Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ U.S. February Coffee, Cocoa Imports-April 5
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Feb 2022—- —-Jan 2022—-
-coffee- kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 103,636,870 228,519,298 124,982,585 275,586,600
coffee, roasted 6,975,326 15,380,594 8,309,192 18,321,768
instant 4,679,581 10,318,476 5,594,977 12,336,924
cocoa beans 21,530,915 47,475,668 39,422,855 86,927,395
10 lbs or over 2,392,497 5,275,456 2,575,655 5,679,319
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 5,889,450 12,986,237 8,591,030 18,943,221
not defatted 3,428,421 7,559,668 5,746,327 12,670,651
defatted 3,586,099 7,907,348 5,965,332 13,153,557
unsweetened 6,611,077 14,577,425 8,278,048 18,253,096
sweetened 63,852 140,794 31,049 68,463
coating 4,840,314 10,672,892 4,573,786 10,085,198
chocolate 9,004,040 19,853,908 10,547,774 23,257,842
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday on demand hopes and word of possible further sanctions on Ukraine. Kazakhstan said it might limit the export of grains but Cotton was not mentioned in the news wires. Crude Oil was higher on the sanction reports. The Russian army was pulling back from Kiev and atrocities are being seen in its wake. Ukraine has said it is willing to offer some concessions to Russia in return for peace, but what Russia will accept is still not known. Russia will move back to eastern Ukraine that it already controls and could launch a new offensive in the near term if the talks fail. not join NATO in return for peace. China has been buying even with the port closures and domestic difficulties caused by renewed Covid lockdowns. Traders are worried about Chinese demand moving forward. China has closed two ports for imports due to Covid and is also closing down a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. Shanghai has asked office workers to follow a hybrid model used here in the US and is closing financial markets.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 135.23 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 144 bales, from 144 bales yesterday USDA said that Cotton was 6% planted, from 4% last week and 6% last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 13400, 13290, and 13040 May, with resistance of 14070, 14200 and 14320 May.
DJ U.S. February Cotton Exports-Apr 5
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Feb 22 Jan 22 Dec 21 Feb 21
Upland, under 1 inch 8,363,956 7,284,731 3,807,159 11,141,483
1 to 1 1/8 inch 110,732,601 96,005,228 51,436,291 152,725,602
upland 1 1/8 and over 7,798,140 6,288,104 10,287,877 178,550,486
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 230,153,878 196,595,612 122,417,860 9,032,022
All cotton 357,048,575 306,173,675 187,949,187 351,449,593
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Feb 22 Jan 22 Dec 21 Feb 21
Upland, under 1 inch 38,415 33,458 17,486 51,172
1 to 1 1/8 inch 508,591 440,948 236,245 701,463
upland 1 1/8 and over 35,817 28,881 47,252 820,076
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 1,057,088 902,956 562,261 41,484
All cotton 1,639,911 1,406,244 863,244 1,614,195
General Comments: FCOJ was higher again yesterday and trends are up on the charts. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition. Florida Citrus Mutual said FCOJ stocks are now 31% less than last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 165.00 May. Support is at 157.00, 154.00, and 151.00 May, with resistance at 163.00, 166.00, and 169.00 May.
General Comments: New York closed higher with a stronger Brazilian Real but London was lower on ideas of less demand from Ukraine, Russia, and China. The funds have been the best sellers. The lack of deliveries from Brazil and Indonesia are still supporting the futures market but the war is causing ideas of less Russian and Uranian demand and the return of Covid has the potential to really hurt Chinese demand as cities and ports have shut down there. Less deliveries are reported from Vietnam now as producers have sold most of the crop and are holding the rest and waiting for higher prices. Good growing conditions for the next crop in Brazil are still around but flowering is reported to be uneven this year in at least some areas.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.084 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 199.14 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 237.00 and 243.00 May. Support is at 225.00, 221.00, and 217.00 May, and resistance is at 231.00, 236.00 and 239.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2110, 2060, and 2010 May, and resistance is at 2180, 2200, and 2220 May.
General Comments: Both markets were stronger yesterday on higher Crude Oil futures. The US government has proposed to open the reserve in an effort to lower petroleum prices here and this affected Sugar due to the potential for reduced ethanol demand from the lower prices. Russia announced it was pulling back from Kiev and other cities in Ukraine and has left a trail of atrocities in its withdrawal. News reports indicate that little export activity is taking place from Ukraine or Russia with the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports basically closed. Some of the oil giants have pulled operations out of Russia in response to the war, but others are still working there. The Sugar trade could also be affected as both produce sugar beets. India has signed contracts to export 7.2 million tons of White Sugar so far this year. The government there is contemplating a cap of 8.0 million tons this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1910, 1900, and 1880 July and resistance is at 1950, 1980, and 2010 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 526.00, 524.00, and 521.00 August and resistance is at 535.00, 538.00, and 548.00 August.
General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday as the weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa. Some showers are in the forecast for West Africa and have been for several weeks, but the precipitation was less than normal last week. Farmers there say that soil moisture conditions are good for the midcrop.. Chart trends are sideways to up in New York and in London on the weekly charts despite improved crop conditions and in part despite demand fears as Europe is the leading per capita consumer of Chocolate and demand could drop if the war in Ukraine expands or even if it doesn’t. Demand fears have eased as the rest of Europe is not harmed yet. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels but Ivory Coast arrivals are ahead of last year. Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.695 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2540, 2490, and 2450 May, with resistance at 2650, 2690, and 2710 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1710, 1670, and 1660 May. Support is at 1700, 1670, and 1650 May, with resistance at 1770, 1790, and 1810 May.Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322