About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON        

General Comments:  Cotton futures was lower on increased planting intentions reported by USDA and weaker than hoped for weekly export sales.  Farmers intend to plant 12.2 million acres of Cotton this year, up from about 11.2 million last year.  The news hurt new crop futures.  Crude Oil was lower after the US government announced it would open the oil reserve to help cure the high petroleum prices and the lower Crude prices spilled into Cotton.  Russia announced it was pulling back from Kiev and other cities in Ukraine in order to try to help conditions for peace talks in Turkey.  Ukraine has said it is willing to offer some concessions to Russia in return for peace, but what Russia will accept is still not known.  Russia will move back to eastern Ukraine that it already controls and could launch a new offensive in the near term if the talks fail.  Ukraine said it would propose that Russia keep the eastern areas it has already conquered, and that Ukraine would not join NATO in return for peace.  China has been buying even with the port closures and domestic difficulties.  Traders are worried about Chinese demand moving forward.  China has closed two ports for imports due to Covid and is also closing down a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation.  Shanghai has asked office workers to follow a hybrid model used here in the US and is closing financial markets.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  Texas will have isolated showers and above normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 132.98 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 144 bales, from 144 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with no objectives.  Support is at 13400, 13290, and 13040 May, with resistance of 14070, 14200 and 14320 May.

DJ USDA Prospective Plantings: U.S. Upland/All Cotton-Mar 31 

                     Cotton:  Area Planted by Type, State,

                        and United States, 2020-2022

====================================================================

      Type                           Area Planted

       and  ========================================================

      State            2020        2021        2022 1/    2022/2021

====================================================================

                      ========== 1,000 Acres ========     Percent

Upland

 U.S.              11,890.0    11,093.0    12,058.0         109

Amer-Pima

 U.S.                 202.0       126.5       176.0         139

All

U.S.              12,092.0    11,219.5    12,234.0         109

===================================================================

1/ Intended plantings in 2022 as indicated by reports from farmers.

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ was higher and trends are trying to turn up again on the daily charts.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.  Florida Citrus Mutual said FCOJ stocks are now 31% less than last year.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.   Brazil should get isolated showers and near normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 154.00 and 165.00 May.  Support is at 146.00, 144.00, and 141.00 May, with resistance at 154.00, 156.00, and 157.00 May.

COFFEE   

General Comments:  Both markets were higher with a stronger Brazilian Real but London caught in a trading range on the weekly charts on ideas of less demand from Ukraine, Russia, and China.  The lack of deliveries from Brazil and Indonesia are still supporting the futures market but the war is causing ideas of less Russian and Uranian demand and the return of Covid has the potential to really hurt Chinese demand as cities and ports have shut down there.  Good growing conditions for the next crop in Brazil are still around.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.080 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 198.40 ct/lb.  Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 228.00, 237.00, and 243.00 May.  Support is at 221.00, 217.00, and 213.00 May, and resistance is at 228.00, 231.00 and 236.00 May.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2210, 2260, and 2300 May.   Support is at 2130, 2110, and 2060 May, and resistance is at 2180, 2200, and 2220 May[JS1] .

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  Both markets were lower yesterday on weaker Crude Oil futures.  The US government has proposed to open the reserve fin an effort to lower petroleum prices here and this affected Sugar due to the potential for reduced ethanol demand from the lower prices.  Russia announced it was pulling back from Kiev and other cities in Ukraine but has failed to do so and instead seems to be deploying troops around the cities.  Ukraine has said it is willing to offer some concessions to Russia in return for peace, but what Russia will accept is still not known.  News reports indicate that little export activity is taking place from Ukraine or Russia with the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports basically closed.  Some of the oil giants have pulled operations out of Russia in response to the war, but others are still working there.   The Sugar trade could also be affected as both produce sugar beets.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get isolated showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1920, 1890, and 1850 May and resistance is at 1960, 1990, and 2000 May.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 526.00 and 472.00 May.  Support is at 525.00, 518.00, and 510.00 May and resistance is at 552.00, 564.00, and 570.00 May.

COCOA                                                                                   

General Comments:  New York and London closed mixed and little changed yesterday as the weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa.  Some showers are in the forecast for West Africa and have been for several weeks.  Chart trends are sideways to up in New York and are up in London despite improved crop conditions and in part despite demand fears as Europe is the leading per capita consumer of Chocolate and demand could drop if the war in Ukraine expands or even if it doesn’t.  Demand fears have eased as the rest of Europe is not harmed yet.  The weather is good in Southeast Asia.  The dry conditions in West Africa are now disappearing due to scattered showers in the region.  Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels, but Ivory Coast arrivals have been above year ago levels.  Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.

Overnight News:  Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.722 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to ujp with objectives of 2750 and 2770 May.  Support is at 2590, 2580, and 2540 May, with resistance at 2690, 2710, and 2740 May.  Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 1740, 1700, and 1670 May, with resistance at 1790, 1810, and 1820 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322