About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT

General Comments:   Wheat markets were higher again yesterday as the western US Great Plains remained too dry and crop conditions were very poor although improved from the previous week.  Precipitation was reported in Texas last week but was very light.   Trends are up in all three markets due to the poor growing conditions for the crops in the ground.  Ports are closed in Ukraine and Russian shippers and exporters are not offering in part due to sanctions but mostly due to the war and the chance to lose ships due to reports of mines in the Black Sea placed by the Russians.  Ukraine can rail the exports to the EU for shipment but the amount that can be moved is very limited. 

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average below normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers.  Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 1157 and 1280 May.  Support is at 1044, 1017, and 1014 May, with resistance at 1102, 1156, and 1164 May.  Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 1172 May.  Support is at 10690, 1065, and 1045 May, with resistance at 1157, 1164, and 1200 May.  Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 1222 and 1325 May.  Support is at 1116, 1097, and 10491 May, and resistance is at 1207, 1222, and 1235 May.

RICE:                                              

General Comments:  Rice was higher yesterday but held the weekly trading range in moderate volume trading.  Nearby months were weaker than deferred months.  Trends are turning down on the daily charts.  The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere in light volumes.  Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal.  Growing conditions are considered good for crops right now although it has been a little cold.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1553, 1526, and 1521 May.  Support is at 1561, 1548, and 1547 May and resistance is at 1591, 1600, and 1617 May.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Apr 13

USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices

of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields

and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)

and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA

                    —–World Price—–      MLG/LDP Rate

                     Milled Value  Rough      Rough

                     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)

Long Grain            15.01         9.50       0.00

Medium/Short Grain    14.80        10.10       0.00

Brokens                9.52         —-       —-

CORN AND OATS:

General Comments:  Corn closed higher yesterday and futures remain at the top end of the recent trading range as the market deals with less due to the war in Ukraine and the planting intentions of US farmers for the coming growing season.  The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter and could be enough to keep Corn prices trending higher for now.  The ports remain closed and Ukraine can rail out to the EU in limited amounts.  Russia is also a Corn exporter and no product is moving from either country at this time  China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response.  The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic.  The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people can’t make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes.  However, China has been a very big buyer of US Corn over the last couple of weeks as they need the feed and Ukraine cannot currently offer any supply.

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 784, 804, and 819 May.  Support is at 768, 759, and 749 May, and resistance is at 780, 786, and 792 May.  Trends in Oats are up with no objectives.  Support is at 786, 760, and 741 May, and resistance is at 812, 818, and 824 May.

SOYBEANS

General Comments:  Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday as there are increasing concerns in the US about the cold and wet Midwest weather keeping farmers from the fields for planting.  It is briefly warm early this week but then will turn colder again by this weekend.  More sanctions are now threatened for Russia due to what the world is seeing in Ukraine right now.  There are still worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there.  China has not been mentioned as a Soybeans buyer in the daily sales reports from USDA for the last couple of weeks.  Supplies available to the export market from South America remain limited.  Both Ukraine and Russia are major exporters of Sunoil and control about 80% of the market combined but no Sunoil is moving from either country these days.  China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America.  They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs.  Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market.  The world situation is still tightening as Brazil and Argentina harvested less Soybeans. 

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1720, 1790, and 1861 May.  Support is at 1646, 1615, and 1606 May, and resistance is at 1698, 1739, and 1768 May.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.   Support is at 448.00, 442.00, and 436.00 May, and resistance is at 472.00 480.00, and 485.00 May.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 7780, 7940, and 8220 May.  Support is at 7320, 7130, and 7050 May, with resistance at 7660, 7680, and 7730 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments Palm Oil was higher today on less than expected Malaysian inventories and on hopes for better demand from India.  A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports.  The economy could slow down and affect demand.  Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production.  Indonesia is once again making moves to cut the availability of Palm Oil for export as it manages high internal prices.  Canola was higher in response to the dry conditions in Canada and the price action in Chicago   It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting.  There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well.  Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.  Futures prices are still in a trading range.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 1185.00, 1194.00, and 1224.00 May.  Support is at 1152.00, 1133.00, and 1115.00 May, with resistance at 1175.00, 1178.00, and 1183.00 May.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 5950, 5750, and 5650 June, with resistance at 6340, 6380, and 6500 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Scattered showers and storms.  Temperatures should average above normal.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322