About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. February Coffee, Cocoa Imports-April 5

   In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds

by Dow Jones.

                       —-Feb 2022—-                —-Jan 2022—-

  -coffee-               kilograms          pounds       kilograms        pounds

coffee, unroasted      103,636,870     228,519,298     124,982,585   275,586,600

coffee, roasted          6,975,326      15,380,594       8,309,192    18,321,768

coffee, soluble

   instant               4,679,581      10,318,476       5,594,977    12,336,924

  -Cocoa-

cocoa beans             21,530,915      47,475,668      39,422,855    86,927,395

sweetened bars/block

  10 lbs or over         2,392,497       5,275,456       2,575,655     5,679,319

for retail candy                 0               0               0             0

cocoa butter             5,889,450      12,986,237       8,591,030    18,943,221

cocoa paste,

  not defatted           3,428,421       7,559,668       5,746,327    12,670,651

cocoa paste

   defatted              3,586,099       7,907,348       5,965,332    13,153,557

cocoa powder,

   unsweetened           6,611,077      14,577,425       8,278,048    18,253,096

cocoa powder,

    sweetened               63,852         140,794          31,049        68,463

confectioners

   coating               4,840,314      10,672,892       4,573,786    10,085,198

candy containing

 chocolate               9,004,040      19,853,908      10,547,774    23,257,842

 

COTTON       

General Comments:  Cotton was higher yesterday on demand hopes and word of possible further sanctions on Ukraine.  Kazakhstan said it might limit the export of grains but Cotton was not mentioned in the news wires.  Crude Oil was higher on the sanction reports.  The Russian army was pulling back from Kiev and atrocities are being seen in its wake.  Ukraine has said it is willing to offer some concessions to Russia in return for peace, but what Russia will accept is still not known.  Russia will move back to eastern Ukraine that it already controls and could launch a new offensive in the near term if the talks fail. not join NATO in return for peace.  China has been buying even with the port closures and domestic difficulties caused by renewed Covid lockdowns.  Traders are worried about Chinese demand moving forward.  China has closed two ports for imports due to Covid and is also closing down a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation.  Shanghai has asked office workers to follow a hybrid model used here in the US and is closing financial markets.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 135.23 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 144 bales, from 144 bales yesterday  USDA said that Cotton was 6% planted, from 4% last week and 6% last year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 13400, 13290, and 13040 May, with resistance of 14070, 14200 and 14320 May.

DJ U.S. February Cotton Exports-Apr 5

    In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department

Commerce.

(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.

Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.

                                      ——- In Kilograms ——-

                                Feb 22      Jan 22      Dec 21        Feb 21

Upland, under 1 inch         8,363,956   7,284,731   3,807,159    11,141,483

  1 to 1 1/8 inch          110,732,601  96,005,228  51,436,291   152,725,602

  upland 1 1/8 and over      7,798,140   6,288,104  10,287,877   178,550,486

Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc  230,153,878 196,595,612 122,417,860     9,032,022

All cotton                 357,048,575 306,173,675 187,949,187   351,449,593

                              ——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-

                                Feb 22      Jan 22      Dec 21        Feb 21

Upland, under 1 inch            38,415      33,458      17,486        51,172

  1 to 1 1/8 inch              508,591     440,948     236,245       701,463

  upland 1 1/8 and over         35,817      28,881      47,252       820,076

Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc    1,057,088     902,956     562,261        41,484

All cotton                   1,639,911   1,406,244     863,244     1,614,195

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was higher again yesterday and trends are up on the charts.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.  Florida Citrus Mutual said FCOJ stocks are now 31% less than last year.

Overnight News:  Florida should get scattered showers.  Temperatures will average above normal.   Brazil should get isolated showers and near normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 165.00 May.  Support is at 157.00, 154.00, and 151.00 May, with resistance at 163.00, 166.00, and 169.00 May.

COFFEE 

General Comments New York closed higher with a stronger Brazilian Real but London was lower on ideas of less demand from Ukraine, Russia, and China.  The funds have been the best sellers.  The lack of deliveries from Brazil and Indonesia are still supporting the futures market but the war is causing ideas of less Russian and Uranian demand and the return of Covid has the potential to really hurt Chinese demand as cities and ports have shut down there.  Less deliveries are reported from Vietnam now as producers have sold most of the crop and are holding the rest and waiting for higher prices.  Good growing conditions for the next crop in Brazil are still around but flowering is reported to be uneven this year in at least some areas.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.084 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 199.14 ct/lb.  Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 237.00 and 243.00 May.  Support is at 225.00, 221.00, and 217.00 May, and resistance is at 231.00, 236.00 and 239.00 May.  Trends in London are mixed.   Support is at 2110, 2060, and 2010 May, and resistance is at 2180, 2200, and 2220 May.

SUGAR               

General Comments:  Both markets were stronger yesterday on higher Crude Oil futures.  The US government has proposed to open the reserve in an effort to lower petroleum prices here and this affected Sugar due to the potential for reduced ethanol demand from the lower prices.  Russia announced it was pulling back from Kiev and other cities in Ukraine and has left a trail of atrocities in its withdrawal.  News reports indicate that little export activity is taking place from Ukraine or Russia with the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports basically closed.  Some of the oil giants have pulled operations out of Russia in response to the war, but others are still working there.   The Sugar trade could also be affected as both produce sugar beets.  India has signed contracts to export 7.2 million tons of White Sugar so far this year.  The government there is contemplating a cap of 8.0 million tons this year.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get isolated showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.  India will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1910, 1900, and 1880 July and resistance is at 1950, 1980, and 2010 July.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 526.00, 524.00, and 521.00 August and resistance is at 535.00, 538.00, and 548.00 August.

COCOA                                                                                 

General Comments New York and London were lower yesterday as the weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa.  Some showers are in the forecast for West Africa and have been for several weeks, but the precipitation was less than normal last week.  Farmers there say that soil moisture conditions are good for the midcrop..  Chart trends are sideways to up in New York and in London on the weekly charts despite improved crop conditions and in part despite demand fears as Europe is the leading per capita consumer of Chocolate and demand could drop if the war in Ukraine expands or even if it doesn’t.  Demand fears have eased as the rest of Europe is not harmed yet.  The weather is good in Southeast Asia.  Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels but Ivory Coast arrivals are ahead of last year.  Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.

Overnight News:  Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.695 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2540, 2490, and 2450 May, with resistance at 2650, 2690, and 2710 May.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1710, 1670, and 1660 May.  Support is at 1700, 1670, and 1650 May, with resistance at 1770, 1790, and 1810 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322