About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower on Friday after making new highs for the move on dry weather forecasts for the Great Plains and on news that India has waived import taxes on Cotton until September. It looks like some speculative long liquidation hit the market on Friday. Trends remain up on the daily and weekly charts. India will now increase imports as world and US Cotton is now lower cost to importers. Much of the western parts of the Great Plains have missed out on recent precipitation events and are likely to miss out again this week. Production of the next US crop is at risk now. There was talk about less demand for the market in part from Fed moves to control the inflation now seen in the US and around the world. Traders are getting worried about a potential recession caused by Fed tightening. China has been buying even with the port closures and domestic difficulties caused by renewed Covid lockdowns. Traders are worried about Chinese demand moving forward. China has closed two ports for imports due to Covid and is also closing down a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and bear to below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 137.41 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,101 bales, from 1,101 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 149.20 and 159.20 May. Support is at 13920, 13460, and 13160 May, with resistance of 14620, 14740 and 14860 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 12, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 306,594
: Positions :
: 76,122 11,819 70,663 54,112 204,572 83,904 10,627 284,801 297,681: 21,792 8,913
: Changes from: April 5, 2022 (Change in open interest: -7,295) :
: 1,524 1,417 -6,209 -871 -2,292 -1,535 -10 -7,091 -7,094: -205 -201
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 24.8 3.9 23.0 17.6 66.7 27.4 3.5 92.9 97.1: 7.1 2.9
: Total Traders: 292 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 131 38 88 55 66 50 20 264 189:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ On-Call Cotton – Apr 14
As of Apr 8. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
May 22 18,984 27,814 -8,830 3,016 4,385 -1,369
Jul 22 58,772 54,902 3,870 6,117 5,923 194
Oct 22 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 22 46,307 44,769 1,538 26,679 26,378 301
Mar 23 6,765 5,146 1,619 2,514 2,238 276
May 23 4,074 3,441 633 83 39 44
Jul 23 7,949 6,469 1,480 765 611 154
Dec 23 3,127 2,673 454 9,346 9,065 281
Mar 24 0 0 0 0 0 0
May 24 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 24 0 0 0 220 220 0
Dec 24 0 0 0 249 249 0
Total 145,978 145,214 764 48,989 49,108 -119
Open Open Change
Int Int
May 22 46,011 78,524 -32,513
Jul 22 80,805 63,723 17,082
Oct 22 44 44 0
Dec 22 68,399 63,952 4,447
Mar 23 11,147 8,960 2,187
May 23 2,637 2,502 135
Jul 23 2,837 2,252 585
Dec 23 9,166 8,611 555
Mar 24 34 8 26
May 24 10 7 3
Jul 24 22 16 6
Dec 24 10 6 4
Total 221,122 228,605 -7,483

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was sharply higher last week as the market now knows it is short Oranges and short juice production. Futures were a little lower on Friday on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation before the long weekend. The greening disease has taken its toll on the US crop and the previous Brazil crop was down significantly due to drought. Trends are still up on the daily charts. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good but it is drier now and some tree stress could develop soon. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures. Florida Mutual said that FCOJ inventories are now 32% less than last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry co0.6ditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 174.00, 169.00, and 164.00 May, with resistance at 184.00, 190.00, and 196.00 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 12, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 17,003 :
: Positions :
: 2,142 12,833 2,734 0 12 4,273 0 94 1,492 283 2,681 :
: Changes from: April 5, 2022 :
: -16 4 -627 0 -48 456 -25 35 -78 41 457 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.6 75.5 16.1 0.0 0.1 25.1 0.0 0.6 8.8 1.7 15.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 71 :
: 16 17 5 0 . 25 0 . 15 5 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were both lower again last week as deliveries from Brazil remain less than needed by the market and on ideas of less demand from Ukraine, Russia, and China. Deliveries from Vietnam and Brazil Robusta are noted to be increasing but Robusta was following New York. Brazil deliveries are able to expand, but the recent strength in the Brazilian Real is keeping producers from offering right now. Less deliveries are reported from Vietnam now as producers have sold most of the crop and are holding the rest and waiting for higher prices, but the market is still flush from Vietnamese selling seen earlier in the year. Good growing conditions for the next crop in Brazil are still around but flowering is reported to be uneven this year in at least some areas. New York made a key reversal on the weekly charts last week so weaker prices are anticipated this week.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.080 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 197.25 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated to scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 212.00, 206.00, and 198.00 May. Support is at 221.00, 217.00, and 213.00 May, and resistance is at 225.00, 233.00 and 238.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2060, 2010, and 2000 May, and resistance is at 2120, 2150, and 2180 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 12, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 258,918
: Positions :
: 37,003 7,386 63,003 92,783 167,410 54,983 14,865 247,772 252,664: 11,146 6,254
: :
: Changes from: April 5, 2022 (Change in open interest: -23,771) :
: 6,024 -199 -19,404 -10,500 -3,958 114 -378 -23,766 -23,939: -5 168
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.3 2.9 24.3 35.8 64.7 21.2 5.7 95.7 97.6: 4.3 2.4
: :
: Total Traders: 399 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 133 57 115 123 127 44 23 357 285:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/12/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
113,743 60,258 71,845 3,163 7,471 1,540
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 53.0% 63.2% 2.8% 6.6% 1.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
136 47 43 10 7 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
23,224 4,406 1,960 4,346 11,358 12,730
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
20.4% 3.9% 1.7% 3.8% 10.0% 11.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
28 13 11 6 16 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,522 2,433
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.7% 2.1%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York were lower last week and London closed higher. Weekly chart trends are up in both markets but London appears to be the stronger market. Increased offers from India and Thailand are expected if the market continues to rally. The US government has proposed to open the reserve in an effort to lower petroleum prices here and this affected Sugar due to the potential for reduced ethanol demand from the lower prices. It is also permitting refiners to blend 15% ethanol into the fuel mixtures instead of 10% for the coming Summer. Russia has left a trail of atrocities in its withdrawal from Kiev and other cities in Ukraine. News reports indicate that little export activity is taking place from Ukraine with the ports basically closed. Russia said it is still exporting from Black Sea ports. India and Thailand expect improved crops this year. Thailand expects to produce about10 million tons of sugar this year, up 33% from last year. India said it could produce more than 9.0 million tons of Sugar. Brazil could also have better Sugarcane production this year but the strengthening Real implies that most of the refining will be for Ethanol and not Sugar.
Overnight News: Brazil will get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1990, 1960, and 1930 July and resistance is at 2040, 2070, and 2100 July. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 541.00, 535.00, and 532.00 August and resistance is at 560.00, 566.00, and 572.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 12, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,098,860
: Positions :
: 173,427 46,336 202,449 288,023 727,283 319,596 67,807 983,495 1,043,874: 115,365 54,986
: :
: Changes from: April 5, 2022 (Change in open interest: 82,476) :
: 40,379 -5,399 11,429 7,705 71,478 14,735 6,180 74,248 83,687: 8,228 -1,211
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.8 4.2 18.4 26.2 66.2 29.1 6.2 89.5 95.0: 10.5 5.0
: :
: Total Traders: 256 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 94 36 81 70 73 42 18 235 180:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/12/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
76,877 30,064 64,063 8,937 3,946 2,273
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 39.1% 83.3% 11.6% 5.1% 3.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
108 34 40 8 3 5
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
24,185 1,398 1,919 1,951 725 648
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
31.5% 1.8% 2.5% 2.5% 0.9% 0.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
32 4 13 8 5 8
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,900 1,905
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
9.0% 2.5%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were lower last week. Daily chart trends are still mixed in New York and are now mixed in London. The weekly charts also show mixed trends. The moves are coming before the grind data for the first quarter is released. The EU released bullish data last week as demand improved more than expected. The grind was 373,098 tons, up 4.3% from last year and up 2.1% from the previous quarter. Asia and North America are expected to release grind data early this week, The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa but some are concerned about dry weather that could affect the yields for the midcrop harvest. Some showers are in the forecast for West Africa and have been for several weeks, but the precipitation was less than normal last week. Farmers there say that soil moisture conditions are good for the midcrop, but there are concerns that conditions are too dry overall for the best yields. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels but Ivory Coast arrivals are ahead of last year.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.754 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2490, 2400, and 2380 May, with resistance at 2650, 2680, and 2710 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1740, 1710, and 1700 May, with resistance at 1790, 1810, and 1820 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 12, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 279,449
: Positions :
: 43,238 28,414 65,640 94,210 152,515 59,198 23,554 262,286 270,124: 17,163 9,325
: Changes from: April 5, 2022 (Change in open interest: 6,115) :
: 2,354 -445 5,779 -1,984 1,621 -896 -815 5,253 6,140: 862 -24
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.5 10.2 23.5 33.7 54.6 21.2 8.4 93.9 96.7: 6.1 3.3
: Total Traders: 219 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 65 61 68 48 38 30 20 183 155:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/12/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
294,885 157,986 181,454 23,802 37,666 23,184
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 53.6% 61.5% 8.1% 12.8% 7.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
133 50 43 12 7 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
33,645 7,227 13,460 12,419 727 27,656
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
11.4% 2.5% 4.6% 4.2% 0.2% 9.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
25 16 18 14 6 14
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
2,733 3,511
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.9% 1.2%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322