About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. January Coffee, Cocoa Imports-March 8

   In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds

by Dow Jones.

                       —-Jan 2022—-                —-Dec 2021—-

  -coffee-               kilograms          pounds       kilograms        pounds

coffee, unroasted      124,982,585     275,586,600     110,600,977   243,875,154

coffee, roasted          8,309,192      18,321,768       9,243,314    20,381,507

coffee, soluble

   instant               5,594,977      12,336,924       5,804,530    12,798,989

  -Cocoa-

cocoa beans             39,422,855      86,927,395      15,627,912    34,459,546

sweetened bars/block

  10 lbs or over         2,575,655       5,679,319       2,119,211     4,672,860

for retail candy                 0               0               0             0

cocoa butter             8,591,030      18,943,221      17,410,256    38,389,614

cocoa paste,

  not defatted           5,746,327      12,670,651       5,248,190    11,572,259

cocoa paste

   defatted              5,965,332      13,153,557       4,944,281    10,902,140

cocoa powder,

   unsweetened           8,278,048      18,253,096       8,811,047    19,428,359

cocoa powder,

    sweetened               31,049          68,463          25,477        56,177

confectioners

   coating               4,573,786      10,085,198       4,442,717     9,796,191

candy containing

 chocolate              10,547,774      23,257,842      10,702,249    23,598,459

 

COTTON       

General Comments:  Cotton futures closed higher but held inside the recent trading range as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continued and as shipments of Crude Oil and products from Russia were interrupted.  That means higher Crude Oil prices and higher polyester prices for the world.  A higher US Dollar was the primary negative for the market yesterday.  The weekly export sales report was very strong last week.  The US Dollar has been moving higher in the past week due to the war and the stocks market has worked lower.  Short term trends are still sideways but the market action is weak.  It’s been a demand market and prices have been sideways waiting for demand to catch up to the price.  Ideas are that demand remains strong for US Cotton.  Good US production is expected for next year as planted area is expected to increase due to high Cotton prices and the expense of planting Corn.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 114.80 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 572 bales, from 572 bales yesterday.   ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 11460 and 11370 May.  Support is at 11540, 11460, and 11390 May, with resistance of 11860, 12090 and 12310 May.

DJ U.S. January Cotton Exports-Mar 8

    In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department

Commerce.

(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.

Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.

                                      ——- In Kilograms ——-

                                Jan 22     Dec 21       Nov 21        Jan 21

Upland, under 1 inch         7,284,731   3,807,159   1,971,337    11,141,483

  1 to 1 1/8 inch           96,005,228  51,436,291  32,041,255   152,725,602

  upland 1 1/8 and over      6,288,104  10,287,877   5,107,573   178,550,486

Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc  196,595,612 122,417,860  64,822,321     9,032,022

All cotton                 306,173,675 187,949,187 103,942,486   351,449,593

                              ——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-

                                Jan 22      Dec 21      Nov 21        Jan 21

Upland, under 1 inch            33,458      17,486       9,054        51,172

  1 to 1 1/8 inch              440,948     236,245     147,164       701,463

  upland 1 1/8 and over         28,881      47,252      23,459       820,076

Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc      902,956     562,261     297,726        41,484

All cotton                   1,406,244     863,244     477,404     1,614,195

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was sharply lower yesterday on some follow through selling from long liquidation, but higher for the week as speculators got done liquidating long positions caused by the mild Florida Winter weather.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average above normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.   ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 137.00, 134.00, and 131.00 May, with resistance at 144.00, 146.00, and 151.00 May.

COFFEE 

General Comments New York and London were a little higher again yesterday in consolidation trading as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continued and caused a lot of concern about demand for Coffee in the world in the future.  The US Dollar is higher in a safety play against other world currencies and is also hurting demand ideas.  The Russian moves into Ukraine caused a big rally in the US Dollar as well.  Coffee prices have been negatively affected, but most other agricultural futures are higher to sharply higher due to the war.  The logistical and production problems in Brazil are still around.  London is showing that the logistics from Vietnam are much better and that Coffee has been moving.  The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year.  Containers are not available in Brazil to ship the Coffee.  Vietnam is getting mostly dry conditions.  The rest of Southeast Asia should get scattered showers in the islands and mostly dry conditions on the mainland.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are a little lower today at 0.992 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 194.74 ct/lb.  Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers.  ICE NY said that 24 contracts were tendered against delivery of March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 242 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 221.00, 215.00, and 210.00 May, and resistance is at 229.00, 231.00 and 235.00 May.  Trends in London are mixed.   Support is at 2000, 1970, and 1940 May, and resistance is at 2090, 2130, and 2160 May.

SUGAR               

General Comments:  New York and London were higher yesterday as Crude Oil moved sharply higher in early trading and then gave back much of the gains during the session but till held onto gains into the Sugar close.  The rally was in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the potential for the west to cut off Crude Oil exports from Russia.  The daily charts show that May has completed a bottom and that price trends are up.  News reports indicate that little export activity is taking place from Ukraine or Russia with the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports basically closed.  Some of the oil giants have pulled operations out of Russia in response to the war.  There are reports of improved growing conditions for the crops in central-south areas of Brazil but Brazilian mills are producing Ethanol and not Sugar.  Demand ideas for Ethanol are improving on fears that Russia might not be able to sell into the world market, but Iran could return to sell with the approval of the west.  Ideas are that the Sugar supplies are available from India and Thailand.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get isolated showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives.  Support is at 1920, 1900, and 1850 May and resistance is at 1990, 2010, and 2030 May.  Trends in London are up with no objectives.  Support is at 521.00, 510.00, and 507.00 May and resistance is at 548.00, 554.00, and 560.00 May.

COCOA                                                                                 

General Comments New York and London closed higher again yesterday in recovery trading and despite demand fears as Europe is the leading per capita consumer of Chocolate and demand could drop if the war in Ukraine expands or even if it doesn’t.  The weather is generally too dry for West Africa and good in Southeast Asia.  Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.  Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around.  Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results.  Ghana arrivals are now just 430,000 tons, from 733,000 tons last year.  Trends are up in these markets as both markets completed lows on Friday.

Overnight News:  Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are sharply higher today at 4.723 million bags.  ICE NY said that 0 contracts were delivered against March delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 737 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2670 and 2770 May.  Support is at 2550, 2510, and 2470 May, with resistance at 2640, 2650, and 2700 May.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 1800 May.  Support is at 1710, 1680, and 1670 May, with resistance at 1760, 1780, and 1800 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322