Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Grains Report 03/28/2022
DJ Summary for March USDA Monthly Cattle on Feed Data
Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly cattle-on-feed report, released at 3:00 p.m. ET Friday, and analysts’ estimates as compiled by the Wall Street Journal. In million head.
Numbers USDA’s Average Range
2022 2021 estimated of analysts’ of analysts’
% of prev yr estimates estimates
On-feed Mar 1 12.163M 12.000M 101 101.1 100.8- 101.5
Placed in Feb 1.848M 1.691M 109 106.5 104.5- 109.8
Marketed in Feb 1.825M 1.739M 105 104.3 103.3- 104.5
Note: USDA rounds its estimates to the nearest whole number.
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher last week as the war between Ukraine and Russia continued and looked to last a long time. The weekly export sales report showed slow business for the US once again, but Egypt announced it was talking to the US and other countries about filling the void in the marketplace left by the lack of Ukrainian or Russian offers. Trends are sideways on the daily charts. Ports are closed in Ukraine and Russian shippers and exporters are not offering in part due to sanctions but mostly due to the war and the chance to lose ships. Ukraine can rail the exports to the EU for shipment but the amount that can be moved is very limited. The US is revoking Most Favored Nation trading status for Russia. Higher prices seem likely down the road. Ukrainians have no interest in living under Russian occupation so the war could be deadly and very costly to both sides. Russia and Ukraine are both major Wheat exporters.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 1065, 1056, and 1032 May, with resistance at 1169, 1207, and 1285 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 1074, 1035, and 1006 May, with resistance at 1156, 1164, and 1200 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1071, 1059, and 1050 May, and resistance is at 1123, 1138, and 1153 May.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 22, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 518,617
: Positions :
: 45,613 86,868 167,653 57,754 178,438 211,887 46,850 482,907 479,809: 35,711 38,809
: Changes from: March 15, 2022 (Change in open interest: 5,021) :
: 1,505 5,287 1,993 -1,159 -1,988 886 1,298 3,226 6,590: 1,795 -1,569
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.8 16.7 32.3 11.1 34.4 40.9 9.0 93.1 92.5: 6.9 7.5
: Total Traders: 345 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 88 73 112 83 122 52 23 282 278:
——————————————————————————————————————-
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 22, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 208,907
: Positions :
: 31,986 15,697 43,493 34,529 115,224 77,688 12,692 187,697 187,107: 21,211 21,800
: Changes from: March 15, 2022 (Change in open interest: -785) :
: 1,040 309 1,574 -2,259 -2,765 -169 148 187 -734: -972 -51
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.3 7.5 20.8 16.5 55.2 37.2 6.1 89.8 89.6: 10.2 10.4
: Total Traders: 219 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 51 32 54 56 82 37 16 169 162:
——————————————————————————————————————-
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 22, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 68,469 :
: Positions :
: 24,740 51,744 1,806 1,204 543 14,801 579 397 8,058 1,138 2,635 :
: Changes from: March 15, 2022 :
: 268 -71 -27 152 0 -191 -26 -127 -241 414 439 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 36.1 75.6 2.6 1.8 0.8 21.6 0.8 0.6 11.8 1.7 3.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 102 :
: 52 43 4 . 4 17 . . 10 5 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-
RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher last week and closed strong. There is a lot of concern about the high costs of raising Rice and that there could be less acres planted in the US for this reason. Trends are up on the daily charts. The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere in good volumes. Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal. Export demand was stronger again this week, and has been stronger overall, especially for Rough Rice.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1655 and 1712 May. Support is at 1605, 1583, and 1571 May and resistance is at 1644, 1684, and 1700 May.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 22, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 10,252 :
: Positions :
: 5,251 7,562 175 0 0 1,469 467 0 305 1,104 435 :
: Changes from: March 15, 2022 :
: 28 -149 5 0 0 -136 0 0 -3 46 -37 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 51.2 73.8 1.7 0.0 0.0 14.3 4.6 0.0 3.0 10.8 4.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 47 :
: 15 16 . 0 0 10 . 0 4 6 5 :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher last week and trends are sideways on the daily charts as Russia remains bogged down in its war with Ukraine. There was little new to send prices higher but the war and ideas of good demand helped keep prices supported. The export sales report showed demand just below a million tons in the weekly report released yesterday and this is down from recent weeks. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter and could be enough to keep Corn prices trending higher for now. Ukraine might not plant much if any Corn this Summer and already has trouble exporting it or Wheat. The ports remain closed and Ukraine can rail out to the EU in limited amounts. Russia is also a Corn exporter and no product is moving from either country at this time Crop losses in South America are noted. The summer Corn crop in South America has been hurt by drought, but some rains are reported now. Corn has been slow to react because the bigger crop is the Winter crop in Brazil and that is expected to be large. China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response. The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic. The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people can’t make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 127,920 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 743, 727, and 716 May, and resistance is at 770, 784, and 792 May. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 762 and 804 May. Support is at 720, 694, and 681 May, and resistance is at 746, 752, and 764 May.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 22, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,149,285
: Positions :
: 346,252 41,557 498,742 518,693 1,261,785 580,679 105,925 1,944,366 1,908,009: 204,919 241,277
: Changes from: March 15, 2022 (Change in open interest: 66,274) :
: 6,520 -2,131 34,192 7,167 14,458 11,302 3,580 59,180 50,098: 7,094 16,176
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.1 1.9 23.2 24.1 58.7 27.0 4.9 90.5 88.8: 9.5 11.2
: Total Traders: 862 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 215 82 186 362 451 56 26 696 692:
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher last week on better demand for US Soybeans caused by dry weather in South America and as the war in Ukraine dragged on and as supplies available to the export market from South America remain limited. The weekly export sales report showed demand below 500,000 tons for Soybeans and negative net sales for Soybean Oil. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market. Shanghai has said it will remain open but asked office workers to work from home in a hybrid format. The Ukraine-Russia war has supported Soybeans and world vegetable oils as Russia and Ukraine both export Sunflower Oil. The two countries account for about 80% of all world Sun oil exports. Russia is also a major exporter of Crude Oil. The US is now curbing Russian exports as part of the sanctions but nothing is moving from either country as the companies effectively embargo themselves from doing business in either country. The world situation is still tightening as Brazil and Argentina are getting into the harvest of less Soybeans. Paraguay might import Soybeans this year from Argentina. Higher Soybeans prices are still possible due to the war and the overall supply and demand situation.
Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1724, 1742, and 1789 May. Support is at 1685, 1677, and 1647 May, and resistance is at 1739, 1768, and 1780 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 485.00, 479.00, and 472.00 May, and resistance is at 496.00 502.00, and 508.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 7300, 7200, and 7000 May, with resistance at 7680, 7730, and 7820 May.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 22, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,016,326
: Positions :
: 157,514 45,442 263,154 264,157 566,917 268,107 50,858 952,933 926,370: 63,394 89,956
: Changes from: March 15, 2022 (Change in open interest: 17,229) :
: 4,566 -1,462 3,127 478 14,946 7,039 -2,185 15,210 14,425: 2,018 2,804
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.5 4.5 25.9 26.0 55.8 26.4 5.0 93.8 91.1: 6.2 8.9
: Total Traders: 638 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 191 86 162 210 277 54 21 506 501:
——————————————————————————————————————-
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 22, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 415,464
: Positions :
: 70,198 16,786 70,549 102,097 291,523 134,300 16,422 377,143 395,280: 38,321 20,184
: Changes from: March 15, 2022 (Change in open interest: 1,447) :
: -4,249 1,600 4,742 -672 -4,005 -350 645 -529 2,982: 1,976 -1,536
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.9 4.0 17.0 24.6 70.2 32.3 4.0 90.8 95.1: 9.2 4.9
: Total Traders: 268 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 79 37 64 78 85 39 16 225 177:
——————————————————————————————————————-
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 22, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 457,776
: Positions :
: 82,898 11,955 79,161 98,263 332,711 142,636 11,297 402,957 435,123: 54,819 22,653
: Changes from: March 15, 2022 (Change in open interest: 10,279) :
: -262 2,131 7,930 2,202 29 1,022 0 10,891 10,089: -612 190
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.1 2.6 17.3 21.5 72.7 31.2 2.5 88.0 95.1: 12.0 4.9
: Total Traders: 277 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 89 30 68 87 99 40 13 240 188:
——————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week on what appeared to be speculative buying tied to ideas that prices had become relatively cheap. It was lower today on price action in outside markets and as China is closing down for Covid reasons again. Demand in Malaysia could improve soon as Indonesia is expected to keep most Palm Oil at home. However, production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Indonesia is once again making moves to cut the availability of Palm Oil for export as it manages high internal prices. Canola was higher and closed at new highs for the move last week despite the selling seen in Chicago Soybean Oil and on ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine due to the war The Canadian Dollar moves were more important. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight. Prices are still in the latest trading range but at the top end of the range and appear poised to work higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 1185, 1194, and 1224 May. Support is at 1120.00, 1100.00, and 1085.00 May, with resistance at 1178.00, 1188.00, and 1200.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6570 and 6740 June. Support is at 5940, 5600, and 5550 June, with resistance at 6100, 6380, and 6500 June.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 22, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 163,526 :
: Positions :
: 85,464 134,640 1,936 3,109 1,960 48,342 2,405 6,726 5,581 2,265 10,787 :
: Changes from: March 15, 2022 :
: 829 2,961 57 -1 6 847 584 -340 1,526 -269 1,846 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 52.3 82.3 1.2 1.9 1.2 29.6 1.5 4.1 3.4 1.4 6.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 258 :
: 42 49 4 6 4 59 9 14 62 49 46 :
—————————————————————————————————————-
Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal.
US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn
HRW
SRW
Soybeans
Soybean Meal
Soybean Oil
March
200 Mar
250 May
155 May
195 May
April
195 May
250 May
155 May
195 May
May
175 May
250 May
150 May
195 May
DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 25
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1143.60 -5.00 May 2022 up 11.90
Basis: Thunder Bay 1189.40 50.00 May 2022 dn 9.20
Basis: Vancouver 1199.40 60.00 May 2022 dn 9.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1707.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
May 1607.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1557.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1417.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1387.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1710.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
May 1610.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1560.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1420.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1390.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1640.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1510.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 6680.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 560.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.215)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 121,106 lots, or 7.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 6,206 6,266 6,151 6,153 6,229 6,210 -19 11,580 16,079
Jul-22 6,220 6,270 6,156 6,158 6,238 6,218 -20 98,200 129,553
Sep-22 6,089 6,146 6,037 6,037 6,115 6,088 -27 1,631 6,061
Nov-22 5,939 5,968 5,876 5,876 5,931 5,927 -4 9,295 21,536
Jan-23 5,896 5,925 5,846 5,850 5,894 5,885 -9 386 1,672
Mar-23 5,862 5,894 5,826 5,826 5,863 5,869 6 14 106
Corn
Turnover: 863,425 lots, or 25.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 2,887 2,914 2,858 2,863 2,895 2,884 -11 471,431 854,635
Jul-22 2,939 2,965 2,912 2,916 2,944 2,939 -5 95,591 284,931
Sep-22 2,975 2,998 2,947 2,950 2,973 2,970 -3 269,932 664,197
Nov-22 2,941 2,960 2,934 2,938 2,944 2,944 0 11,915 59,343
Jan-23 2,943 2,959 2,943 2,957 2,941 2,952 11 8,282 45,798
Mar-23 2,956 2,977 2,956 2,976 2,956 2,971 15 6,274 12,979
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,538,214 lots, or 10.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 4,351 4,371 4,254 4,260 4,388 4,313 -75 1,292,156 967,844
Jul-22 4,320 4,346 4,238 4,243 4,364 4,295 -69 135,725 282,463
Aug-22 4,288 4,319 4,229 4,231 4,346 4,283 -63 52,531 174,292
Sep-22 4,230 4,237 4,154 4,160 4,247 4,196 -51 952,651 1,201,212
Nov-22 4,061 4,087 4,023 4,026 4,097 4,055 -42 27,901 90,421
Dec-22 3,966 3,998 3,944 3,944 4,010 3,975 -35 14,477 26,599
Jan-23 3,879 3,910 3,853 3,858 3,912 3,886 -26 61,884 110,920
Mar-23 3,740 3,765 3,708 3,708 3,770 3,743 -27 889 2,499
Palm Oil
Turnover: 798,823 lots, or 88.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-22 12,602 12,828 12,552 12,672 12,562 12,660 98 111 1,473
May-22 11,600 11,832 11,438 11,580 11,500 11,614 114 467,140 282,195
Jun-22 11,162 11,364 11,030 11,150 11,094 11,200 106 24,370 75,426
Jul-22 10,722 10,932 10,658 10,752 10,722 10,794 72 11,394 61,490
Aug-22 10,408 10,614 10,352 10,412 10,408 10,484 76 8,524 38,076
Sep-22 10,200 10,388 10,122 10,168 10,178 10,254 76 277,351 175,764
Oct-22 10,006 10,202 9,942 9,998 10,000 10,066 66 8,746 9,834
Nov-22 9,890 10,000 9,890 9,930 9,852 9,918 66 17 278
Dec-22 9,798 9,842 9,798 9,842 9,752 9,812 60 6 115
Jan-23 9,626 9,822 9,626 9,660 9,690 9,722 32 1,131 5,778
Feb-23 9,640 9,640 9,568 9,604 9,594 9,586 -8 6 670
Mar-23 9,526 9,640 9,472 9,472 9,562 9,556 -6 27 31
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 685,671 lots, or 70.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-22 10,304 10,450 10,240 10,284 10,290 10,338 48 181,767 217,194
Jul-22 10,234 10,406 10,194 10,250 10,246 10,298 52 25,250 122,616
Aug-22 10,166 10,368 10,134 10,206 10,210 10,248 38 8,138 72,313
Sep-22 10,108 10,300 10,060 10,130 10,132 10,182 50 447,935 316,177
Nov-22 9,974 10,164 9,950 10,014 10,022 10,058 36 14,606 24,278
Dec-22 9,898 10,090 9,898 9,952 9,966 9,984 18 6,282 8,242
Jan-23 9,830 10,036 9,830 9,866 9,908 9,928 20 1,677 5,416
Mar-23 9,710 9,838 9,708 9,758 9,704 9,782 78 16 319
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322