About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON       

General Comments:  Cotton futures surged to new contract highs last week on ideas that good demand can continue despite ideas of Chinese import problems.  China has been buying even with the port closures and domestic difficulties.  The Russian invasion of Ukraine continued and shipments of Crude Oil and products from Russia are interrupted and in fact are banned now in much of the west.  That means higher Crude Oil prices and higher polyester prices for the world.  Traders are worried about Chinese demand moving forward.  China has closed two ports for imports due to Covid and is also closing down a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation.  However, Shanghai said it would stay open and asked office workers to follow a hybrid model used here in the US.  The US Dollar has been moving higher in the past week due to the war and the stock market has worked lower.  It is too dry in west Texas and planting and initial growth could become difficult.  Short term trends are up.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures in the delta and near to below normal temperatures in the Southeast..  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 133.33 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 537 bales, from 537 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 138.00 May.  Support is at 13290, 13040, and 12710 May, with resistance of 13600, 13720 and 13840 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 22, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #033661                                                              Open Interest is   294,903

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   74,219    10,323    58,810    52,845   206,850    87,081    10,237   272,955   286,221:   21,948     8,683

    : Changes from: March 15, 2022             (Change in open interest:      23,493)         :

    :    4,647        85    13,987       415     8,860       667       179    19,716    23,111:    3,777       382

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     25.2       3.5      19.9      17.9      70.1      29.5       3.5      92.6      97.1:      7.4       2.9

    : Total Traders:   268          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      126        29        77        51        59        49        20       248       165:

——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was higher last week and posted a new high close for the move as the rally continued.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.   Brazil should get isolated showers and near normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 154.00 and 165.00 May.  Support is at 148.00, 144.00, and 141.00 May, with resistance at 154.00, 156.00, and 157.00 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 22, 2022

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               :

CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is    14,356                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    2,192    11,449     3,172         0         0     2,761        90        41     1,549       163     1,584 :

: Changes from:     March 15, 2022                                                                             :

:      180       290       -93         0         0       476        65         8        15         7        50 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     15.3      79.8      22.1       0.0       0.0      19.2       0.6       0.3      10.8       1.1      11.0 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    68                     :

:       18        13         7         0         0        17         .         .        18         4         6 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE 

General Comments New York and London were lower with London caught in a trading range on the weekly charts as the US Dollar and Brazilian Real both rallied and as a lack of deliveries from Brazil and Indonesia are still supporting the futures market.  Good growing conditions for the next crop in Brazil are still noted.  The logistical and production problems in Brazil from the last year are still around.  The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year.  Containers are increasingly available in Brazil to ship the Coffee.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 1.143 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 194.80 ct/lb.  Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered sowers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 219.00, 210.00, and 207.00 May, and resistance is at 223.00, 228.00 and 231.00 May.  Trends in London are mixed.   Support is at 2110, 2060, and 2040 May, and resistance is at 2160, 2180, and 2200 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 22, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #083731                                                              Open Interest is   277,212

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   28,474     9,812    75,584   106,083   168,393    56,221    16,745   266,361   270,534:   10,851     6,678

    : Changes from: March 15, 2022             (Change in open interest:      -2,218)         :

    :   -4,210    -2,337     1,810     1,454      -810    -1,105      -147    -2,053    -1,484:     -165      -734

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     10.3       3.5      27.3      38.3      60.7      20.3       6.0      96.1      97.6:      3.9       2.4

    : Total Traders:   381          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      117        62       114       129       131        45        25       342       290:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 03/22/2022

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long      Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  108,882       61,403        77,094        2,896     4,564         1,658

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          56.4%         70.8%         2.7%      4.2%          1.5%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   127            44            40           10         6            10

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                      Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

  21,799         2,375         1,037     4,348       10,922           9,939

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  20.0%          2.2%          1.0%      4.0%        10.0%            9.1%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    31            7             9         10           11              12

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  5,802        1,293

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  5.3%         1.2%

SUGAR               

General Comments:  New York and London were higher last week as these markets were influenced once again by the price action in Crude Oil futures.  Ethanol prices are currently lower than gasoline prices in Brazil.  Crude Oil rallied.  Current peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are yielding at most slow progress and that kept Crude Oil supported overall.  President Biden indicated a couple of weeks ago that Russian energy imports would be curtailed due to the war and now the EU is talking about banning Russian imports.  New sanctions on Russia have been imposed at the NATO meetings being held this week.  News reports indicate that little export activity is taking place from Ukraine or Russia with the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports basically closed.  Some of the oil giants have pulled operations out of Russia in response to the war, but others are still working there.  Traders expect bigger offers from India if the price stays strong.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get isolated showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2000 May.  Support is at 1930, 1900, and 1850 May and resistance is at 1990, 2020, and 2030 May.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 563.00 May.  Support is at 550.00, 540.00, and 537.00 May and resistance is at 560.00, 572.00, and 578.00 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 22, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #080732                                                              Open Interest is   958,304

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :  108,119    51,438   171,747   289,472   620,968   297,053    60,459   866,392   904,612:   91,912    53,692

    : Changes from: March 15, 2022             (Change in open interest:       6,767)         :

    :    1,829     1,871     2,712     1,668     6,022      -464     1,926     5,745    12,530:    1,022    -5,764

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     11.3       5.4      17.9      30.2      64.8      31.0       6.3      90.4      94.4:      9.6       5.6

    : Total Traders:   228          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       68        32        72        71        69        41        21       208       171:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 03/22/2022

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  70,415        26,790        58,065        10,972     3,124         2,283

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          38.0%         82.5%         15.6%      4.4%          3.2%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   103            32            37            8          3            5

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                      Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

  19,818          935          2,118     1,497        742             516

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  28.1%          1.3%          3.0%      2.1%         1.1%            0.7%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    35            2             13        4            5               5

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  6,421        2,632

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  9.1%         3.7%

COCOA                                                                                 

General Comments New York and London closed a little higher last week but well off the highs of the week as what appeared to be speculative long liquidation hit the pits late in the week as the weather is improving in West Africa.  Some showers are in the forecast for West Africa and have been for a couple of weeks.  Chart trends are still up in New York and are up in London despite improved crop conditions and in part despite demand fears as Europe is the leading per capita consumer of Chocolate and demand could drop if the war in Ukraine expands or even if it doesn’t.  Demand fears have eased as the rest of Europe is not harmed yet.  The weather is good in Southeast Asia.  The dry conditions in West Africa are now disappearing due to scattered showers in the region.  Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.

Overnight News:  Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.687 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2550, 2490, and 2440 May, with resistance at 2650, 2670, and 2710 May.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1700, 1670, and 1650 May, with resistance at 1740, 1760, and 1780 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 22, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #073732                                                              Open Interest is   299,227

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   41,058    35,000    71,657   109,106   156,139    59,112    28,002   280,933   290,797:   18,294     8,430

    : Changes from: March 15, 2022             (Change in open interest:       3,060)         :

    :    4,043     1,883     3,331    -3,081    -2,960    -2,268       409     2,025     2,663:    1,036       397

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     13.7      11.7      23.9      36.5      52.2      19.8       9.4      93.9      97.2:      6.1       2.8

    : Total Traders:   216          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       58        62        67        52        39        30        23       183       157:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 03/22/2022

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  299,497       172,088       181,751       27,314     38,152       22,164

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          57.5%         60.7%         9.1%       12.7%         7.4%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   127            48            39           12          7            13

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                       Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long         Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

  27,402         15,341       11,979     11,566        463            26,266

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

   9.1%          5.1%          4.0%      3.9%          0.2%            8.8%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    19            19            14        15            2               12

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  718          3,381

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  0.2%         1.1%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322