Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ U.S. January Coffee, Cocoa Imports-March 8
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Jan 2022—- —-Dec 2021—-
-coffee- kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 124,982,585 275,586,600 110,600,977 243,875,154
coffee, roasted 8,309,192 18,321,768 9,243,314 20,381,507
instant 5,594,977 12,336,924 5,804,530 12,798,989
cocoa beans 39,422,855 86,927,395 15,627,912 34,459,546
10 lbs or over 2,575,655 5,679,319 2,119,211 4,672,860
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 8,591,030 18,943,221 17,410,256 38,389,614
not defatted 5,746,327 12,670,651 5,248,190 11,572,259
defatted 5,965,332 13,153,557 4,944,281 10,902,140
unsweetened 8,278,048 18,253,096 8,811,047 19,428,359
sweetened 31,049 68,463 25,477 56,177
coating 4,573,786 10,085,198 4,442,717 9,796,191
chocolate 10,547,774 23,257,842 10,702,249 23,598,459
General Comments: Cotton futures closed higher but held inside the recent trading range as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continued and as shipments of Crude Oil and products from Russia were interrupted. That means higher Crude Oil prices and higher polyester prices for the world. A higher US Dollar was the primary negative for the market yesterday. The weekly export sales report was very strong last week. The US Dollar has been moving higher in the past week due to the war and the stocks market has worked lower. Short term trends are still sideways but the market action is weak. It’s been a demand market and prices have been sideways waiting for demand to catch up to the price. Ideas are that demand remains strong for US Cotton. Good US production is expected for next year as planted area is expected to increase due to high Cotton prices and the expense of planting Corn.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 114.80 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 572 bales, from 572 bales yesterday. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 11460 and 11370 May. Support is at 11540, 11460, and 11390 May, with resistance of 11860, 12090 and 12310 May.
DJ U.S. January Cotton Exports-Mar 8
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Jan 22 Dec 21 Nov 21 Jan 21
Upland, under 1 inch 7,284,731 3,807,159 1,971,337 11,141,483
1 to 1 1/8 inch 96,005,228 51,436,291 32,041,255 152,725,602
upland 1 1/8 and over 6,288,104 10,287,877 5,107,573 178,550,486
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 196,595,612 122,417,860 64,822,321 9,032,022
All cotton 306,173,675 187,949,187 103,942,486 351,449,593
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Jan 22 Dec 21 Nov 21 Jan 21
Upland, under 1 inch 33,458 17,486 9,054 51,172
1 to 1 1/8 inch 440,948 236,245 147,164 701,463
upland 1 1/8 and over 28,881 47,252 23,459 820,076
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 902,956 562,261 297,726 41,484
All cotton 1,406,244 863,244 477,404 1,614,195
General Comments: FCOJ was sharply lower yesterday on some follow through selling from long liquidation, but higher for the week as speculators got done liquidating long positions caused by the mild Florida Winter weather. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good. Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 137.00, 134.00, and 131.00 May, with resistance at 144.00, 146.00, and 151.00 May.
General Comments: New York and London were a little higher again yesterday in consolidation trading as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continued and caused a lot of concern about demand for Coffee in the world in the future. The US Dollar is higher in a safety play against other world currencies and is also hurting demand ideas. The Russian moves into Ukraine caused a big rally in the US Dollar as well. Coffee prices have been negatively affected, but most other agricultural futures are higher to sharply higher due to the war. The logistical and production problems in Brazil are still around. London is showing that the logistics from Vietnam are much better and that Coffee has been moving. The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year. Containers are not available in Brazil to ship the Coffee. Vietnam is getting mostly dry conditions. The rest of Southeast Asia should get scattered showers in the islands and mostly dry conditions on the mainland.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are a little lower today at 0.992 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 194.74 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 24 contracts were tendered against delivery of March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 242 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 221.00, 215.00, and 210.00 May, and resistance is at 229.00, 231.00 and 235.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2000, 1970, and 1940 May, and resistance is at 2090, 2130, and 2160 May.
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday as Crude Oil moved sharply higher in early trading and then gave back much of the gains during the session but till held onto gains into the Sugar close. The rally was in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the potential for the west to cut off Crude Oil exports from Russia. The daily charts show that May has completed a bottom and that price trends are up. News reports indicate that little export activity is taking place from Ukraine or Russia with the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports basically closed. Some of the oil giants have pulled operations out of Russia in response to the war. There are reports of improved growing conditions for the crops in central-south areas of Brazil but Brazilian mills are producing Ethanol and not Sugar. Demand ideas for Ethanol are improving on fears that Russia might not be able to sell into the world market, but Iran could return to sell with the approval of the west. Ideas are that the Sugar supplies are available from India and Thailand.
Overnight News: Brazil will get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 1920, 1900, and 1850 May and resistance is at 1990, 2010, and 2030 May. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 521.00, 510.00, and 507.00 May and resistance is at 548.00, 554.00, and 560.00 May.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again yesterday in recovery trading and despite demand fears as Europe is the leading per capita consumer of Chocolate and demand could drop if the war in Ukraine expands or even if it doesn’t. The weather is generally too dry for West Africa and good in Southeast Asia. Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around. Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results. Ghana arrivals are now just 430,000 tons, from 733,000 tons last year. Trends are up in these markets as both markets completed lows on Friday.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are sharply higher today at 4.723 million bags. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were delivered against March delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 737 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2670 and 2770 May. Support is at 2550, 2510, and 2470 May, with resistance at 2640, 2650, and 2700 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1800 May. Support is at 1710, 1680, and 1670 May, with resistance at 1760, 1780, and 1800 May.Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322