About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON       

General Comments:  Cotton futures closed higher again but held inside the recent trading range as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continued and as shipments of Crude Oil and products from Russia were interrupted.  That means higher Crude Oil prices and higher polyester prices for the world.  The US Dollar traded lower during the session.  Short term trends are still sideways.  It’s been a demand market and prices have been sideways waiting for demand to catch up to the price.  Ideas are that demand remains strong for US Cotton.  Good US production is expected for next year as planted area is expected to increase due to high Cotton prices and the expense of planting Corn.

Overnight News:  The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures.  The Southeast should get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 115.83 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 572 bales, from 572 bales yesterday.   ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 11460 and 11370 May.  Support is at 11540, 11460, and 11390 May, with resistance of 11860, 12090 and 12310 May.

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was higher yesterday in recovery trading from the limit down day the previous session.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average above normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.   ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 134.00, 131.00, and 128.00 May, with resistance at 144.00, 146.00, and 151.00 May.

COFFEE 

General Comments New York and London were a lot higher again yesterday as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continued.  There was some talk that the Ukrainian president had made ap peace offer to Russia and that forced the US Dollar lower and allowed Coffee to rally.  Coffee prices have been negatively affected, but most other agricultural futures are higher to sharply higher due to the war.  The logistical and production problems in Brazil are still around.  London is showing that the logistics from Vietnam are much better and that Coffee has been moving.  The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year.  Containers are not available in Brazil to ship the Coffee.  Vietnam is getting mostly dry conditions.  The rest of Southeast Asia should get scattered showers in the islands and mostly dry conditions on the mainland.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are a little higher today at 1.002 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 201.03 ct/lb.  Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers.  ICE NY said that 42 contracts were tendered against delivery of March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 284 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 238.00 and 247.00 May.  Support is at 227.00, 221.00, and 215.00 May, and resistance is at 235.00, 239.00 and 243.00 May.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 2110, 2160, and 2300 May.   Support is at 2040, 2010, and 1970 May, and resistance is at 2130, 2160, and 2200 May.

SUGAR               

General Comments:  New York and London were higher yesterday as Crude Oil moved sharply higher once again.  The rally was in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the potential for the west to cut off Crude Oil exports from Russia.  The US will in fact start to cut Crude Oil and products imports from Russia and allies are expected to follow soon.  The daily charts show that May has completed a bottom and that price trends are up.  News reports indicate that little export activity is taking place from Ukraine or Russia with the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports basically closed.  Some of the oil giants have pulled operations out of Russia in response to the war.  There are reports of improved growing conditions for the crops in central-south areas of Brazil but Brazilian mills are producing Ethanol and not Sugar.  Demand ideas for Ethanol are improving on fears that Russia might not be able to sell into the world market, but Iran could return to sell with the approval of the west.  Ideas are that the Sugar supplies are available from India and Thailand.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get isolated showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1900, 1850, and 1810 May and resistance is at 1990, 2010, and 2030 May.  Trends in London are up with no objectives.  Support is at 527.00, 521.00, and 510.00 May and resistance is at 548.00, 554.00, and 560.00 May.

COCOA                                                                                 

General Comments New York closed unchanged to higher and London closed higher yesterday despite demand fears as Europe is the leading per capita consumer of Chocolate and demand could drop if the war in Ukraine expands or even if it doesn’t.  The weather is generally too dry for West Africa and good in Southeast Asia.  Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results.  Trends are up in these markets as both markets completed lows on Friday.

Overnight News:  Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.716 million bags.  ICE NY said that 0 contracts were delivered against March delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 737 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2670 and 2770 May.  Support is at 2600, 2550, and 2510 May, with resistance at 2700, 2740, and 2750 May.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 1800 May.  Support is at 1740, 1710, and 1680 May, with resistance at 1800, 1820, and 1840 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322