About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT

General Comments:   Wheat markets traded lower last week as the war between Ukraine and Russia continued.  Trends are sideways to down on the daily charts and down on the weekly charts for the Winter Wheat markets and sideways for the Minneapolis market for Spring Wheat due to less than expected planted area projections from farmers.  Russia announced it was pulling back from Kiev and other cities in Ukraine but has failed to do so.  Russia instead appears to be deploying its army near the major cities but in new locations.  Ukraine has said it is willing to offer some concessions to Russia in return for peace, but what Russia will accept is still not known.  Ports are closed in Ukraine and Russian shippers and exporters are not offering in part due to sanctions but mostly due to the war and the chance to lose ships.  Ukraine can rail the exports to the EU for shipment but the amount that can be moved is very limited.  The USDA prospective plantings report was considered bullish for Spring Wheat with farmers indicating they would plant on just 11.2 million acres, and the stocks report was mildly bullish to Wheat with stocks at 1.025 billion bushels.  The weekly export sales report weas poor. 

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average near normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 963 May.  Support is at 977, 981, and 945 May, with resistance at 1042, 1075, and 1102 May.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 1006, 993, and 981 May, with resistance at 1059, 1089, and 1106 May.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 1027, 1020, and 1016 May, and resistance is at 1116, 1122, and 1138 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 29, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #001602                                                              Open Interest is   471,606

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   44,034    87,226   140,363    52,611   171,187   199,966    33,756   436,973   432,533:   34,633    39,073

    : Changes from: March 22, 2022             (Change in open interest:     -47,012)         :

    :   -1,580       358   -27,290    -5,144    -7,251   -11,921   -13,094   -45,934   -47,276:   -1,078       264

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :      9.3      18.5      29.8      11.2      36.3      42.4       7.2      92.7      91.7:      7.3       8.3

    : Total Traders:   338          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       83        72       113        78       118        51        20       273       270:

——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 29, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #001612                                                              Open Interest is   204,327

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   31,566    15,780    44,023    33,792   113,099    75,118    11,764   184,499   184,667:   19,827    19,660

    : Changes from: March 22, 2022             (Change in open interest:      -4,581)         :

    :     -420        82       530      -737    -2,125    -2,570      -927    -3,197    -2,440:   -1,383    -2,140

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     15.4       7.7      21.5      16.5      55.4      36.8       5.8      90.3      90.4:      9.7       9.6

    : Total Traders:   222          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       50        38        57        56        80        35        15       171       165:

——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 29, 2022

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                     :

CFTC Code #001626                                                    Open Interest is    68,710                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:   26,547    51,762     1,611     1,178       608    14,725       720       410     7,674     1,028     2,801 :

: Changes from:     March 22, 2022                                                                             :

:    1,807        18      -194       -27        65       -76       141        13      -384      -110       166 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     38.6      75.3       2.3       1.7       0.9      21.4       1.0       0.6      11.2       1.5       4.1 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   103                     :

:       52        44         4         .         4        17         .         .         9         5         9 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:                                              

General Comments:  Rice was lower last week a poor weekly export sales report.  New crop prices were fractionally higher on Friday on reduced planted area indications from farmers in the survey released by USDA.  Farmers intend to plant on about 2.45 million acres this year, from above 2.5 million last year.  There is a lot of concern about the high costs of raising Rice.  Russia has said it is pulling its troops back from Ukrainian cites to eastern areas it already controls but as failed to do so and appears to be deploying troops around the cities again.  Trends are sideways on the daily charts.  The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere in lighter volumes.  Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1581, 1561, and 1548 May and resistance is at 1628, 1644, and 1684 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 29, 2022

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS)                                            :

CFTC Code #039601                                                    Open Interest is    10,802                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    5,853     7,898       184         0         0     1,354       467         0       236     1,135       496 :

: Changes from:     March 22, 2022                                                                             :

:      602       336         9         0         0      -115         0         0       -69        31        62 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     54.2      73.1       1.7       0.0       0.0      12.5       4.3       0.0       2.2      10.5       4.6 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    49                     :

:       17        17         .         0         0        10         .         0         4         6         5 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS:

General Comments:  Corn closed lower but inside the recent trading range on the daily and weekly charts last week partly in response to the USDA reports.  Some speculative long liquidation appeared to be getting done in the nearby months while new crop months held firm on the much reduced planted area ideas from farmers.  USDA estimated intended planted area at just under 89.5 million acres, a huge shock to the trade and below the lowest trade guess.  Farmers planted Corn on more than 93.3 million acres last year.  The quarterly stocks report showed supplies were 7.85 billion bushels, below the average trade guess but a little above last year.  The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter and could be enough to keep Corn prices trending higher for now.  Ukraine might not plant much if any Corn this Summer and already has trouble exporting it or Wheat.  The ports remain closed and Ukraine can rail out to the EU in limited amounts.  Russia is also a Corn exporter and no product is moving from either country at this time  China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response.  The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic.  The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people can’t make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes.

Overnight News:  China bought 1,084 million tons of US Corn for this and next year.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 784, 804, and 819 May.  Support is at 767, 727, and 714 May, and resistance is at 770, 784, and 792 May.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 712, 694, and 681 May, and resistance is at 747, 752, and 764 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 29, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #002602                                                              Open Interest is 2,062,031

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :  312,864    51,533   459,041   515,087 1,216,807   575,423    89,878 1,862,415 1,817,258:  199,616   244,773

    : Changes from: March 22, 2022             (Change in open interest:     -87,254)         :

    :  -33,388     9,976   -39,701    -3,606   -44,978    -5,256   -16,048   -81,951   -90,751:   -5,303     3,496

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     15.2       2.5      22.3      25.0      59.0      27.9       4.4      90.3      88.1:      9.7      11.9

    : Total Traders:   855          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      206        92       187       370       444        54        25       701       688:

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS

General Comments:  Soybeans and the products were lower last week on what appeared to be mostly speculative long liquidation in response to the USDA reports and worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there.  USDA showed higher than expected planting intentions at 90.95 million acres and higher than expected stocks levels at 1.93 billion bushels.  The war in Ukraine dragged on and as supplies available to the export market from South America remain limited.  Ukraine said it would propose that Russia keep the eastern areas it has already conquered, and that Ukraine would not join NATO   Russia said it will move back to eastern Ukraine that it already controls but so far has kept its forces near the major cities.  Both are major exporters of Sunoil and control about 80% of the market combined.  China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America.  They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs.  Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market.  Shanghai has said it will remain open but asked office workers to work from home in a hybrid format.   The world situation is still tightening as Brazil and Argentina are getting into the harvest of less Soybeans.  Paraguay might import Soybeans this year from Argentina. 

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1540, 1526 and 1462 May.  Support is at 1546, 1534, and 1526 May, and resistance is at 1604, 1616, and 1680 May.  Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 446.00, 431.00, and 427.00 May.   Support is at 448.00, 442.00, and 436.00 May, and resistance is at 465.00 480.00, and 485.00 May.  Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 6530, 6510, and 6040 May.  Support is at 6820, 6790, and 6650 May, with resistance at 7230, 7420, and 7520 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 29, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #005602                                                              Open Interest is   982,306

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :  140,566    47,057   238,929   279,401   556,229   261,347    48,445   920,242   890,660:   62,064    91,646

    : Changes from: March 22, 2022             (Change in open interest:     -34,020)         :

    :  -16,948     1,616   -24,226    15,244   -10,688    -6,760    -2,413   -32,691   -35,711:   -1,330     1,691

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     14.3       4.8      24.3      28.4      56.6      26.6       4.9      93.7      90.7:      6.3       9.3

    : Total Traders:   633          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      185        91       177       215       276        54        21       514       510:

——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 29, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #007601                                                              Open Interest is   400,221

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   65,759    17,951    67,946    99,706   278,710   130,788    14,762   364,200   379,369:   36,021    20,852

    : Changes from: March 22, 2022             (Change in open interest:     -15,243)         :

    :   -4,438     1,165    -2,602    -2,391   -12,813    -3,511    -1,660   -12,943   -15,910:   -2,300       668

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     16.4       4.5      17.0      24.9      69.6      32.7       3.7      91.0      94.8:      9.0       5.2

    : Total Traders:   265          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       79        34        61        83        88        39        16       227       176:

——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 29, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #026603                                                              Open Interest is   455,338

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   79,190    13,998    80,187    99,384   327,856   141,039    10,209   399,801   432,250:   55,537    23,088

    : Changes from: March 22, 2022             (Change in open interest:      -2,438)         :

    :   -3,707     2,044     1,026     1,121    -4,855    -1,596    -1,088    -3,156    -2,873:      718       435

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     17.4       3.1      17.6      21.8      72.0      31.0       2.2      87.8      94.9:     12.2       5.1

    : Total Traders:   272          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       77        36        69        88       100        40        13       238       191:

——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments Palm Oil was lower last week on price action in outside markets and as China is closing down for Covid reasons again.  It was higher today on what was called bargain hunting.  A new Covid outbreak is reported there and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports.  The economy could slow down and affect demand.  Demand in Malaysia could improve soon as Indonesia is expected to keep most Palm Oil at home.  However, production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production.  Indonesia is once again making moves to cut the availability of Palm Oil for export as it manages high internal prices.  Canola was a little lower in response to the USDA reports and despite dry conditions in Canada   It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting.  There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well.  Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.  Futures prices are still in a trading range.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 1115.00, 1106.00, and 1100.00 May, with resistance at 1156.00, 1160.00, and 1178.00 May.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5280 and 4330 June.  Support is at 5460, 5370, and 5280 June, with resistance at 5820, 5950, and 6090 June.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 29, 2022

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (20 Metric Tonnes)                                                                 :

CFTC Code #135731                                                    Open Interest is   165,520                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:   89,359   134,329     1,847     2,660     1,921    45,838     3,475     7,543     4,840     2,650    11,313 :

: Changes from:     March 22, 2022                                                                             :

:    3,895      -311       -89      -449       -39    -2,504     1,071       818      -742       385       526 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     54.0      81.2       1.1       1.6       1.2      27.7       2.1       4.6       2.9       1.6       6.8 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   253                     :

:       44        52         4         5         4        53        15        15        55        51        43 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry.  Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn

HRW

SRW

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

March

150 May

255 May

145 May

165 May

April

140 May

255 May

145 May

165 May

May

120 May

250 May

140 May

155 May

 

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 1

     WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures.

     Source: ICE Futures

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

                     Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region         1120.40   -10.00     May  2022    dn  3.60

Basis: Thunder Bay  1203.90    70.00     May  2022    up 23.50

Basis: Vancouver    1193.40    60.00     May  2022    up  3.50

     All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

     *Quote for previous day.

     Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,

or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 4

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

                Offer      Change      Bid         Change   Traded

Apr             1647.50     00.00      Unquoted    –        –

May             1582.50    +25.00      Unquoted    –        –

Jun             1522.50    +25.00      Unquoted    –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep     1340.00    +12.50      Unquoted    –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec     1322.50    +10.00      Unquoted    –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB,     Malaysian ports

                 Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Apr             1650.00      00.00      Unquoted   –        –

May             1585.00     +25.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jun             1525.00     +25.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep     1342.50     +12.50      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec     1325.00     +10.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB,  Malaysian ports

                 Offer      Change       Bid       Change   Traded

Apr              1605.00    +10.00       Unquoted  –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

                 Offer       Change       Bid       Change   Traded

Apr              1455.00     +05.00       Unquoted  –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                 Offer       Change        Bid        Change   Traded

Apr              6450.00     +50.00        Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                 Offer      Change         Bid        Change   Traded

Apr              543.00     -05.00         Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.218)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322