About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Apr 14 

    For the week ended Apr 7, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in

thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,

less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total

commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.

   The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and

and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and

soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA

               wk’s net chg             total

               in commitments        commitments      undlvd sales

              this yr  next yr   this yr   last yr  this yr  next yr

wheat            96.1    225.2   19238.3   25129.3   3092.2   1902.8

  hrw             1.2     99.8    7548.5    8546.6   1334.1    503.8

  srw            61.6     52.0    2834.9    1771.8    487.1    509.0

  hrs            28.9     48.3    5321.0    7521.4    816.9    539.4

  white           4.2     25.1    3344.3    6616.9    438.6    286.3

  durum           0.2      0.0     189.6     672.6     15.5     64.4

corn           1332.9    403.1   55769.4   66810.8  20395.9   2973.8

soybeans        548.9    458.0   56635.6   60762.6  11507.4   8921.3

soymeal         174.9      6.0    9396.7    9135.6   2961.7    343.4

soyoil            6.1      0.0     645.6     653.5    145.2      0.0

upland cotton    59.3    132.0   14319.4   14969.2   6906.6   2660.5

pima cotton       2.1      4.1     447.4     749.9    134.5     34.6

sorghum           8.5      0.0    6758.1    7043.7   2538.3      0.0

barley            0.1      0.0      20.5      29.2      5.8      8.6

rice             50.1      0.0    2523.8    2813.7    532.8      0.0

WHEAT 

General Comments:   Wheat markets were higher again yesterday as the western US Great Plains remained too dry and crop conditions were very poor although improved from the previous week.  Trends are up in all three markets due to the poor growing conditions for the crops in the ground.  Ports are closed in Ukraine and Russian shippers and exporters are not offering in part due to sanctions but mostly due to the war and the chance to lose ships due to reports of mines in the Black Sea placed by the Russians.  Ukraine can rail the exports to the EU for shipment but the amount that can be moved is very limited.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average below normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers.  Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 1157 and 1280 May.  Support is at 1079, 1045, and 1017 May, with resistance at 1156, 1164, and 1200 May.  Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 1172 May.  Support is at 10690, 1065, and 1045 May, with resistance at 1157, 1164, and 1200 May.  Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 1222 and 1325 May.  Support is at 1116, 1097, and 10491 May, and resistance is at 1207, 1222, and 1235 May.

RICE:                                                 

General Comments:  Rice was mixed yesterday and held the weekly trading range in moderate volume trading.  Nearby months were stronger than deferred months.  Trends are still turning down on the daily charts.  The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere in light volumes.  Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal.  Growing conditions are considered good for crops right now although it has been a little cold.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1553, 1526, and 1521 May.  Support is at 1561, 1548, and 1547 May and resistance is at 1591, 1600, and 1617 May.

CORN AND OATS: 

General Comments:  Corn closed higher yesterday after trading lower early in the session.  Futures made new highs for the move as the market deals with less due to the war in Ukraine and the planting intentions of US farmers for the coming growing season.  The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter and could be enough to keep Corn prices trending higher for now.  The ports remain closed and Ukraine can rail out to the EU in limited amounts.  Russia is also a Corn exporter and no product is moving from either country at this time  China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response.  The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic.  The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people can’t make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes.  However, China has been a very big buyer of US Corn over the last couple of weeks as they need the feed and Ukraine cannot currently offer any supply.  President Biden has said he will permit the use of higher ethanol blends in gasoline this Summer in an effort to control inflation and high fuel prices.

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 784, 804, and 819 May.  Support is at 768, 759, and 749 May, and resistance is at 789, 792, and 798 May.  Trends in Oats are up with no objectives.  Support is at 786, 760, and 741 May, and resistance is at 812, 818, and 824 May.

SOYBEANS 

General Comments:  Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher yesterday after being lower early in the session as there are increasing concerns in the US about the cold and wet Midwest weather keeping farmers from the fields for planting.  President Biden has said he will support expanded use of bio fuels this Summer in an effort to control higher fuel prices. More sanctions are now threatened for Russia due to what the world is seeing in Ukraine right now.  There are still worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there.  China has not been mentioned as a Soybeans buyer in the daily sales reports from USDA for the last couple of weeks.  Supplies available to the export market from South America remain limited.  Both Ukraine and Russia are major exporters of Sunoil and control about 80% of the market combined but no Sunoil is moving from either country these days.  China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America.  They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs.  Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market.  The world situation is still tightening as Brazil and Argentina harvested less Soybeans.

Overnight News:  China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1720, 1790, and 1861 May.  Support is at 1652, 1646, and 1615 May, and resistance is at 1698, 1739, and 1768 May.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.   Support is at 453.00, 448.00, and 442.00 May, and resistance is at 472.00 480.00, and 485.00 May.  Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 7940, 8220, and 8550 May.  Support is at 7720, 7660, and 7530 May, with resistance at 7880, 8000, and 8120 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL 

General Comments:  Palm Oil was higher today on less than expected Malaysian inventories and on hopes for better demand from India.  A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports.  The economy could slow down and affect demand.  Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production.  Indonesia is once again making moves to cut the availability of Palm Oil for export as it manages high internal prices.  Canola was higher in response to the dry conditions in Canada and the price action in Chicago.  It traded lower early in the session.   It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting.  There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well.  Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.  Futures prices are still in a trading range.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 1141.00, 1133.00, and 1115.00 May, with resistance at 1175.00, 1178.00, and 1183.00 May.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6250 and 6740 July.  Support is at 5910, 5750, and 5570 July, with resistance at 6060, 6150, and 6340 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Scattered showers and storms.  Temperatures should average above normal.

 

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn 

HRW 

SRW 

Soybeans 

Soybean Meal 

Soybean Oil 

March 

123 May 

250 May 

130 May 

150 May 

April 

123 May 

250 May 

130 May 

150 May 

May 

123 July 

230 July 

135 July 

155 July 

 

 

[JS1] 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 13 

     WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures.

     Source: ICE Futures

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

                     Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region         1147.60   -10.00     May  2022    dn  9.30

Basis: Thunder Bay  1215.00    60.00     May  2022    dn  2.60

Basis: Vancouver    1225.00    70.00     May  2022    dn  2.60

     All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

     *Quote for previous day.

     Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,

or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 14 

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

                Offer      Change      Bid         Change   Traded

Apr             1677.50    +10.00      Unquoted    –        –

May             1667.50    +25.00      Unquoted    –        –

Jun             1597.50    +30.00      Unquoted    –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep     1477.50    +40.00      Unquoted    –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec     1427.50    +40.00      Unquoted    –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB,     Malaysian ports

                 Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Apr             1680.00     +10.00      Unquoted   –        –

May             1670.00     +25.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jun             1600.00     +30.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep     1480.00     +40.00      Unquoted    –       –

Oct/Nov/Dec     1430.50     +40.00      Unquoted    –

RBD palm stearin, FOB,  Malaysian ports

                 Offer      Change       Bid       Change   Traded

Apr              1630.00     00.00       Unquoted  –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

                 Offer       Change       Bid       Change   Traded

Apr              1460.00     +10.00       Unquoted  –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                 Offer       Change        Bid        Change   Traded

Apr              6800.00     +100.00       Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                 Offer      Change         Bid        Change   Traded

Apr              485.00     +08.00         Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.2288)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 14 

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 116,239 lots, or .71 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

May-22     6,176     6,176     6,117     6,161     6,185     6,136       -49     3,598    12,536

Jul-22     6,193     6,208     6,145     6,191     6,212     6,171       -41    89,273   111,761

Sep-22     6,092     6,098     6,041     6,085     6,095     6,062       -33    16,148    20,733

Nov-22     5,904     5,920     5,882     5,916     5,915     5,896       -19     6,793    13,183

Jan-23     5,870     5,887     5,845     5,887     5,871     5,862        -9       403     1,217

Mar-23     5,824     5,849     5,821     5,845     5,844     5,829       -15        24       106

Corn

Turnover: 742,027 lots, or 21.67 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

May-22     2,831     2,864     2,831     2,859     2,835     2,849        14   116,675     375,070

Jul-22     2,877     2,910     2,877     2,907     2,884     2,898        14    84,203     307,551

Sep-22     2,920     2,954     2,914     2,949     2,919     2,937        18   490,908   1,023,134

Nov-22     2,908     2,949     2,906     2,940     2,910     2,930        20    12,412      60,290

Jan-23     2,928     2,964     2,925     2,955     2,927     2,950        23    19,299      70,117

Mar-23     2,952     2,988     2,948     2,980     2,951     2,974        23    18,530      23,817

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,138,551 lots, or 44.59 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

May-22     4,024     4,059     3,997     4,056     4,021     4,033        12   141,415     357,091

Jul-22     4,018     4,054     3,992     4,051     4,018     4,028        10    61,059     242,337

Aug-22     3,985     4,015     3,962     4,010     3,985     3,989         4    11,510     137,356

Sep-22     3,923     3,938     3,875     3,928     3,915     3,914        -1   831,230   1,251,607

Nov-22     3,798     3,829     3,774     3,815     3,809     3,801        -8    21,650      77,639

Dec-22     3,725     3,752     3,703     3,752     3,735     3,729        -6     7,969      22,950

Jan-23     3,631     3,666     3,610     3,652     3,647     3,643        -4    53,878     147,743

Mar-23     3,503     3,541     3,492     3,528     3,517     3,521         4     9,840       7,164

Palm Oil

Turnover: 711,968 lots, or 78.30 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Apr-22    13,060    13,060    13,060    13,060    13,514    13,758       244       130     1,252

May-22    12,120    12,488    12,106    12,390    12,050    12,308       258    64,286    91,657

Jun-22    11,636    12,030    11,636    11,908    11,642    11,862       220    18,332    55,241

Jul-22    11,200    11,556    11,198    11,466    11,200    11,396       196    12,934    45,109

Aug-22    10,918    11,210    10,876    11,140    10,890    11,082       192    10,393    23,652

Sep-22    10,688    10,988    10,646    10,918    10,680    10,828       148   594,317   281,566

Oct-22    10,600    10,848    10,528    10,808    10,576    10,722       146     3,197     9,447

Nov-22    10,578    10,702    10,578    10,686    10,494    10,648       154        27       380

Dec-22    10,348    10,580    10,104    10,532    10,356    10,482       126        25       126

Jan-23    10,220    10,588    10,204    10,504    10,240    10,394       154     8,306    15,058

Feb-23    10,208    10,310    10,208    10,310    10,178    10,270        92         8        69

Mar-23    10,178    10,300    10,090    10,278    10,112    10,210        98        13        81

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 564,368 lots, or 6.10 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

May-22    10,802    11,046    10,750    10,914    10,802    10,888        86    36,145   108,412

Jul-22    10,790    11,054    10,766    10,930    10,802    10,920       118    20,218    92,247

Aug-22    10,790    11,162    10,722    10,874    10,770    10,852        82    11,291    53,911

Sep-22    10,704    10,968    10,652    10,818    10,708    10,802        94   474,877   389,690

Nov-22    10,600    10,780    10,528    10,680    10,580    10,668        88     7,684    20,021

Dec-22    10,540    10,796    10,474    10,664    10,528    10,606        78     6,359     5,008

Jan-23    10,488    10,680    10,426    10,566    10,474    10,584       110     7,786    11,440

Mar-23    10,310    10,450    10,310    10,450    10,318    10,372        54         8       173

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322