Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Grains Report 04/19/2022
DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Apr 18
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Apr 18, 2022 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING APR 14, 2022
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————–
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 04/14/2022 04/07/2022 04/15/2021 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 10,010 32,620
CORN 1,139,206 1,474,156 1,559,267 33,191,718 39,454,930
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 324 509
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 100 0 1,099 600 6,514
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 316,467 143,839 314,699 4,912,896 5,202,257
SOYBEANS 972,509 818,689 222,065 45,964,092 55,213,057
SUNFLOWER 336 528 0 1,588 0
WHEAT 432,253 419,185 629,065 18,067,567 22,074,810
Total 2,860,871 2,856,397 2,726,195 102,148,795 121,984,697
—————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA
Crop Progress
Date
17-Apr
10-Apr
2021
Avg
Cotton Planted
10
7
11
9
Corn Planted
4
2
2
6
Soybeans Planted
1
3
2
Sorghum Planted
17
14
15
19
Rice Planted
22
17
32
36
Rice Emerged
13
10
16
18
Peanuts Planted
2
2
2
Sugarbeets Planted
7
6
24
16
Oats Planted
34
29
48
39
Oats Emerged
24
23
30
28
Winter Wheat Headed
7
5
9
12
Spring Wheat Planted
8
6
18
9
Barley Planted
17
11
24
15
Crop Condition
Very Poor
Poor
Fair
Good
Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week
19
18
33
27
3
Winter Wheat Last Week
18
18
32
29
3
Winter Wheat Last Year
6
11
30
46
7
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday as the western US Great Plains remained too dry and crop conditions were very poor and as the war continued in Ukraine with little if any ideas of a cease fire mentioned. Trends are up in all three markets on the daily and weekly charts due to the poor growing conditions for the crops in the ground. Ports are closed in Ukraine and Russian shippers and exporters are not offering in part due to sanctions but mostly due to the war and the chance to lose ships due to reports of mines in the Black Sea placed by the Russians. However, there were reports of Russian Wheat appearing in the world market late last week. Ukraine can rail the exports to the EU for shipment but the amount that can be moved is very limited.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 1157 and 1280 May. Support is at 1094, 1079, and 1045 May, with resistance at 1156, 1164, and 1200 May. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 1156, 1106, and 1090 May, with resistance at 1200, 1242, and 1292 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 1222 and 1325 May. Support is at 1145, 10128, and 1116 May, and resistance is at 1207, 1222, and 1235 May.
RICE:
General Comments: Rice was sharply higher on Friday and held the weekly trading range. Trends are up on the daily charts and sideways on the weekly charts. The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere in light volumes. Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal. Growing conditions are considered good for crops right now although it has been a little cold.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1650 and 1716 May. Support is at 1591, 1575, and 1563 May and resistance is at 1628, 1644, and 1684 May.
CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday and trends are up on the daily and weekly charts. Oats closed lower after making new highs for the move, but trends are still up on the weekly charts. Corn futures made new highs for the move as the market deals with less due to the war in Ukraine and the planting intentions of US farmers for the coming growing season. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter and could be enough to keep Corn prices trending higher for now. The ports remain closed and Ukraine can rail out to the EU in limited amounts. Russia is also a Corn exporter and no product is moving from either country at this time China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response. The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic. The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people can’t make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes. However, China has been a very big buyer of US Corn over the last couple of weeks as they need the feed and Ukraine cannot currently offer any supply. President Biden has said he will permit the use of higher ethanol blends in gasoline this Summer in an effort to control inflation and high fuel prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 819 May. Support is at 793, 783, and 768 May, and resistance is at 7822, 828, and 834 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 741, 733, and 730 May, and resistance is at 766, 800, and 811 May.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher. Soybean Oil trends are up and there are increasing concerns in the US about the cold and wet Midwest weather keeping farmers from the fields for planting. President Biden has said he will support expanded use of bio fuels this Summer in an effort to control higher fuel prices. More sanctions are now threatened for Russia due to what the world is seeing in Ukraine right now. There are still worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there. China has not been mentioned as a Soybeans buyer in the daily sales reports from USDA for the last couple of weeks. Supplies available to the export market from South America remain limited. Both Ukraine and Russia are major exporters of Sunoil and control about 80% of the market combined but no Sunoil is moving from either country these days. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market. The world situation is still tightening as Brazil and Argentina harvested less Soybeans.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 123,650 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1720, 1790, and 1880 May. Support is at 1681, 1652, and 1646 May, and resistance is at 1736, 1759, and 1768 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 453.00, 448.00, and 442.00 May, and resistance is at 472.00 480.00, and 485.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 8220 and 8550 May. Support is at 7860, 7720, and 7660 May, with resistance at 8120, 8240, and 8360 May.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was closed today. Less than expected Malaysian inventories and on hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Indonesia is once again making moves to cut the availability of Palm Oil for export as it manages high internal prices. Canola was higher on the price action in Chicago. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight. Futures prices are still in a trading range.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 1157.00, 1141.00, and 1133.00 May, with resistance at 1175.00, 1178.00, and 1183.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 6740 July. Support is at 6150, 6020, and 5910 July, with resistance at 6530, 6650, and 6770 July.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal.
US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn
HRW
SRW
Soybeans
Soybean Meal
Soybean Oil
March
123 May
250 May
130 May
150 May
April
123 May
250 May
130 May
150 May
May
123 July
230 July
135 July
155 July
DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 18
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1150.70 -10.00 May 2022 up 5.70
Basis: Thunder Bay 1231.00 60.00 May 2022 up 10.30
Basis: Vancouver 1241.00 70.00 May 2022 up 10.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 121,622 lots, or 7.44 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 6,132 6,138 6,074 6,124 6,155 6,109 -46 3,683 11,864
Jul-22 6,156 6,188 6,103 6,174 6,189 6,151 -38 91,494 108,483
Sep-22 6,040 6,076 5,999 6,063 6,070 6,043 -27 17,966 25,859
Nov-22 5,903 5,916 5,868 5,906 5,926 5,894 -32 8,009 13,194
Jan-23 5,887 5,887 5,834 5,865 5,886 5,854 -32 424 1,469
Mar-23 5,825 5,850 5,805 5,849 5,850 5,828 -22 46 135
Corn
Turnover: 656,952 lots, or 19.48 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 2,868 2,892 2,863 2,887 2,868 2,882 14 89,860 328,329
Jul-22 2,920 2,951 2,918 2,947 2,922 2,941 19 78,802 331,044
Sep-22 2,969 2,998 2,959 2,991 2,963 2,984 21 456,375 1,152,917
Nov-22 2,953 2,979 2,944 2,975 2,944 2,967 23 8,916 62,612
Jan-23 2,961 2,988 2,957 2,984 2,959 2,979 20 14,666 73,319
Mar-23 2,983 3,011 2,983 3,009 2,983 3,000 17 8,333 25,155
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,310,796 lots, or 52.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 4,055 4,143 4,033 4,133 4,048 4,083 35 118,575 238,912
Jul-22 4,049 4,139 4,030 4,132 4,043 4,089 46 69,548 241,008
Aug-22 3,985 4,091 3,981 4,086 4,003 4,039 36 16,454 140,692
Sep-22 3,934 4,033 3,913 4,029 3,931 3,978 47 1,002,291 1,288,043
Nov-22 3,844 3,933 3,808 3,933 3,834 3,881 47 24,673 78,442
Dec-22 3,769 3,855 3,750 3,853 3,761 3,805 44 10,858 23,048
Jan-23 3,678 3,771 3,664 3,769 3,673 3,719 46 56,912 162,976
Mar-23 3,561 3,653 3,553 3,647 3,560 3,603 43 11,485 7,877
Palm Oil
Turnover: 699,218 lots, or 80.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 12,792 12,898 12,756 12,828 12,738 12,830 92 26,632 59,658
Jun-22 12,236 12,378 12,216 12,318 12,214 12,294 80 16,581 52,779
Jul-22 11,838 12,004 11,826 11,976 11,840 11,936 96 10,047 45,908
Aug-22 11,548 11,734 11,544 11,674 11,550 11,660 110 7,485 23,370
Sep-22 11,340 11,532 11,322 11,458 11,330 11,448 118 630,094 309,957
Oct-22 11,196 11,392 11,186 11,316 11,164 11,310 146 3,622 9,142
Nov-22 11,200 11,200 11,120 11,180 10,954 11,170 216 9 315
Dec-22 11,036 11,082 10,948 11,002 10,870 11,024 154 7 126
Jan-23 10,850 10,986 10,844 10,886 10,786 10,918 132 4,724 17,805
Feb-23 10,874 10,918 10,874 10,918 10,702 10,896 194 2 65
Mar-23 10,730 10,798 10,706 10,706 10,614 10,746 132 15 78
Apr-23 – – – 10,614 10,614 10,614 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 485,468 lots, or 53.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 11,042 11,234 11,042 11,210 11,062 11,146 84 20,157 75,207
Jul-22 11,086 11,238 11,060 11,214 11,060 11,172 112 21,115 91,684
Aug-22 11,030 11,184 11,010 11,158 11,006 11,102 96 12,020 54,654
Sep-22 10,962 11,114 10,932 11,090 10,940 11,032 92 406,922 426,167
Nov-22 10,850 10,984 10,806 10,964 10,820 10,924 104 11,434 20,236
Dec-22 10,796 10,928 10,776 10,904 10,756 10,870 114 6,780 5,204
Jan-23 10,738 10,880 10,726 10,864 10,704 10,824 120 7,020 15,311
Mar-23 10,678 10,730 10,560 10,728 10,598 10,642 44 20 175
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322