About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Wheat:  Wheat markets mostly traded freely on Friday for much of the session but still closed with strong gains on the day on more reports that the Russian invasion was taking longer and was more bloody than expected.  Chicago May opened locked limit up and never traded below that level as short funds and other speculators try to get out of these positions.  Wheat closed sharply higher for the week due to the potential loss of up to a third of the available export supply to the world market.  Ports are closed in Ukraine and Russian shippers and exporters are not offering in part due to sanctions but mostly due to the war and the chance to lose ships.  Plus, Russian internal markets are frozen and it will take some time to get going again.  Mr Biden said that the US would not embargo Crude Oil or agricultural products trade from the world market but the lack of Russian offers makes an embargo a moot point right now.  Higher prices seem likely down the road.  Mr Putin appears to have decided that Ukraine will be part of Russia and should never have been allowed to leave the Soviet Union.  Ukraine is fighting but will be badly outnumbered.  The human losses are going to be high for both sides in this conflict.   Ukrainians have no interest in living under Russian occupation so the war could be deadly and very costly to both sides.  Russia and Ukraine are both major Wheat exporters so the Wheat market could be damaged.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

 

Corn:  Corn closed higher as Russia remains bogged down in its war with Ukraine.  It was a higher day for Corn with Wheat sharply higher but Soybeans mostly lower.  The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter and could be enough to keep Corn prices trending higher for now.  Ukraine might not plant much if any Corn this Summer, too.  Russia is also a Corn exporter and no product is moving from either country at this time  Crop losses in South America are noted.  The Soybeans harvest farther north is being somewhat delayed due to wet weather and this might affect planting of the Safrinha crop in Brazil.  Planted area there as well as in the US is in question due to the high costs and the lack of availability of inputs for growing a successful crop.

Weekly Corn Futures

 Weekly Oats Futures

 

Soybeans and Soybean Meal:  Soybeans and both products were lower on Friday on long liquidation and some selling by Brazilian and US producers and going against the war between Ukraine and Russia heating up and as Russia got into a longer war than anticipated in Ukraine.  The war has supported Soybeans and world vegetable oils as Russia and Ukraine both export Sunflower Oil.  The two countries account for about 80% of all world Sun oil exports.  The US is not real interested in curbing Russian exports as part of the sanctions but nothing is moving from either country as the companies effectively embargo themselves from doing business in either country.  The world situation is still tightening as Brazil and Argentina are getting into the harvest of less Soybeans.  Paraguay might import Soybeans this year from Argentina.  Higher Soybeans prices are still possible due to the war and the overall supply and demand situation.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

 

Rice:  Rice was higher again Friday and higher for the week and trends are up on the daily and weekly charts.  The market gave back much of the price gains by the close but still closed higher.  The buying was due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the situation seems to get worse by the day and looks like it will take some time to resolve.  The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere in good volumes.  Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

 

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils:  Palm Oil was sharply lower on Friday on reports that India is importing 14% less Palm Oil this year due to high prices and despite ideas the Russian invasion of Ukraine are still bullish factors.  Futures had been dramatically higher earlier in the week due to the war and the potential loss of 80% of the worlds export supply of Sun oil to the market..  Demand for export was stronger last month.  Demand in Malaysia could improve soon as Indonesia is expected to keep most Palm Oil at home.  Indonesia is once again making moves to cut the availability of Palm Oil for export as it seeks to keep more at home for bio fuels purposes.  There are still poor production conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia.  Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels.  Canola was higher along with Chicago and Malaysia and despite ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine due to the war  The market is worried about South American production as well.  Canola chart patterns were much like those for Soybeans last week.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

 

Cotton:  Cotton futures closed lower but held inside the recent trading range as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continued and as shipments of Crude Oil and products from Russia were interrupted.  That means higher Crude Oil prices and higher polyester prices for the world.  The weekly export sales report was very strong and helped the buying.  The US Dollar has been moving higher in the past week due to the war and the stocks market has worked lower.  Short term trends are still sideways but the market action is weak.  It’s been a demand market and prices have been sideways waiting for demand to catch up to the price.  Ideas are that demand remains strong for US Cotton.  Good US production is expected for next year as planted area is expected to increase due to high Cotton prices and the expense of planting Corn.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

 

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus:  FCOJ was lower on Friday on some long liquidation, but higher for the week as speculators got done liquidating long positions caused by the mild Florida Winter weather.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

 

Coffee:  New York and London were a little higher on Friday but much lower for the week as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continued and caused a lot of concern about demand for Coffee in the world in the future.  The US Dollar is higher in a safety play against other world currencies and is also hurting demand ideas.  The Russian moves into Ukraine caused a big rally in the US Dollar as well.  Coffee prices have been negatively affected, but most other agricultural futures are higher to sharply higher due to the war.  The logistical and production problems in Brazil are still around.  London is showing that the logistics from Vietnam are much better and that Coffee has been moving.  The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year.  Containers are not available in Brazil to ship the Coffee.  Vietnam is getting mostly dry conditions.  The rest of Southeast Asia should get scattered showers in the islands and mostly dry conditions on the mainland.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

 

Sugar:  New York and London were higher last week in reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the potential for the west to cut off Crude Oil exports from Russia.  The daily charts show that May has completed a bottom and that price trends are up.  News reports indicate that little export activity is taking place from Ukraine or Russia with the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports basically closed.  Some of the oil giants have pulled operations out of Russia in response to the war.  There are reports of improved growing conditions for the crops in central-south areas of Brazil but Brazilian mills are producing Ethanol and not Sugar.  Demand ideas for Ethanol are improving on fears that Russia might not be able to sell into the world market, but Iran could return to sell with the approval of the west.  Ideas are that the Sugar supplies are available from India and Thailand.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

 

Cocoa:  New York and London closed higher again Friday and higher for the week in recovery trading and despite demand fears as Europe is the leading per capita consumer of Chocolate and demand could drop if the war in Ukraine expands or even if it doesn’t.  The weather is generally too dry for West Africa and good in Southeast Asia.  Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.  Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around.  Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results.  Ghana arrivals are now just 430,000 tons, from 733,000 tons last year.  Trends are up in these markets as both markets completed lows on Friday.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322