but it is drier now and some tree stress could develop soon.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.  Florida Mutual said that FCOJ inventories are now 32% less than last year.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry co0.6ditions.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   Brazil should get isolated showers and near normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives.  Support is at 174.00, 169.00, and 164.00 May, with resistance at 196.00, 202.00, and 208.00 May.

COFFEE 

General Comments New York was higher with London closed as deliveries from Brazil remain less than needed by the market and despite ideas of less demand from Ukraine, Russia, and China.  Deliveries from Vietnam and Brazil Robusta are noted to be increasing but Robusta was following New York.  Brazil deliveries are able to expand, but the recent strength in the Brazilian Real is keeping producers from offering right now.  Less deliveries are reported from Vietnam now as producers have sold most of the crop and are holding the rest and waiting for higher prices, but the market is still flush from Vietnamese selling seen earlier in the year.  Good growing conditions for the next crop in Brazil are still around but flowering is reported to be uneven this year in at least some areas.  New York made a key reversal on the weekly charts last week so weaker prices are anticipated this week. 

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 1.080 million bags.  GCA stocks are now 5.820 million bags, from 5.765 million last month.  The ICO daily average price is now 197.32 ct/lb.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 220.00, 217.00, and 213.00 May, and resistance is at 225.00, 233.00 and 238.00 May.  Trends in London are mixed.   Support is at 2060, 2010, and 2000 May, and resistance is at 2120, 2150, and 2180 May.

SUGAR               

General Comments:  New York was higher yesterday and London was closed.  Weekly chart trends are up in both markets but London appears to be the stronger market.  Increased offers from India and Thailand are expected if the market continues to rally.  The US government has proposed to open the reserve in an effort to lower petroleum prices here and this affected Sugar due to the potential for reduced ethanol demand from the lower prices.  It is also permitting refiners to blend 15% ethanol into the fuel mixtures instead of 10% for the coming Summer.  Russia has left a trail of atrocities in its withdrawal from Kiev and other cities in Ukraine.  News reports indicate that little export activity is taking place from Ukraine with the ports basically closed.  Russia said it is still exporting from Black Sea ports.  India and Thailand expect improved crops this year.  Thailand expects to produce about10 million tons of sugar this year, up 33% from last year.  India said it could produce more than 9.0 million tons of Sugar.  Brazil could also have better Sugarcane production this year but the strengthening Real implies that most of the refining will be for Ethanol and not Sugar.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.  India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.   USDA said that Sugarbeets are now 7% planted, from 6% last week, 24% last year and 16% average.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1990, 1960, and 1930 July and resistance is at 2040, 2070, and 2100 July.  Trends in London are up with no objectives.  Support is at 541.00, 535.00, and 532.00 August and resistance is at 560.00, 566.00, and 572.00 August.

COCOA                                                                                 

General Comments New York was lower yesterday with London closed for a holiday.  Daily chart trends are still mixed in New York and are mixed in London.  The weekly charts also show mixed trends.  The EU released bullish data last week as demand improved more than expected.  The grind was 373,098 tons, up 4.3% from last year and up 2.1% from the previous quarter.  Asia and North America are expected to release grind data early this week, The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa but some are concerned about dry weather that could affect the yields for the midcrop harvest.  Some showers are in the forecast for West Africa and have been for several weeks, but the precipitation was less than normal last week.  Farmers there say that soil moisture conditions are good for the midcrop, but there are concerns that conditions are too dry overall for the best yields.  The weather is good in Southeast Asia.  Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels but Ivory Coast arrivals are ahead of last year.

Overnight News:  Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.874 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2490, 2400, and 2380 May, with resistance at 2570, 2650, and 2680 May.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1740, 1710, and 1700 May, with resistance at 1790, 1810, and 1820 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322