Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Softs Report 03/29/2022
COTTON
General Comments: Cotton futures surged to new contract highs again yesterday on ideas that good demand can continue despite ideas of Chinese import problems. China has been buying even with the port closures and domestic difficulties. The Russian invasion of Ukraine continued and shipments of Crude Oil and products from Russia are interrupted and in fact are banned now in much of the west. That means higher Crude Oil prices and higher polyester prices for the world. This market followed all of the other markets lower as the US Dollar rallied amid the potential for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine said it would propose that Russia keep the eastern areas it has already conquered, and that Ukraine would not join NATO in return for peace, but it is not known if the Russian would accept this. Ideas are that they will not accept. Traders are worried about Chinese demand moving forward. China has closed two ports for imports due to Covid and is also closing down a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. However, Shanghai said it would stay open and asked office workers to follow a hybrid model used here in the US. The US Dollar has been moving higher in the past week due to the war and the stock market has worked lower. It is too dry in west Texas and planting and initial growth could become difficult. Short term trends are up.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 136.50 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 144 bales, from 537 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with no objectives. Support is at 13400, 13290, and 13040 May, with resistance of 14200, 14320 and 14440 May.
FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower after coming close to final objectives for the upside last week. This market followed all of the other markets lower as the US Dollar rallied amid the potential for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine said it would propose that Russia keep the eastern areas it has already conquered, and that Ukraine would not join NATO in return for peace, but it is not known if the Russian would accept this. Ideas are that they will not accept. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 154.00 and 165.00 May. Support is at 148.00, 144.00, and 141.00 May, with resistance at 154.00, 156.00, and 157.00 May.
DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack for Week Ended Mar 12
Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
3/12/2022 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
3/12/2022 3/13/2021 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 175.43 258.75 -32.2%
Retail/Institutional 6.11 5.86 4.2%
Total 181.54 264.61 -31.4%
Pack
Bulk 0.78 3.83 -79.5%
Retail/Institutional 1.56 1.44 8.3%
Total Pack 2.34 5.27 -55.5%
Reprocessed -2.25 -3.54 -36.4%
Pack from Fruit 0.09 1.73 -94.8%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.05 -0.06 -9.9%
Imports – Foreign 8.68 5.28 64.6%
Domestic Receipts 0.03 0.44 -92.8%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.28 0.00 NA
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 0.00 NC
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.12 0.01 1183.2%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 183.03 264.71 -30.9%
Retail/Institutional 7.66 7.30 5.0%
Total 190.69 272.01 -29.9%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 4.50 3.48 29.3%
Exports 0.39 0.31 28.3%
Total (Bulk) 4.89 3.79 29.2%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.49 1.21 23.0%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.49 1.21 23.0%
Total Movement 6.39 5.00 27.7%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 178.14 260.92 -31.7%
Retail/Institutional 6.17 6.08 1.4%
Ending Inventory 184.31 267.01 -31.0%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
12-Mar-22 13-Mar-21 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 226.65 254.09 -10.8%
Retail/Institutional 6.08 5.56 9.4%
Total 232.73 259.65 -10.4%
Pack
Bulk 44.39 44.02 0.8%
Retail/Institutional 27.32 23.53 16.1%
Total Pack 71.70 67.55 6.2%
Reprocessed -55.18 -46.95 17.5%
Pack from Fruit 16.53 20.60 -19.8%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.86 -0.57 51.3%
Imports – Foreign 65.33 106.00 -38.4%
Domestic Receipts 2.74 4.60 -40.6%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 3.99 0.15 2596.5%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.02 4.85 -99.6%
Reprocessed FCTJ 2.31 1.16 98.4%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 289.38 367.36 -21.2%
Retail/Institutional 33.40 29.09 14.8%
Total 322.78 396.44 -18.6%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 101.43 97.45 4.1%
Domestic 9.81 8.98 9.3%
Exports 111.24 106.43 4.5%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 27.23 23.00 18.4%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 27.23 23.00 18.4%
Total Movement 138.47 129.44 7.0%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 178.14 260.92 -31.7%
Retail/Institutional 6.17 6.08 1.4%
Ending Inventory 184.31 267.01 -31.0%
COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were lower with London caught in a trading range on the weekly charts as the US Dollar rallied but the Brazilian Real moved lower. The lack of deliveries from Brazil and Indonesia are still supporting the futures market. Good growing conditions for the next crop in Brazil are still around. The logistical and production problems in Brazil from the last year are still around. The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year. Containers are increasingly available in Brazil to ship the Coffee.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.122 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 190.14 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 206.00 and 191.00 May. Support is at 210.00, 207.00, and 203.00 May, and resistance is at 223.00, 228.00 and 231.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2110, 2060, and 2040 May, and resistance is at 2160, 2180, and 2200 May.
SUGAR
General Comments: New York was mostly higher yesterday with only NY May a little lower and London closed mixed. The markets were influenced once again by the price action in Crude Oil futures and the Dollar Index futures. Ethanol prices are currently lower than gasoline prices in Brazil. Crude Oil was lower on reports that Ukraine would offer Russia a peace deal involving Ukraine neutrality in regard to NATO membership and Russia keeping the eastern regions it has previously taken. It is not known if Russia will accept, but ideas are that they will not. Current peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are yielding at most slow progress and that kept Crude Oil supported overall. President Biden indicated a couple of weeks ago that Russian energy imports would be curtailed due to the war and now the EU is talking about banning Russian imports. New sanctions on Russia have been imposed at the NATO meetings being held this week. News reports indicate that little export activity is taking place from Ukraine or Russia with the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports basically closed. Some of the oil giants have pulled operations out of Russia in response to the war, but others are still working there. Traders expect bigger offers from India if the price stays strong.
Overnight News: Brazil will get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2000 May. Support is at 1930, 1900, and 1850 May and resistance is at 1990, 2020, and 2030 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 563.00 May. Support is at 550.00, 540.00, and 537.00 May and resistance is at 564.00, 570.00, and 576.00 May.
COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday as the weather is improving for harvest activities in West Africa. Some showers are in the forecast for West Africa and have been for a couple of weeks. Chart trends are still up in New York and are up in London despite improved crop conditions and in part despite demand fears as Europe is the leading per capita consumer of Chocolate and demand could drop if the war in Ukraine expands or even if it doesn’t. Demand fears have eased as the rest of Europe is not harmed yet. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. The dry conditions in West Africa are now disappearing due to scattered showers in the region. Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels, but Ivory Coast arrivals have been above year ago levels. Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.689 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2540, 2490, and 2440 May, with resistance at 2650, 2670, and 2710 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1700, 1670, and 1650 May, with resistance at 1760, 1780, and 1810 May.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322