About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Mar 28

WA_GR101

Washington, DC    Mon Mar 28, 2022   USDA Market News

COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.

INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED

THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.  NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,

COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE

GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

                  REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAR 24, 2022

                            — METRIC TONS —

—————————————————————————

                                                   CURRENT     PREVIOUS

             ———– WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR

  GRAIN      03/24/2022  03/17/2022  03/25/2021    TO DATE     TO DATE

BARLEY              0           0       1,497       10,010       32,520

CORN        1,606,535   1,496,798   1,789,432   29,030,547   34,006,675

FLAXSEED            0           0           0          324          509

MIXED               0           0           0            0            0

OATS                0           0         399          400        4,815

RYE                 0           0           0            0            0

SORGHUM       342,326     335,599     244,739    4,165,410    4,449,284

SOYBEANS      628,819     553,582     450,807   43,428,819   54,269,171

SUNFLOWER           0           0           0          532            0

WHEAT         341,191     333,970     307,167   16,894,292   20,347,102

Total       2,918,871   2,719,949   2,794,041   93,530,334  113,110,076

————————————————————————–

CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED;  SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

DJ Survey: Mar. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates

  NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for March 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Thursday.

U.S. Stockpiles on March 1, 2022 (million bushels)

                                                  USDA       USDA

                           Average     Range    Mar. 2021 Dec. 2021

Corn                        7,885   7,630-8,087   7,696     11,647

Soybeans                    1,893   1,602-1,965   1,562      3,149

Wheat                       1,064     998-1,325   1,311      1,390

                            Corn     Soybeans     Wheat

AgriSompo North America     7,630      1,832      1,302

Allendale                   7,983      1,824      1,023

DC Analysis                 7,865      1,948      1,019

Doane                       7,873      1,929      1,016

EDFMan Capital              7,925      1,950      1,040

Farm Futures                8,003      1,956      1,013

Futures Intl                7,905      1,910      1,021

Grain Cycles                7,910      1,950      1,070

Linn Group                  7,780      1,875       998

Sid Love Consulting         8,057      1,930      1,055

Midland Research            7,895      1,920      1,032

Northstar                   7,860      1,960      1,015

RMC                         7,725      1,602      1,128

RJ O’Brien                  7,852      1,948      1,015

StoneX                      7,754      1,945      1,007

US Commodities              7,854      1,965      1,325

Vantage RM                  7,975      1,806      1,028

Western Milling             7,885      1,940      1,022

Zaner Ag Hedge              8,087      1,769      1,094

DJ Survey: 2022 U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting

  NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates, in millions of acres, for U.S. grain and soybean planting, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Thursday.

U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting (million acres)

                           Average     Range    USDA 2021

Corn                       91.995    89.7-93.5   93.357

Soybeans                   88.809    86.0-92.2   87.195

All Wheat                  47.763    46.2-48.9   46.703

Winter Wheat               34.367    33.7-35.6   33.648

Spring Wheat               11.727    10.5-12.5   11.420

Durum Wheat                 1.721     1.5-1.8     1.635

                                                      Winter   Spring   Durum

                            Corn   Soybeans   Wheat    Wheat    Wheat   Wheat

AgriSompo North America     92.0     88.0      48.0    34.1     12.3     1.6

Agrisource                  91.1     89.2      48.8

Allendale                   92.4     89.3      48.9    34.6     12.5     1.8

DC Analysis                 92.2     88.3      48.4    34.4     12.2     1.8

Doane                       91.9     87.8      48.5    34.4     12.4     1.8

EDFMan Capital              92.0     86.0      47.0    34.4     10.8     1.8

Farm Futures                90.4     92.2      47.6    34.4     11.7     1.5

Futures Intl                92.6     88.2      48.2    34.4     12.1     1.8

Grain Cycles                92.5     90.0      47.9    34.2     11.9     1.8

Linn Group                  92.0     88.5      47.1    34.0     11.4     1.7

Sid Love Consulting         91.6     88.7      47.9    34.4     11.7     1.8

Midland Research            92.7     88.4      46.2    34.4     12.1     1.8

Midwest Market Solutions    93.2     89.1      46.7    34.6     10.5     1.6

Northstar                   91.6     87.3      48.5    34.4     12.2     1.8

RMC                         89.7     89.2      47.3    33.7     11.8     1.8

RJ O’Brien                  92.0     89.0      47.3    34.6     11.0     1.7

StoneX                      91.1     89.9      47.0    34.0     11.3     1.7

US Commodities              92.7     88.8      47.5    34.0     12.0     1.7

Vantage RM                  93.5     89.0      48.5    35.6     11.3     1.5

Western Milling             92.0     89.0      48.0    34.4     11.8     1.8

Zaner Ag Hedge              92.8     89.1      47.7

WHEAT

General Comments:   Wheat markets were lower yesterday as the war between Ukraine and Russia continued and looked to last a long time.  The weekly export inspections report showed slow business for the US once again, but Egypt announced it was talking to the US and other countries about filling the void in the marketplace left by the lack of Ukrainian or Russian offers.  France has agreed to help supply Egypt with the lost Wheat.  This market followed all of the other markets lower as the US Dollar rallied amid the potential for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.  Ukraine said it would propose that Russia keep the eastern areas it has already conquered, and that Ukraine would not join NATO in return for peace, but it is not known if the Russian would accept this.  Ideas are that they will not accept.    Trends are sideways on the daily charts.  Ports are closed in Ukraine and Russian shippers and exporters are not offering in part due to sanctions but mostly due to the war and the chance to lose ships.  Ukraine can rail the exports to the EU for shipment but the amount that can be moved is very limited.  The US is revoking Most Favored Nation trading status for Russia.  Higher prices seem likely down the road.  Ukrainians have no interest in living under Russian occupation so the war could be deadly and very costly to both sides.  Russia and Ukraine are both major Wheat exporters. 

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average near normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 1032, 995, and 961 May, with resistance at 1102, 1156, and 1164 May.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 1036, 1006, and 981 May, with resistance at 1106, 1156, and 1164 May.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 1059, 1030, and 1027 May, and resistance is at 1109, 1123, and 1138 May.

RICE:                                              

General Comments:  Rice was lower yesterday along with the other grain markets as the potential for reduced fighting or an end to hostilities became the focus of the market, This market followed all of the other markets lower as the US Dollar rallied amid the potential for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.  Ukraine said it would propose that Russia keep the eastern areas it has already conquered, and that Ukraine would not join NATO in return for peace, but it is not known if the Russian would accept this.  Ideas are that they will not accept.  There is a lot of concern about the high costs of raising Rice and that there could be less acres planted in the US for this reason.  Trends are up on the daily charts.  The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere in good volumes.  Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal.  Export demand was stronger again this week, and has been stronger overall, especially for Rough Rice.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1583, 1574, and 1548 May and resistance is at 1628, 1644, and 1684 May.

CORN AND OATS:

General Comments:  Corn closed lower yesterday and trends remain sideways on the daily charts as Russia remains bogged down in its war with Ukraine.  This market followed all of the other markets lower as the US Dollar rallied amid the potential for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.  Ukraine said it would propose that Russia keep the eastern areas it has already conquered, and that Ukraine would not join NATO in return for peace, but it is not known if the Russian would accept this.  Ideas are that they will not accept.  The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter and could be enough to keep Corn prices trending higher for now.  Ukraine might not plant much if any Corn this Summer and already has trouble exporting it or Wheat.  The ports remain closed and Ukraine can rail out to the EU in limited amounts.  Russia is also a Corn exporter and no product is moving from either country at this time  Crop losses in South America are noted.  The summer Corn crop in South America has been hurt by drought, but some rains are reported now.  Corn has been slow to react because the bigger crop is the Winter crop in Brazil and that is expected to be large.  China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response.  The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic.  The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people can’t make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes.

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 741, 727, and 716 May, and resistance is at 770, 784, and 792 May.  Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 762 and 804 May.  Support is at 729, 720, and 694 May, and resistance is at 752, 764, and 776 May.

SOYBEANS

General Comments:  Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday as the war in Ukraine dragged on and as supplies available to the export market from South America remain limited.  This market followed all of the other markets lower as the US Dollar rallied amid the potential for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.  Ukraine said it would propose that Russia keep the eastern areas it has already conquered, and that Ukraine would not join NATO in return for peace, but it is not known if the Russian would accept this.  Ideas are that they will not accept.  China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America.  They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs.  Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market.  Shanghai has said it will remain open but asked office workers to work from home in a hybrid format.  The Ukraine-Russia war has supported Soybeans and world vegetable oils as Russia and Ukraine both export Sunflower Oil.  The two countries account for about 80% of all world Sun oil exports.  Russia is also a major exporter of Crude Oil.  The US is now curbing Russian exports as part of the sanctions but nothing is moving from either country as the companies effectively embargo themselves from doing business in either country.  The world situation is still tightening as Brazil and Argentina are getting into the harvest of less Soybeans.  Paraguay might import Soybeans this year from Argentina.  Higher Soybeans prices are still possible due to the war and the overall supply and demand situation. 

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1647, 1638, and 1634 May, and resistance is at 1698, 1739, and 1768 May.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.   Support is at 478.00, 472.00, and 468.00 May, and resistance is at 491.00 495.00, and 502.00 May.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up.  Support is at 7200, 7000, and 6820 May, with resistance at 7520, 7660, and 7680 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments Palm Oil was lower again today on price action in outside markets and as China is closing down for Covid reasons again.  The potential for a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia was also a bearish factor.  A Russian general said that his forces would retrench away from Kiev to the east and this was taken as a move towards peace and also facing the reality that the Russians are losing the war so far.  It is just as possible that Russia will soon launch a new and better offensive against the Ukrainians.  Demand in Malaysia could improve soon as Indonesia is expected to keep most Palm Oil at home.  However, production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production.  Indonesia is once again making moves to cut the availability of Palm Oil for export as it manages high internal prices.  Canola was higher on ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine due to the war   The Canadian Dollar moves were more important. The market is worried about South American production as well.  Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.  Prices are still in the latest trading range but at the top end of the range and appear poised to work higher.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 1185, 1194, and 1224 May.  Support is at 1120.00, 1100.00, and 1085.00 May, with resistance at 1160.00, 1178.00, and 1188.00 May.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 5600, 5530, and 5460 June, with resistance at 61090, 6170, and 6340 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry.  Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn

HRW

SRW

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

March

200 Mar

250 May

155 May

195 May

April

195 May

250 May

155 May

195 May

May

175 May

250 May

150 May

195 May

 

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 28

     WINNIPEG – The following are the closing cash canola prices from

ICE Futures for March 28, 2022.

     Source:  ICE Futures

CANOLA

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

                 Spot Price    Basis  Contract     Change

*Par Region        1,134.40    -5.00    May 22   dn  9.20

Basis: Thunder Bay 1,193.20    50.00    May 22   up  3.80

Basis: Vancouver   1,203.20    60.00    May 22   up  3.80

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (Phil Franz-Warkentin,

news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 29

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

                Offer      Change      Bid         Change   Traded

Apr             1717.50    +10.00      Unquoted    –        –

May             1627.50    +20.00      Unquoted    –        –

Jun             1577.50    +20.00      Unquoted    –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep     1422.50    +05.00      Unquoted    –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec     1392.50    +05.00      Unquoted    –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB,     Malaysian ports

                 Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Apr             1720.00     +10.00      Unquoted   –        –

May             1630.00     +20.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jun             1580.00     +20.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep     1425.00     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec     1395.00     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB,  Malaysian ports

                 Offer      Change       Bid       Change   Traded

Apr              1650.00    +10.00        Unquoted  –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

                 Offer       Change       Bid       Change   Traded

Apr              1515.00     +05.00       Unquoted  –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                 Offer       Change        Bid        Change   Traded

Apr              6750.00     +70.00        Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                 Offer      Change         Bid        Change   Traded

Apr              562.00     +02.00         Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.212)

 

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 29

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 98,070 lots, or 6.01 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

May-22     6,150     6,176     6,118     6,145     6,210     6,146       -64     8,475    15,667

Jul-22     6,158     6,183     6,121     6,153     6,218     6,154       -64    76,557   128,972

Sep-22     6,058     6,068     6,010     6,035     6,088     6,033       -55     3,454     6,754

Nov-22     5,853     5,904     5,853     5,887     5,927     5,886       -41     9,153    21,296

Jan-23     5,828     5,868     5,823     5,841     5,885     5,845       -40       409     1,626

Mar-23     5,820     5,833     5,805     5,824     5,869     5,818       -51        22       121

Corn

Turnover: 580,063 lots, or 16.81 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

May-22     2,857     2,870     2,849     2,855     2,884     2,860       -24   302,996   815,852

Jul-22     2,915     2,922     2,900     2,907     2,939     2,911       -28    62,248   288,344

Sep-22     2,940     2,958     2,936     2,943     2,970     2,947       -23   184,296   673,537

Nov-22     2,948     2,948     2,924     2,933     2,944     2,936        -8    10,957    58,874

Jan-23     2,955     3,158     2,939     2,945     2,952     2,959         7    11,775    49,033

Mar-23     2,975     2,982     2,959     2,967     2,971     2,969        -2     7,791    14,472

Soymeal

Turnover: 2,220,124 lots, or 92.36 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.         Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                    Interest

May-22     4,240     4,256     4,182     4,187     4,313     4,220       -93   1,022,058     876,420

Jul-22     4,227     4,242     4,163     4,170     4,295     4,203       -92     130,519     277,731

Aug-22     4,244     4,244     4,137     4,158     4,283     4,187       -96      35,068     173,482

Sep-22     4,150     4,156     4,069     4,090     4,196     4,116       -80     925,750   1,194,231

Nov-22     4,021     4,033     3,961     3,972     4,055     4,001       -54      30,553      90,175

Dec-22     3,920     3,953     3,880     3,886     3,975     3,918       -57      19,091      26,951

Jan-23     3,860     3,867     3,789     3,804     3,886     3,831       -55      56,161     115,559

Mar-23     3,717     3,717     3,650     3,664     3,743     3,684       -59         924       2,478

Palm Oil

Turnover: 780,719 lots, or 85.11 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Apr-22    12,672    12,750    12,530    12,710    12,660    12,650       -10       169     1,451

May-22    11,580    11,722    11,422    11,666    11,614    11,560       -54   408,564   274,219

Jun-22    11,102    11,250    10,994    11,212    11,200    11,134       -66    19,788    74,917

Jul-22    10,738    10,822    10,574    10,766    10,794    10,714       -80    11,481    62,160

Aug-22    10,352    10,458    10,220    10,402    10,484    10,360      -124     6,361    38,552

Sep-22    10,100    10,212     9,958    10,154    10,254    10,102      -152   323,700   183,627

Oct-22     9,962    10,028     9,776     9,976    10,066     9,920      -146     9,206    10,959

Nov-22     9,828     9,856     9,648     9,856     9,918     9,804      -114        37       286

Dec-22     9,718     9,874     9,578     9,722     9,812     9,692      -120        11       120

Jan-23     9,660     9,720     9,512     9,680     9,722     9,620      -102     1,352     6,153

Feb-23     9,588     9,588     9,472     9,490     9,586     9,506       -80         8       671

Mar-23     9,532     9,548     9,438     9,548     9,556     9,476       -80        42        56

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 576,089 lots, or 58.28 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

May-22    10,250    10,328    10,190    10,274    10,338    10,254       -84   113,080   200,543

Jul-22    10,204    10,294    10,142    10,246    10,298    10,212       -86    23,632   121,051

Aug-22    10,226    10,256    10,094    10,208    10,248    10,162       -86     4,212    72,322

Sep-22    10,096    10,174    10,002    10,122    10,182    10,080      -102   415,390   323,165

Nov-22     9,958    10,042     9,888    10,004    10,058     9,954      -104    11,376    24,169

Dec-22     9,902    10,012     9,840     9,952     9,984     9,902       -82     6,383     8,520

Jan-23     9,842     9,924     9,788     9,884     9,928     9,848       -80     2,006     5,771

Mar-23     9,650     9,722     9,650     9,710     9,782     9,678      -104        10       318

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322