About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Apr 18

WA_GR101

Washington, DC   Mon Apr 18, 2022   USDA Market News

COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.

INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED

THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,

COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE

GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING APR 14, 2022

— METRIC TONS —

————————————————————————–

CURRENT     PREVIOUS

———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR

GRAIN     04/14/2022 04/07/2022 04/15/2021   TO DATE     TO DATE

BARLEY             0           0           0       10,010       32,620

CORN       1,139,206   1,474,156   1,559,267   33,191,718   39,454,930

FLAXSEED           0          0           0         324         509

MIXED               0           0           0           0           0

OATS             100           0       1,099         600       6,514

RYE                 0           0           0           0          0

SORGHUM       316,467     143,839     314,699   4,912,896   5,202,257

SOYBEANS     972,509     818,689     222,065   45,964,092   55,213,057

SUNFLOWER         336         528           0       1,588           0

WHEAT         432,253    419,185     629,065   18,067,567   22,074,810

Total       2,860,871   2,856,397   2,726,195 102,148,795 121,984,697

—————————————————————————-

CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

 

Crop Progress

Date

17-Apr

10-Apr

2021

Avg

Cotton Planted

10

7

11

9

Corn Planted

4

2

2

6

Soybeans Planted

1

3

2

Sorghum Planted

17

14

15

19

Rice Planted

22

17

32

36

Rice Emerged

13

10

16

18

Peanuts Planted

2

2

2

Sugarbeets Planted

7

6

24

16

Oats Planted

34

29

48

39

Oats Emerged

24

23

30

28

Winter Wheat Headed

7

5

9

12

Spring Wheat Planted

8

6

18

9

Barley Planted

17

11

24

15

Crop Condition

Very Poor

Poor

Fair

Good

Excellent

Winter Wheat This Week

19

18

33

27

3

Winter Wheat Last Week

18

18

32

29

3

Winter Wheat Last Year

6

11

30

46

7

 

WHEAT

General CommentsWheat markets were higher yesterday as the western US Great Plains remained too dry and crop conditions were very poor and as the war continued in Ukraine with little if any ideas of a cease fire mentioned. Trends are up in all three markets on the daily and weekly charts due to the poor growing conditions for the crops in the ground. Ports are closed in Ukraine and Russian shippers and exporters are not offering in part due to sanctions but mostly due to the war and the chance to lose ships due to reports of mines in the Black Sea placed by the Russians. However, there were reports of Russian Wheat appearing in the world market late last week. Ukraine can rail the exports to the EU for shipment but the amount that can be moved is very limited.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 1157 and 1280 May. Support is at 1094, 1079, and 1045 May, with resistance at 1156, 1164, and 1200 May. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 1156, 1106, and 1090 May, with resistance at 1200, 1242, and 1292 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 1222 and 1325 May. Support is at 1145, 10128, and 1116 May, and resistance is at 1207, 1222, and 1235 May.

 

RICE:                                              

General Comments: Rice was sharply higher on Friday and held the weekly trading range. Trends are up on the daily charts and sideways on the weekly charts. The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere in light volumes. Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal. Growing conditions are considered good for crops right now although it has been a little cold.

Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1650 and 1716 May. Support is at 1591, 1575, and 1563 May and resistance is at 1628, 1644, and 1684 May.

 

CORN AND OATS:

General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday and trends are up on the daily and weekly charts. Oats closed lower after making new highs for the move, but trends are still up on the weekly charts. Corn futures made new highs for the move as the market deals with less due to the war in Ukraine and the planting intentions of US farmers for the coming growing season. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter and could be enough to keep Corn prices trending higher for now. The ports remain closed and Ukraine can rail out to the EU in limited amounts. Russia is also a Corn exporter and no product is moving from either country at this time China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response. The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic. The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people can’t make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes. However, China has been a very big buyer of US Corn over the last couple of weeks as they need the feed and Ukraine cannot currently offer any supply. President Biden has said he will permit the use of higher ethanol blends in gasoline this Summer in an effort to control inflation and high fuel prices.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 819 May. Support is at 793, 783, and 768 May, and resistance is at 7822, 828, and 834 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 741, 733, and 730 May, and resistance is at 766, 800, and 811 May.

 

SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher. Soybean Oil trends are up and there are increasing concerns in the US about the cold and wet Midwest weather keeping farmers from the fields for planting. President Biden has said he will support expanded use of bio fuels this Summer in an effort to control higher fuel prices. More sanctions are now threatened for Russia due to what the world is seeing in Ukraine right now. There are still worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there. China has not been mentioned as a Soybeans buyer in the daily sales reports from USDA for the last couple of weeks. Supplies available to the export market from South America remain limited. Both Ukraine and Russia are major exporters of Sunoil and control about 80% of the market combined but no Sunoil is moving from either country these days. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market. The world situation is still tightening as Brazil and Argentina harvested less Soybeans.

Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 123,650 tons of US Soybeans.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1720, 1790, and 1880 May. Support is at 1681, 1652, and 1646 May, and resistance is at 1736, 1759, and 1768 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 453.00, 448.00, and 442.00 May, and resistance is at 472.00 480.00, and 485.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 8220 and 8550 May. Support is at 7860, 7720, and 7660 May, with resistance at 8120, 8240, and 8360 May.

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Palm Oil was closed today. Less than expected Malaysian inventories and on hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Indonesia is once again making moves to cut the availability of Palm Oil for export as it manages high internal prices. Canola was higher on the price action in Chicago.  It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight. Futures prices are still in a trading range.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 1157.00, 1141.00, and 1133.00 May, with resistance at 1175.00, 1178.00, and 1183.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 6740 July. Support is at 6150, 6020, and 5910 July, with resistance at 6530, 6650, and 6770 July.

 

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal.

 

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn

HRW

SRW

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

March

123 May

250 May

130 May

150 May

April

123 May

250 May

130 May

150 May

May

123 July

230 July

135 July

155 July

 

 

 

 

 

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 18

WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures.

Source: ICE Futures

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region         1150.70   -10.00     May 2022   up 5.70

Basis: Thunder Bay 1231.00   60.00     May 2022   up 10.30

Basis: Vancouver   1241.00   70.00     May 2022   up 10.30

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

*Quote for previous day.

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,

or 204-414-9084)

 

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 19

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 121,622 lots, or 7.44 billion yuan

Open     High       Low     Close     Prev.   Settle       Ch.       Vol     Open

Settle                               Interest

May-22     6,132     6,138     6,074     6,124     6,155     6,109       -46     3,683   11,864

Jul-22    6,156     6,188     6,103     6,174     6,189     6,151       -38   91,494   108,483

Sep-22     6,040     6,076     5,999     6,063     6,070     6,043       -27   17,966   25,859

Nov-22     5,903     5,916     5,868     5,906     5,926     5,894      -32     8,009   13,194

Jan-23     5,887     5,887     5,834     5,865     5,886     5,854       -32       424     1,469

Mar-23     5,825     5,850     5,805     5,849     5,850     5,828       -22       46       135

Corn

Turnover: 656,952 lots, or 19.48 billion yuan

Open     High       Low     Close     Prev.   Settle       Ch.       Vol       Open

Settle                                 Interest

May-22     2,868     2,892     2,863     2,887     2,868     2,882       14   89,860     328,329

Jul-22     2,920     2,951     2,918     2,947     2,922     2,941       19   78,802     331,044

Sep-22     2,969     2,998     2,959     2,991     2,963     2,984       21   456,375   1,152,917

Nov-22     2,953     2,979     2,944     2,975     2,944     2,967       23     8,916     62,612

Jan-23     2,961     2,988     2,957     2,984     2,959     2,979       20   14,666     73,319

Mar-23     2,983     3,011     2,983     3,009     2,983     3,000       17     8,333     25,155

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,310,796 lots, or 52.13 billion yuan

Open     High       Low     Close     Prev.   Settle       Ch.         Vol       Open

Settle                                   Interest

May-22     4,055     4,143     4,033     4,133     4,048     4,083       35     118,575     238,912

Jul-22     4,049     4,139     4,030     4,132     4,043     4,089       46     69,548     241,008

Aug-22     3,985     4,091     3,981     4,086     4,003     4,039       36     16,454     140,692

Sep-22     3,934     4,033     3,913     4,029     3,931     3,978       47   1,002,291   1,288,043

Nov-22     3,844     3,933     3,808     3,933     3,834     3,881       47     24,673     78,442

Dec-22     3,769     3,855     3,750     3,853     3,761    3,805       44     10,858     23,048

Jan-23     3,678     3,771     3,664     3,769     3,673     3,719       46     56,912     162,976

Mar-23     3,561     3,653     3,553     3,647     3,560     3,603       43     11,485       7,877

Palm Oil

Turnover: 699,218 lots, or 80.60 billion yuan

Open     High       Low     Close     Prev.   Settle       Ch.       Vol     Open

Settle                               Interest

May-22   12,792   12,898   12,756   12,828   12,738   12,830       92   26,632   59,658

Jun-22   12,236   12,378   12,216   12,318   12,214   12,294       80   16,581   52,779

Jul-22   11,838   12,004   11,826   11,976   11,840   11,936       96   10,047   45,908

Aug-22   11,548   11,734   11,544   11,674   11,550   11,660       110     7,485   23,370

Sep-22   11,340   11,532   11,322   11,458   11,330   11,448       118   630,094   309,957

Oct-22   11,196   11,392   11,186   11,316   11,164   11,310       146     3,622     9,142

Nov-22   11,200   11,200   11,120   11,180   10,954   11,170       216         9       315

Dec-22   11,036   11,082   10,948   11,002   10,870   11,024       154        7       126

Jan-23   10,850   10,986   10,844   10,886   10,786   10,918       132     4,724   17,805

Feb-23   10,874   10,918   10,874   10,918   10,702   10,896       194         2       65

Mar-23   10,730   10,798   10,706   10,706   10,614   10,746       132       15       78

Apr-23         –         –         –   10,614   10,614   10,614         0         0         0

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 485,468 lots, or 53.59 billion yuan

Open     High       Low    Close     Prev.   Settle       Ch.       Vol     Open

Settle                               Interest

May-22   11,042   11,234   11,042   11,210   11,062   11,146       84   20,157   75,207

Jul-22   11,086   11,238   11,060   11,214   11,060   11,172       112   21,115   91,684

Aug-22   11,030   11,184   11,010   11,158   11,006   11,102       96   12,020   54,654

Sep-22   10,962   11,114   10,932   11,090   10,940   11,032       92   406,922   426,167

Nov-22   10,850   10,984   10,806   10,964   10,820   10,924       104   11,434   20,236

Dec-22   10,796   10,928   10,776   10,904   10,756   10,870       114     6,780     5,204

Jan-23   10,738   10,880   10,726   10,864   10,704   10,824       120     7,020   15,311

Mar-23   10,678   10,730   10,560   10,728   10,598   10,642       44       20       175

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322