About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON       

General Comments:  Cotton was lower last week on weaker export sales.  The US sold less than 130 million bales of Cotton for this and the next crop year combined.  USDA made no changes to the US ending stocks estimates or to the supply or demand side of the ledger.  It did increase world production and ending stocks levels so the report had a bearish component.  Nearby months were lower on the news and the bad export sales, but new crop found support as it is currently veery dry again in the western Great Plains.  Production i=of the next crop is at risk now.  There was talk about less demand for the market in part from Fed moves to control the inflation now seen in the US and around the world.  Traders are getting worried about a potential recession caused by Fed tightening.  China has been buying even with the port closures and domestic difficulties caused by renewed Covid lockdowns.  Traders are worried about Chinese demand moving forward.  China has closed two ports for imports due to Covid and is also closing down a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation.  Shanghai has asked office workers to follow a hybrid model used here in the US and is closing financial markets.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 128.84 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 144 bales, from 144 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 127.40 and 119.10 May.  Support is at 13040, 12710, and 12440 May, with resistance of 13690, 14070 and 14200 May.

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use  1/

================================================================================

                            2019/20   2020/21 Est.  2021/22 Proj.  2021/22 Proj.

Item                                                          Mar            Apr

================================================================================

                                               Million Acres

  Planted                     13.74          12.09          11.22          11.22

  Harvested                   11.50           8.27           9.97           9.97

                                                Pounds

Yield per Harvested

   Acre                         831            847            849            849

                                            Million 480 Pound Bales

Beginning Stocks               4.85           7.25           3.15           3.15

Production                    19.91          14.61          17.62          17.62

Imports                        0.00           0.00           0.01           0.01

  Supply, Total               24.77          21.86          20.78          20.78

Domestic Use                   2.15           2.40           2.55           2.55

Exports, Total                15.51          16.37          14.75          14.75

  Use, Total                  17.66          18.77          17.30          17.30

Unaccounted 2/                -0.15          -0.06          -0.02          -0.02

Ending Stocks                  7.25           3.15           3.50           3.50

Avg. Farm Price 3/             59.6           66.3           90.0           91.0

================================================================================

                                WASDE – 623 – 18                      April 2022

 

                           World Cotton Supply and Use  1/

                            (Million 480-Pound Bales)

================================================================================

                                    Supply                Use

Region                 Beginning Produc-                            Loss  Ending

                          Stocks    tion Imports Domestic Exports    2/   Stocks

================================================================================

                                  2021/22 Proj.

World

                     Mar   87.32  119.85   46.28  124.54   46.27    0.07   82.57

                     Apr   87.35  120.20   45.80  124.07   45.83    0.07   83.38

  World Less China

                     Mar   48.07   92.85   36.78   85.04   46.19    0.07   46.40

                     Apr   48.10   93.20   36.60   85.07   45.76    0.07   47.00

United States

                     Mar    3.15   17.62    0.01    2.55   14.75   -0.02    3.50

                     Apr    3.15   17.62    0.01    2.55   14.75   -0.02    3.50

Total Foreign

                     Mar   84.17  102.23   46.27  121.99   31.52    0.10   79.07

                     Apr   84.20  102.57   45.80  121.52   31.08    0.09   79.88

   Major Exporters  4/

                     Mar   31.69   59.56    1.88   35.38   27.39    0.02   30.33

                     Apr   31.69   59.56    1.88   35.38   26.99    0.02   30.73

   Major Importers  8/

                     Mar   49.83   39.44   41.89   82.40    2.67    0.08   46.02

                     Apr   49.85   39.77   41.42   81.91    2.73    0.07   46.32

================================================================================

                                WASDE – 623 – 28                      April 2022

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 05, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #033661                                                              Open Interest is   313,889

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   74,598    10,402    76,872    54,983   206,864    85,439    10,637   291,892   304,775:   21,997     9,114

    : Changes from: March 29, 2022             (Change in open interest:       9,371)         :

    :    2,157      -676     7,674        60     1,524    -1,279       247     8,612     8,769:      759       602

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     23.8       3.3      24.5      17.5      65.9      27.2       3.4      93.0      97.1:      7.0       2.9

    : Total Traders:   273          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      126        30        79        52        64        47        21       247       175:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was higher last week on what was called speculative buying.  Trends are up on the daily and weekly charts with the daily charts showing that new contract highs were made.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.  Florida Mutual said that FCOJ inventories are now 32% less than last year.  Nielsen said that Orange Juice prices moved higher last month although lower volumes were sold.  USDA noted higher oranges production than last month, but still less than last year for the US at 3.79 million tons, but Florida production is down from last month and last year at 1.72 million tons.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.   Brazil should get isolated showers and near normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives.  Support is at 164.00, 161.00, and 157.00 May, with resistance at 172.00, 178.00, and 184.00 May.

DJ Orange Juice Retail Prices Find New High — Market Talk

     1007 ET – Retail prices for orange juice have climbed to a fresh high, according to the latest data from Nielsen. The firm reports that retail orange juices have risen to $7.88 per gallon through late March, the highest price for orange juice going back to 2001. Meanwhile, gallons sold fell to 31.29 million — the third straight decline in monthly sales reported by Nielsen. Frozen orange juice concentrate futures trading on the ICE have been on the rise in the past month, gaining nearly 20% in that time. The most active contract is up 0.7% to just over $1.64 per pound, the highest level since August 2018. However, weather for orange crops globally may pressure futures in the short-term. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

Crop Production

ISSN: 1936-3737

Released April 8, 2022, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service

(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of

Agriculture (USDA).

Orange Production Up Less Than 1 Percent from March Forecast

The United States all orange forecast for the 2021-2022 season is

3.79 million tons, up less than 1 percent from the previous forecast but

down 14 percent from the revised 2020-2021 utilization. The Florida all

orange forecast, at 38.2 million boxes (1.72 million tons), is down 7 percent

from the previous forecast and down 28 percent from last season’s revised

utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast

at 18.2 million boxes (819,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast

but down 20 percent from last season’s final utilization. The Florida

Valencia orange forecast, at 20.0 million boxes (900,000 tons), is down 13

percent from the previous forecast and down 34 percent from last season’s

revised utilization.

The California all orange forecast is 51.3 million boxes (2.05 million tons),

is up 8 percent from previous forecast and up 5 percent from last season’s

revised final utilization. The California Navel orange forecast is

43.0 million boxes (1.72 million tons), is up 10 percent from the previous

forecast and up 4 percent from last season’s revised final utilization. The

California Valencia orange forecast is 8.30 million boxes (332,000 tons), is

down 3 percent from the previous forecast but up 8 percent from last season’s

revised final utilization. The Texas all orange forecast, at 350,000 boxes

(15,000 tons), is down 13 percent from the previous forecast and

down 67 percent from last season’s final utilization.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 5, 2022

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               :

CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is    16,675                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    2,158    12,828     3,361         0        60     3,817        25        59     1,570       242     2,225 :

: Changes from:     March 29, 2022                                                                             :

:     -184       924       246         0        60       828       -60        18      -163        18       532 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     12.9      76.9      20.2       0.0       0.4      22.9       0.1       0.4       9.4       1.5      13.3 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    71                     :

:       16        15         7         0         .        22         .         .        16         6         6 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE 

General Comments New York was higher as deliveries from Brazil remain less than needed by the market but London was lower on ideas of less demand from Ukraine, Russia, and China and as deliveries from Vietnam and Brazil Robusta are noted to be increasing.  Selling has come from news that the Brazilian logistical problems are working themselves out and that deliveries are able to expand.  The war is causing ideas of less Russian and Uranian demand and the return of Covid has the potential to really hurt Chinese demand as cities and ports have shut down there.  Less deliveries are reported from Vietnam now as producers have sold most of the crop and are holding the rest and waiting for higher prices.  Good growing conditions for the next crop in Brazil are still around but flowering is reported to be uneven this year in at least some areas.  Vietnam exported 581,693 tons of coffee in the first quarter, up 28.3% from the same period a year earlier.  IBGE said that Brazil’s coffee production this year is seen at 56.1 million 60-kg bags, up 0.9% from a previous projection.  

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.077 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 202.10 ct/lb.  Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 225.00, 221.00, and 217.00 May, and resistance is at 236.00, 239.00 and 242.00 May.  Trends in London are down with objectives of 2040 and 1970 May.   Support is at 2060, 2010, and 2000 May, and resistance is at 2120, 2150, and 2180 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 05, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #083731                                                              Open Interest is   282,689

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   30,980     7,585    82,406   103,283   171,369    54,870    15,244   271,538   276,603:   11,151     6,086

    : Changes from: March 29, 2022             (Change in open interest:      -2,835)         :

    :    4,743    -2,918      -558    -6,626     2,903    -1,131    -1,509    -3,572    -2,083:      737      -753

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     11.0       2.7      29.2      36.5      60.6      19.4       5.4      96.1      97.8:      3.9       2.2

    : Total Traders:   395          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      126        61       117       130       137        43        25       355       296:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 04/05/2022

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long      Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  115,037       61,167        76,120        3,231     6,929         1,370

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          53.2%         66.2%         2.8%      6.0%          1.2%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   137            48            44           10         6            10

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                      Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

  24,474         2,666         1,732     4,173       11,922          12,168

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  21.3%          2.3%          1.5%      3.6%        10.4%           10.6%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    33            8             11        11           13              15

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  6,722        2,130

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  5.8%         1.9%

SUGAR               

General Comments:  Both markets were higher last week and continue to follow world petroleum prices as much as anything.  The US government has proposed to open the reserve in an effort to lower petroleum prices here and this affected Sugar due to the potential for reduced ethanol demand from the lower prices.  Russia has left a trail of atrocities in its withdrawal from Kiev and other cities in Ukraine.  News reports indicate that little export activity is taking place from Ukraine with the ports basically closed.  Russia said it is still exporting from Black Sea ports.  India has signed contracts to export 7.2 million tons of White Sugar so far this year.  The government there is contemplating a cap of 8.0 million tons this year but industry has said production could be up to 9.0 million.  India and Thailand expect improved crops this year.  Thailand expects to produce about10 million tons of sugar this year, up 33% from last year.  Brazil could also have better Sugarcane production this year but the strengthening Real implies that most of the refining will be for Ethanol and not Sugar.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get isolated showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.  India will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2030 and 2100 July.  Support is at 1960, 1930, and 1910 July and resistance is at 2040, 2070, and 2100 July.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 545.00 and 555.00 August.  Support is at 541.00, 535.00, and 532.00 August and resistance is at 554.00, 560.00, and 566.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 05, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #080732                                                              Open Interest is 1,016,384

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :  133,048    51,735   191,019   280,318   655,805   304,862    61,627   909,247   960,187:  107,137    56,197

    : Changes from: March 29, 2022             (Change in open interest:      54,817)         :

    :   19,660    -5,093    16,215    -3,086    37,537     8,961     3,034    41,749    51,692:   13,068     3,124

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     13.1       5.1      18.8      27.6      64.5      30.0       6.1      89.5      94.5:     10.5       5.5

    : Total Traders:   227          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       72        35        79        67        69        38        19       210       173:

——————————————————————————————————————-

  U.S. Sugar Supply and Use  1/

================================================================================

                               2019/20  2020/21 Est. 2021/22 Proj. 2021/22 Proj.

Item                                                           Mar           Apr

================================================================================

                                             1000 Short Tons, Raw Value

Beginning Stocks                  1783          1618          1705          1705

Production 2/                     8149          9233          9384          9309

  Beet Sugar                      4351          5092          5389          5338

  Cane Sugar                      3798          4141          3996          3971

    Florida                       2106          2090          1960          1937

    Louisiana                     1566          1918          1906          1906

    Texas                          126           134           130           128

Imports                           4165          3195          3043          3058

  TRQ 3/                          2152          1749          1568          1568

  Other Program 4/                 432           292           250           250

  Other 5/                        1581          1154          1225          1240

    Mexico                        1376           968          1050          1050

      Total Supply               14097         14046         14132         14072

Exports                             61            49            35            35

Deliveries                       12344         12252         12405         12470

  Food                           12246         12135         12300         12365

  Other 6/                          98           116           105           105

Miscellaneous                       74            40             0             0

      Total Use                  12479         12341         12440         12505

Ending Stocks                     1618          1705          1692          1567

Stocks to Use Ratio               13.0          13.8          13.6          12.5

================================================================================

    Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/

================================================================================

                                    Supply                Use

Fiscal                  Beginning  Produc-  Imports Domestic  Exports   Ending

Year                      Stocks     tion               2/             Stocks

================================================================================

                                            1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight

Sugar

2020/21 Est.           

Mar                           858     5715       65     4420     1165     1053

Apr                           858     5715       65     4420     1165     1053

2021/22 Proj.          

Mar                          1053     5979       50     4412     1751      919

Apr                          1053     6167       50     4412     1939      919

================================================================================

                                WASDE – 623 – 17                      April 2022

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 04/05/2022

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  74,322        30,147        60,007        8,845      4,536         2,534

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          40.6%         80.7%         11.9%      6.1%          3.4%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   106            38            40            8          3            6

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                      Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

  21,759         1,713         1,917     2,010        832             781

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  29.3%          2.3%          2.6%      2.7%         1.1%            1.1%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    29            5             13        7            5               8

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  6,329        2,002

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  8.5%         2.7%

 

COCOA                                                                                 

General Comments New York and London were higher again last week.  Daily and weekly chart trends are still mixed in New York but are turning up in London.  The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa but some are concerned about dry weather that could affect the yields for the midcrop harvest.  Some showers are in the forecast for West Africa and have been for several weeks, but the precipitation was less than normal last week.  Farmers there say that soil moisture conditions are good for the midcrop, but there are concerns that conditions are too dry overall for the best yields.  Demand fears remain as Europe is the leading per capita consumer of Chocolate and demand could drop if the war in Ukraine expands or even if it doesn’t.  Demand fears have eased as the rest of Europe is not harmed yet.  The weather is good in Southeast Asia.  Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels but Ivory Coast arrivals are ahead of last year.  Ghana cocoa arrivals since October 1 are 524,000 tons by March 31, down 34% from 791,000 tons in the same period in the previous season.

Overnight News:  Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.769 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2580, 2490, and 2450 May, with resistance at 2650, 2680, and 2710 May.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 1800 and 1840 May.  Support is at 1780, 1770, and 1740 May, with resistance at 1810, 1820, and 1840 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 05, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #073732                                                              Open Interest is   273,333

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   40,883    28,859    59,861    96,194   150,894    60,094    24,369   257,033   263,984:   16,300     9,350

    : Changes from: March 29, 2022             (Change in open interest:     -21,503)         :

    :   -2,140       507    -7,145   -10,638   -11,820       552    -3,222   -19,371   -21,679:   -2,133       175

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     15.0      10.6      21.9      35.2      55.2      22.0       8.9      94.0      96.6:      6.0       3.4

    : Total Traders:   212          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       63        59        67        49        38        30        21       181       152:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 04/05/2022

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  292,638       161,762       177,020       26,596     37,329       22,281

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          55.3%         60.5%         9.1%       12.8%         7.6%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   129            49            42           12          7            11

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                       Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long         Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

  28,129         10,992       12,821     11,554        586            28,333

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

   9.6%          3.8%          4.4%      3.9%          0.2%            9.7%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    19            19            17        14            4               13

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  1,162        3,276

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  0.4%         1.1%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322