About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON       

General Comments:  Cotton futures closed higher for the week after a strong rally on Friday as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continued and as shipments of Crude Oil and products from Russia were interrupted.  That means higher Crude Oil prices and higher polyester prices for the world.  The weekly export sales report last week was strong but below the previous week.  The US Dollar has been moving higher in the past week due to the war and the stocks market has worked lower.  Short term trends are still sideways but the market action is weak.  USDA made no changes to the US data in the latest WASDE reports but did lower beginning and ending stocks and world production in the world estimates.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 118.89 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 572 bales, from 572 bales yesterday.   ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 12230 and 12610 May.  Support is at 11910, 11810, and 11540 May, with resistance of 12310, 12450 and 12510 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 08, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #033661                                                              Open Interest is   279,054

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   74,520     8,878    45,040    53,988   208,481    87,003     7,536   260,550   269,936:   18,504     9,119

    : Changes from: March 1, 2022              (Change in open interest:     -10,385)         :

    :   -4,914       -70    -5,695     1,476    -3,813       414      -599    -8,717   -10,176:   -1,668      -209

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     26.7       3.2      16.1      19.3      74.7      31.2       2.7      93.4      96.7:      6.6       3.3

    : Total Traders:   257          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      118        24        62        52        61        45        16       230       154:

——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was a little higher in range trading on Friday and held to a trading range for much of the week after collapsing and trading limit down to start the week.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.  USDA lowered production estimates for Oranges again this week but the market did not seem to care

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average above normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.   ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 134.00, 131.00, and 128.00 May, with resistance at 144.00, 146.00, and 151.00 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 8, 2022

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               :

CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is    14,020                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    1,811    11,424     3,277         0         0     2,498         0         9     1,553        43     1,564 :

: Changes from:     March 1, 2022                                                                              :

:     -719        54       382         0         0       473         0         4        65       -91        85 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     12.9      81.5      23.4       0.0       0.0      17.8       0.0       0.1      11.1       0.3      11.2 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    64                     :

:       17        13         7         0         0        17         0         .        19         .         6 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE 

General Comments New York was lower and London was higher Friday in consolidation trading.  Futures in New York were weaker on weaker demand ideas as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continued and caused a lot of concern about demand for Coffee in the world in the future.  The US Dollar is higher in a safety play against other world currencies and is also hurting demand ideas.  Coffee prices have been negatively affected, but most other agricultural futures are higher to sharply higher due to the war.  The logistical and production problems in Brazil are still around.  The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year.  Containers are not available in Brazil to ship the Coffee.  Growing conditions for the next crop are good and stronger production is expected.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.027 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 196.07 ct/lb.  Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers.  ICE NY said that 10 contracts were tendered against delivery of March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 294 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 221.00, 215.00, and 210.00 May, and resistance is at 231.00, 236.00 and 239.00 May.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 2160 and 2300 May.   Support is at 2040, 2010, and 2000 May, and resistance is at 2120, 2160, and 2200 May.

DJ Brazil Coffee Exports Fell 13.6% in February, Cecafe Says

  By Jeffrey T. Lewis

  SÃO PAULO–Brazilian coffee exports fell in February as logistics bottlenecks continued to slow shipments abroad, according to exporters group Cecafe.

  The South American country exported 3.4 million 132-pound bags of coffee last month, a decline of 13.6% from the same month a year earlier, Cecafe said Friday. Sales abroad of the arabica variety of coffee fell 10.2%, to 3 million bags, while exports of robusta beans dropped 58.6%, to 129,809 bags.

  Exports of ground, roast and soluble coffee fell 5.4%, to 294,713 bags, Cecafe said.

  Brazilian coffee exports have been slowed for months by a lack of containers and shipping capacity. There has been some improvement in recent weeks, but there are still many kinks to be worked out, according to Cecafe President Nicolas Rueda.

  “We are far from normal, with a lot of instability, alternating good weeks with bad ones, since the availability of containers and spaces on ships is still insufficient to transport what was dammed up in the port and to embark the loads that are arriving for export,” he said.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 08, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #083731                                                              Open Interest is   284,051

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   44,040    10,300    75,991    96,238   176,076    56,525    14,696   272,795   277,063:   11,257     6,989

    : Changes from: March 1, 2022              (Change in open interest:     -18,156)         :

    :   -9,842       164    -8,961     2,269   -10,360    -1,408       763   -17,942   -18,393:     -214       237

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     15.5       3.6      26.8      33.9      62.0      19.9       5.2      96.0      97.5:      4.0       2.5

    : Total Traders:   393          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      125        68       115       126       130        45        21       354       286:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 03/08/2022

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long      Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  114,258       63,051        76,623        3,395     2,715         1,986

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          55.2%         67.1%         3.0%      2.4%          1.7%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   126            43            38           12         6            11

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                      Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

  21,259         6,787         3,538     3,739        9,088          10,830

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  18.6%          5.9%          3.1%      3.3%         8.0%            9.5%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    29            10            11        9            8               12

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  6,460        2,691

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  5.7%         2.4%

SUGAR               

General Comments:  New York and London were lower Friday and for the week in reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the potential for the west to cut off Crude Oil exports from Russia.  President Biden indicated last week that Russian energy imports would be curtailed due to the war.  The daily charts show that price trends are mixed.  News reports indicate that little export activity is taking place from Ukraine or Russia with the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports basically closed.  Some of the oil giants have pulled operations out of Russia in response to the war, but others are still working there.  There are reports of improved growing conditions for the crops in central-south areas of Brazil but Brazilian mills are producing Ethanol and not Sugar.  Demand ideas for Ethanol are improving on fears that Russia might not be able to sell into the world market.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get isolated showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1890, 1850, and 1840 May and resistance is at 1920, 1950, and 1980 May.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 521.00, 510.00, and 507.00 May and resistance is at 532.00, 538.00, and 544.00 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 08, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #080732                                                              Open Interest is   996,004

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :  154,186    55,095   192,840   289,685   631,824   265,090    62,262   901,801   942,021:   94,204    53,983

    : Changes from: March 1, 2022              (Change in open interest:      56,966)         :

    :   35,231   -28,266    14,597        63    89,151    -3,800   -10,569    46,091    64,913:   10,875    -7,947

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     15.5       5.5      19.4      29.1      63.4      26.6       6.3      90.5      94.6:      9.5       5.4

    : Total Traders:   240          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       76        36        71        74        71        40        16       218       170:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 03/08/2022

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  68,924        28,560        57,147        10,106     2,422         1,929

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          41.4%         82.9%         14.7%      3.5%          2.8%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   101            32            36            7          3            5

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                      Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

  17,579         2,242         1,989     2,025        561             569

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  25.5%          3.3%          2.9%      2.9%         0.8%            0.8%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    32            5             15        5            5               5

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  6,167        2,065

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  8.9%         3.0%

COCOA                                                                                 

General Comments New York and London closed lower on Friday but higher for the week on dry weather forecasts for West Africa and despite demand fears as Europe is the leading per capita consumer of Chocolate and demand could drop if the war in Ukraine expands or even if it doesn’t.  The weather is generally too dry for West Africa and good in Southeast Asia.  Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.  Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around.  Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results.  Trends are up in these markets.

Overnight News:  Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.695 million bags.  ICE NY said that 12 contracts were delivered against March delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 749 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2770 May.  Support is at 2600, 2550, and 2510 May, with resistance at 2670, 2710, and 2740 May.  Trends in London are up with no objectives.  Support is at 1770, 1740, and 1710 May, with resistance at 1820, 1840, and 1860 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 08, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #073732                                                              Open Interest is   301,944

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   37,137    34,392    77,443   106,937   157,957    60,100    22,701   281,617   292,493:   20,327     9,451

    : Changes from: March 1, 2022              (Change in open interest:     -10,073)         :

    :   -1,807    -8,810    -4,513    -3,812     5,477    -1,587    -3,466   -11,719   -11,312:    1,646     1,240

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     12.3      11.4      25.6      35.4      52.3      19.9       7.5      93.3      96.9:      6.7       3.1

    : Total Traders:   221          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       54        72        71        49        40        29        19       177       166:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 03/08/2022

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  314,910       184,966       188,146       21,874     41,829       24,853

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          58.7%         59.7%         6.9%       13.3%         7.9%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   136            54            43           11          9            11

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                       Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long         Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

  30,512         18,013       13,862     12,381        715            24,726

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

   9.7%          5.7%          4.4%      3.9%          0.2%            7.9%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    21            20            12        11            6               13

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  1,736        2,766

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  0.6%         0.9%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322