Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Grains Report 04/04/2022
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets traded lower last week as the war between Ukraine and Russia continued. Trends are sideways to down on the daily charts and down on the weekly charts for the Winter Wheat markets and sideways for the Minneapolis market for Spring Wheat due to less than expected planted area projections from farmers. Russia announced it was pulling back from Kiev and other cities in Ukraine but has failed to do so. Russia instead appears to be deploying its army near the major cities but in new locations. Ukraine has said it is willing to offer some concessions to Russia in return for peace, but what Russia will accept is still not known. Ports are closed in Ukraine and Russian shippers and exporters are not offering in part due to sanctions but mostly due to the war and the chance to lose ships. Ukraine can rail the exports to the EU for shipment but the amount that can be moved is very limited. The USDA prospective plantings report was considered bullish for Spring Wheat with farmers indicating they would plant on just 11.2 million acres, and the stocks report was mildly bullish to Wheat with stocks at 1.025 billion bushels. The weekly export sales report weas poor.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 963 May. Support is at 977, 981, and 945 May, with resistance at 1042, 1075, and 1102 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1006, 993, and 981 May, with resistance at 1059, 1089, and 1106 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1027, 1020, and 1016 May, and resistance is at 1116, 1122, and 1138 May.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 29, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 471,606
: Positions :
: 44,034 87,226 140,363 52,611 171,187 199,966 33,756 436,973 432,533: 34,633 39,073
: Changes from: March 22, 2022 (Change in open interest: -47,012) :
: -1,580 358 -27,290 -5,144 -7,251 -11,921 -13,094 -45,934 -47,276: -1,078 264
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.3 18.5 29.8 11.2 36.3 42.4 7.2 92.7 91.7: 7.3 8.3
: Total Traders: 338 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 83 72 113 78 118 51 20 273 270:
——————————————————————————————————————-
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 29, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 204,327
: Positions :
: 31,566 15,780 44,023 33,792 113,099 75,118 11,764 184,499 184,667: 19,827 19,660
: Changes from: March 22, 2022 (Change in open interest: -4,581) :
: -420 82 530 -737 -2,125 -2,570 -927 -3,197 -2,440: -1,383 -2,140
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.4 7.7 21.5 16.5 55.4 36.8 5.8 90.3 90.4: 9.7 9.6
: Total Traders: 222 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 50 38 57 56 80 35 15 171 165:
——————————————————————————————————————-
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 29, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 68,710 :
: Positions :
: 26,547 51,762 1,611 1,178 608 14,725 720 410 7,674 1,028 2,801 :
: Changes from: March 22, 2022 :
: 1,807 18 -194 -27 65 -76 141 13 -384 -110 166 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 38.6 75.3 2.3 1.7 0.9 21.4 1.0 0.6 11.2 1.5 4.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 103 :
: 52 44 4 . 4 17 . . 9 5 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-
RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower last week a poor weekly export sales report. New crop prices were fractionally higher on Friday on reduced planted area indications from farmers in the survey released by USDA. Farmers intend to plant on about 2.45 million acres this year, from above 2.5 million last year. There is a lot of concern about the high costs of raising Rice. Russia has said it is pulling its troops back from Ukrainian cites to eastern areas it already controls but as failed to do so and appears to be deploying troops around the cities again. Trends are sideways on the daily charts. The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere in lighter volumes. Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1581, 1561, and 1548 May and resistance is at 1628, 1644, and 1684 May.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 29, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 10,802 :
: Positions :
: 5,853 7,898 184 0 0 1,354 467 0 236 1,135 496 :
: Changes from: March 22, 2022 :
: 602 336 9 0 0 -115 0 0 -69 31 62 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 54.2 73.1 1.7 0.0 0.0 12.5 4.3 0.0 2.2 10.5 4.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 49 :
: 17 17 . 0 0 10 . 0 4 6 5 :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower but inside the recent trading range on the daily and weekly charts last week partly in response to the USDA reports. Some speculative long liquidation appeared to be getting done in the nearby months while new crop months held firm on the much reduced planted area ideas from farmers. USDA estimated intended planted area at just under 89.5 million acres, a huge shock to the trade and below the lowest trade guess. Farmers planted Corn on more than 93.3 million acres last year. The quarterly stocks report showed supplies were 7.85 billion bushels, below the average trade guess but a little above last year. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter and could be enough to keep Corn prices trending higher for now. Ukraine might not plant much if any Corn this Summer and already has trouble exporting it or Wheat. The ports remain closed and Ukraine can rail out to the EU in limited amounts. Russia is also a Corn exporter and no product is moving from either country at this time China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response. The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic. The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people can’t make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes.
Overnight News: China bought 1,084 million tons of US Corn for this and next year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 784, 804, and 819 May. Support is at 767, 727, and 714 May, and resistance is at 770, 784, and 792 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 712, 694, and 681 May, and resistance is at 747, 752, and 764 May.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 29, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,062,031
: Positions :
: 312,864 51,533 459,041 515,087 1,216,807 575,423 89,878 1,862,415 1,817,258: 199,616 244,773
: Changes from: March 22, 2022 (Change in open interest: -87,254) :
: -33,388 9,976 -39,701 -3,606 -44,978 -5,256 -16,048 -81,951 -90,751: -5,303 3,496
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.2 2.5 22.3 25.0 59.0 27.9 4.4 90.3 88.1: 9.7 11.9
: Total Traders: 855 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 206 92 187 370 444 54 25 701 688:
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower last week on what appeared to be mostly speculative long liquidation in response to the USDA reports and worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there. USDA showed higher than expected planting intentions at 90.95 million acres and higher than expected stocks levels at 1.93 billion bushels. The war in Ukraine dragged on and as supplies available to the export market from South America remain limited. Ukraine said it would propose that Russia keep the eastern areas it has already conquered, and that Ukraine would not join NATO Russia said it will move back to eastern Ukraine that it already controls but so far has kept its forces near the major cities. Both are major exporters of Sunoil and control about 80% of the market combined. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market. Shanghai has said it will remain open but asked office workers to work from home in a hybrid format. The world situation is still tightening as Brazil and Argentina are getting into the harvest of less Soybeans. Paraguay might import Soybeans this year from Argentina.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1540, 1526 and 1462 May. Support is at 1546, 1534, and 1526 May, and resistance is at 1604, 1616, and 1680 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 446.00, 431.00, and 427.00 May. Support is at 448.00, 442.00, and 436.00 May, and resistance is at 465.00 480.00, and 485.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 6530, 6510, and 6040 May. Support is at 6820, 6790, and 6650 May, with resistance at 7230, 7420, and 7520 May.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 29, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 982,306
: Positions :
: 140,566 47,057 238,929 279,401 556,229 261,347 48,445 920,242 890,660: 62,064 91,646
: Changes from: March 22, 2022 (Change in open interest: -34,020) :
: -16,948 1,616 -24,226 15,244 -10,688 -6,760 -2,413 -32,691 -35,711: -1,330 1,691
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.3 4.8 24.3 28.4 56.6 26.6 4.9 93.7 90.7: 6.3 9.3
: Total Traders: 633 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 185 91 177 215 276 54 21 514 510:
——————————————————————————————————————-
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 29, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 400,221
: Positions :
: 65,759 17,951 67,946 99,706 278,710 130,788 14,762 364,200 379,369: 36,021 20,852
: Changes from: March 22, 2022 (Change in open interest: -15,243) :
: -4,438 1,165 -2,602 -2,391 -12,813 -3,511 -1,660 -12,943 -15,910: -2,300 668
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.4 4.5 17.0 24.9 69.6 32.7 3.7 91.0 94.8: 9.0 5.2
: Total Traders: 265 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 79 34 61 83 88 39 16 227 176:
——————————————————————————————————————-
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 29, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 455,338
: Positions :
: 79,190 13,998 80,187 99,384 327,856 141,039 10,209 399,801 432,250: 55,537 23,088
: Changes from: March 22, 2022 (Change in open interest: -2,438) :
: -3,707 2,044 1,026 1,121 -4,855 -1,596 -1,088 -3,156 -2,873: 718 435
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.4 3.1 17.6 21.8 72.0 31.0 2.2 87.8 94.9: 12.2 5.1
: Total Traders: 272 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 77 36 69 88 100 40 13 238 191:
——————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on price action in outside markets and as China is closing down for Covid reasons again. It was higher today on what was called bargain hunting. A new Covid outbreak is reported there and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Demand in Malaysia could improve soon as Indonesia is expected to keep most Palm Oil at home. However, production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Indonesia is once again making moves to cut the availability of Palm Oil for export as it manages high internal prices. Canola was a little lower in response to the USDA reports and despite dry conditions in Canada It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight. Futures prices are still in a trading range.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 1115.00, 1106.00, and 1100.00 May, with resistance at 1156.00, 1160.00, and 1178.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5280 and 4330 June. Support is at 5460, 5370, and 5280 June, with resistance at 5820, 5950, and 6090 June.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 29, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 165,520 :
: Positions :
: 89,359 134,329 1,847 2,660 1,921 45,838 3,475 7,543 4,840 2,650 11,313 :
: Changes from: March 22, 2022 :
: 3,895 -311 -89 -449 -39 -2,504 1,071 818 -742 385 526 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 54.0 81.2 1.1 1.6 1.2 27.7 2.1 4.6 2.9 1.6 6.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 253 :
: 44 52 4 5 4 53 15 15 55 51 43 :
—————————————————————————————————————-
Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn
HRW
SRW
Soybeans
Soybean Meal
Soybean Oil
March
150 May
255 May
145 May
165 May
April
140 May
255 May
145 May
165 May
May
120 May
250 May
140 May
155 May
DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 1
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1120.40 -10.00 May 2022 dn 3.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 1203.90 70.00 May 2022 up 23.50
Basis: Vancouver 1193.40 60.00 May 2022 up 3.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 4
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1647.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
May 1582.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1522.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1340.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1322.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1650.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
May 1585.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1525.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1342.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1325.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1605.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1455.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 6450.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 543.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.218)
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322