About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 9
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE March Mar 10, 2022 33 Mar 07, 2022
KC HRW WHEAT March Mar 10, 2022 16 Mar 08, 2022
WHEAT March Mar 10, 2022 20 Mar 07, 2022

DJ March Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2021-22, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Wednesday at noon ET.
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA February USDA 2020-21
Corn 112.9 110.0-116.1 114.0 87.0
Soybeans 128.2 121.2-134.0 134.0 138.0
Corn Soybeans
AgriSompo 110.5 128.0
Allendale 114.0 130.0
DC Analysis 114.0 123.0
Doane 112.0 125.0
EDF Man
Futures Intl 113.0 129.0
Linn Group 113.0 129.0
Sid Love Consulting
Midland Research 110.0 130.0
Midwest Market Solutions
Northstar 113.0 130.0
Prime Ag 114.0 134.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities Inc. 114.0 128.5
StoneX 116.1 121.2
US Commodities Inc. 112.0 128.0
Western Milling 112.0 130.0
Zaner Ag 112.5 129.5
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA February USDA 2020-21
Corn 52.0 50.0-54.0 54.0 51.5
Soybeans 42.9 40.0-45.0 45.0 46.2
Corn Soybeans
AgriSompo 53.5 44.5
Allendale 52.0 43.0
DC Analysis 51.0 40.0
Doane 50.0 40.0
EDF Man
Futures Intl 52.0 42.5
Linn Group 50.0 42.0
Sid Love Consulting
Midland Research 51.0 42.0
Midwest Market Solutions
Northstar 53.5 43.5
Prime Ag 54.0 45.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities Inc. 53.0 44.5
StoneX 51.0 44.0
US Commodities Inc. 51.0 43.0
Western Milling 53.0 42.0
Zaner Ag 53.5 45.0

DJ March World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2021-22, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Wednesday at noon ET.
World 2021-22 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA February USDA 2020-21
Corn 299.6 293.0-302.2 302.2 292.1
Soybeans 88.9 86.3-92.0 92.8 100.4
Wheat 278.0 275.6-280.0 278.2 289.9
2021-22
Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo 300.7 86.5 277.0
Allendale 299.8 90.0 277.0
Futures Intl 299.0 87.5 277.6
Linn Group 293.0 87.8 280.0
Northstar 300.0 89.5 278.0
Prime Ag 302.0 92.0 280.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities Inc 298.0 88.0 276.0
StoneX 302.2 86.3 275.6
US Commodities Inc. 300.5 92.0 279.0
Western Milling 300.0 89.0 279.0
Zaner Ag 300.7 89.6 278.7

DJ U.S. March Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2021-22, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Wednesday at noon ET.
U.S. 2021-22 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA February USDA 2020-2021
Corn 1,476 1,350-1,540 1,540 1,235
Soybeans 270 182-325 325 257
Wheat 633 598-661 648 845
2021-22
Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo 1,465 290 629
Allendale 1,465 270 636
DC Analysis 1,390 235 628
Doane 1,440 210 630
Futures Intl 1,515 275 633
Linn Group 1,350 249 648
Midland Research 1,440 275 613
Northstar 1,450 290 640
Prime Ag 1,540 325 648
Risk Mgmt Commodities Inc 1,480 275 638
RJ O’Brien 1,509 255 661
StoneX 1,483 182 628
US Commodities Inc. 1,540 305 608
Vantage RM 1,500 310 598
Western Milling 1,511 285 634
Zaner Ag 1,540 290 648

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday as Chicago May finally started to trade. All short positions have had the chance to be liquidated now and the market is in a correction for at least the short term. It was a wild day with news reports from France that President Zelensky had proposed to not join NATO and offered Crimea and Donbas to the Russians in return for peace. The story was not confirmed but did send futures to limit down at one point. But, the war rages on and Wheat prices recovered and traded a little higher before closing a little lower for the day. Wheat prices might have topped out but should hold firm as Ukraine and Russia account for 30% or so of the worlds export trade. There could be more to come for this market longer term.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with no objectives. Support is at 1209, 1164, and 1134 May, with resistance at 1324, 1363, and 1388 May. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 1203, 1158, and 1121 May, with resistance at 1300, 1312, and 1324 May. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 1203, 1153, and 10122 May, and resistance is at 1226, 1238, and 1272 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower again yesterday as traders prepared for the latest USDA WASDE reports that will be released later this morning. Selling came from ideas that the US is pricing itself out of the world market for Rice. The buying was due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the situation seems to get worse by the day and looks like it will take some time to resolve. The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere in good volumes. Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1577, 1548, and 1543 May and resistance is at 1624, 1639, and 1689 May.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Mar 9
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 14.80 9.37 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.60 9.96 0.00
Brokens 9.39 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed mixed but mostly a little higher as Russia remains bogged down in its war with Ukraine. Russia is still advancing but the resistance from the Ukrainians is much more fierce than expected and the Russian army has been very surprised. There was a news report from France that Ukrainian president Zelensky had offered a peace deal to Russia that included no NATO membership and Russian control of Crimea and Donbas but this was not confirmed. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter and could be enough to keep Corn prices trending higher for now. Ukraine might not plant much if any Corn this Summer, too. Russia is also a Corn exporter and no product is moving from either country at this time Crop losses in South America are noted. Planted area there as well as in the US is in question due to the high costs and the lack of availability of inputs for growing a successful crop.
Overnight News: Colombia bought 100,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 726, 716, and 691 May, and resistance is at 760, 784, and 792 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 613, 603, and 583 May, and resistance is at 626, 683, and 697 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and both products were higher yesterday as the South American weather became a market force again as exports from South America have been restricted and some buyers are moving to the US. The Ukraine war has supported Soybeans and world vegetable oils as Russia and Ukraine both export Sunflower Oil. The two countries account for about 80% of all world Sun oil exports. The US is now interested in curbing Russian exports as part of the sanctions and nothing is moving from either country as the companies effectively embargo themselves from doing business in either country. The world situation is still tightening as Brazil and Argentina are getting into the harvest of less Soybeans. Paraguay might import Soybeans this year from Argentina. Higher Soybeans prices are still possible due to the war and the overall supply and demand situation.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 20,000 tons of US Soyban Oil.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1650, 1634, and 1597 May, and resistance is at 1699, 1724, and 1759 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 477.00, 496.00, and 504.00 May. Support is at 455.00, 443.00, and 436.00 May, and resistance is at 487.00 490.00, and 493.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 7200, 7000, and 6820 May, with resistance at 7730, 7820, and 7940 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on weaker US Soybean Oil prices and despite stronger Crude Oil futures and ideas of short world vegetable oil supplies due to the loss of 80% of the world Sunflower trade due to the war between Russia and Ukraine. Demand for export was stronger last month. Demand in Malaysia could improve soon as Indonesia is expected to keep most Palm Oil at home. Indonesia is once again making moves to cut the availability of Palm Oil for export as it seeks to keep more at home for bio fuels purposes. Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels. Canola was higher once again on ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine due to the war. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canola chart patterns were much like those for Soybeans last week but the markets diverged yesterday. Trends in Canola are up again.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 1131.00, 1144.00, and 1244.00 May. Support is at 1100.00, 1085.00, and 1055.00 May, with resistance at 1140.00, 1152.00, and 1164.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 6170, 6000, and 5810 May, with resistance at 6660, 7110, and 7180 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March
140 Mar
No Quote
150 Mar No Quote

April
125 May
240 May
145 May
130 May

May
120 May
240 May
145 May
No Quote

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 8
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1,102.20 5.00 May 2022 up 20.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 1,166.90 50.00 May 2022 up 37.10
Basis: Vancouver 1,176.90 60.00 May 2022 up 19.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 9
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1907.50 +110.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1857.50 +190.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1552.50 +115.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1910.00 +110.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1860.00 +190.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1555.00 +115.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1800.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1700.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 7750.00 +650.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 610.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.185)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 09
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 204,039 lots, or 1.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-22 6,188 6,199 5,999 6,199 6,065 6,119 54 80 156
May-22 6,174 6,328 6,132 6,305 6,167 6,238 71 26,479 26,512
Jul-22 6,176 6,341 6,128 6,311 6,163 6,229 66 153,496 113,959
Sep-22 6,137 6,252 6,067 6,228 6,080 6,184 104 2,234 4,850
Nov-22 5,989 6,076 5,945 6,040 5,981 6,014 33 21,386 21,046
Jan-23 5,965 6,034 5,912 6,012 5,939 5,982 43 364 959
Corn
Turnover: 721,368 lots, or 20.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-22 2,750 2,759 2,750 2,759 2,760 2,757 -3 68 7,630
May-22 2,883 2,890 2,855 2,888 2,890 2,871 -19 462,901 1,181,058
Jul-22 2,920 2,927 2,891 2,922 2,925 2,910 -15 83,313 227,266
Sep-22 2,950 2,951 2,910 2,942 2,949 2,929 -20 156,131 366,014
Nov-22 2,909 2,911 2,880 2,905 2,905 2,893 -12 10,475 55,996
Jan-23 2,865 2,872 2,849 2,871 2,860 2,858 -2 8,480 28,006
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,866,621 lots, or 11.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-22 4,700 4,800 4,700 4,800 4,605 4,750 145 30 927
May-22 4,110 4,266 4,098 4,222 4,083 4,195 112 1,993,209 1,248,409
Jul-22 4,096 4,223 4,055 4,180 4,046 4,156 110 161,972 247,301
Aug-22 4,021 4,179 3,955 4,137 3,999 4,103 104 74,167 164,442
Sep-22 3,920 4,078 3,910 4,038 3,906 4,008 102 558,955 735,746
Nov-22 3,779 3,952 3,775 3,916 3,763 3,893 130 28,469 86,587
Dec-22 3,713 3,876 3,713 3,852 3,700 3,809 109 7,344 31,350
Jan-23 3,652 3,801 3,645 3,758 3,627 3,725 98 42,475 67,711
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,254,101 lots, or 14.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-22 14,008 14,008 14,008 14,008 14,008 14,008 0 3 1,575
Apr-22 12,998 13,808 12,726 13,734 12,786 13,288 502 2,933 8,583
May-22 11,772 12,718 11,660 12,718 11,776 12,144 368 1,008,090 345,196
Jun-22 11,232 12,150 11,156 12,082 11,250 11,520 270 35,024 67,509
Jul-22 10,830 11,700 10,752 11,640 10,834 11,106 272 18,913 48,663
Aug-22 10,478 11,352 10,476 11,268 10,578 10,826 248 12,597 27,191
Sep-22 10,282 11,078 10,238 10,996 10,300 10,614 314 168,070 87,989
Oct-22 10,026 10,830 10,026 10,740 10,110 10,326 216 7,156 6,236
Nov-22 10,100 10,748 10,072 10,584 10,000 10,260 260 68 348
Dec-22 10,072 10,400 9,980 10,390 10,008 10,048 40 73 179
Jan-23 9,912 10,468 9,800 10,344 9,838 10,112 274 1,153 1,735
Feb-23 9,708 10,200 9,708 10,130 9,730 9,842 112 21 79
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,028,474 lots, or 11.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-22 – – – 11,204 11,204 11,204 0 0 374
May-22 10,742 11,236 10,632 11,118 10,720 10,900 180 753,976 355,149
Jul-22 10,578 10,970 10,460 10,880 10,568 10,698 130 45,679 109,784
Aug-22 10,474 10,810 10,372 10,728 10,494 10,592 98 8,516 61,631
Sep-22 10,360 10,688 10,258 10,630 10,360 10,448 88 195,831 159,588
Nov-22 10,210 10,538 10,170 10,472 10,272 10,378 106 15,289 18,441
Dec-22 10,190 10,476 10,106 10,412 10,226 10,318 92 7,396 7,420
Jan-23 10,070 10,402 10,054 10,326 10,136 10,230 94 1,787 2,427
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322