About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON       

General Comments:  Cotton futures closed a little higher in nearby months and a little lower in deferred months.  The deferred months were lower on demand worries caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine but the nerb months were higher on strong demand ideas for the short term.  The war could spread and hurt world demand for Cotton.  Short term trends are sideways.  It’s been a demand market and prices have been sideways waiting for demand to catch up to the price.  Ideas are that demand remains strong for US Cotton.  Analysts say the Asian demand is still strong but has been fading in recent weeks.  US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation.  Good US production is expected for next year as planted area is expected to increase due to high Cotton prices and the expense of planting Corn.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 116.98 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 617 bales, from 617 bales yesterday.   ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 11590, 11460, and 11390 May, with resistance of 12010, 12140 and 12310 May.

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was sharply higher yesterday and trends started to turn up on the daily charts as futures traded back to strong resistance areas.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average above normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.   ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 137.00, 134.00, and 131.00 May, with resistance at 144.00, 145.00, and 148.00 May.

COFFEE 

General Comments New York and London were lower yesterday as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continued and caused a lot of concern about demand for Coffee in the world in the future.  The US Dollar has been higher in a safety play against other world currencies and is also hurting demand ideas.  The Russian moves into Ukraine caused a big rally in the US Dollar as well.  The logistical and production problems in Brazil and Vietnam are still around but have really improved in Vietnam.  London is showing that the logistics from Vietnam are much better and that Coffee has been moving.  The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year.  Containers are not available in Brazil to ship the Coffee.  Vietnam is getting scattered showers on the coast but dry conditions inland.  The rest of Southeast Asia should get scattered showers in the islands and mostly dry conditions on the mainland.  Production conditions for the next crop in Colombia are not real good.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.989 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 202.34 ct/lb.  Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers.  ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered against delivery of March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 29 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 237.00 and 228.00 May.  Support is at 235.00, 231.00, and 228.00 May, and resistance is at 243.00, 246.00 and 252.00 May.  Trends in London are down with objectives of 2160 and 2100 May.   Support is at 2160, 2120, and 2090 May, and resistance is at 2200, 2220, and 2260 May

SUGAR               

General Comments:  New York and London was higher in nearby months but a little lower in deferred months in reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the potential for the west to cut off Crude Oil exports from Russia.  However, there were news reports that the Biden administration is not real interested in curbing Russian Crude Oil exports and Iran might be close to a nuclear deal that could allow it to resume Crude Oil exports.  News reports indicate that little export activity is taking place from Ukraine or Russia with the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports basically closed.  There was some additional weakness on reports of improved growing conditions for the crops in central-south areas of Brazil but Brazilian mills are producing Ethanol and not Sugar.  The market showed weakness despite a big rally in Crude Oil futures early in its session.  Sugar crops in South Central are still getting a lot of help from the current rains.  Demand ideas for Ethanol are improving on fears that Russia might not be able to sell into the world market, but Iran could return to sell with the approval of the west.  Ideas are that the supplies are available from India and Thailand.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get isolated showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1750, 1740, and 1710 May and resistance is at 1810, 1830, and 1860 May.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 490.00, 486.00, and 482.00 May and resistance is at 500.00, 507.00, and 512.00 May.

COCOA                                                                                 

General Comments New York and London closed lower again yesterday on demand fears as Europe is the leading per capita consumer of Chocolate and demand could drop if the war in Ukraine expands or even if it doesn’t.  A higher US Dollar was also important.  The weather is generally too dry for West Africa and good in Southeast Asia.  Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.  Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around.  Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results.  Trends are starting to turn up in these markets.

Overnight News:  Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.705 million bags.  ICE NY said that 1 contract was delivered against March delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 737 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2510 May.  Support is at 2500, 2450, and 2400 May, with resistance at 2600, 2640, and 2650 May.  Trends in London are down with objectives of 1690, 1650, and 1580 March.  Support is at 1680, 1650, and 1640 May, with resistance at 1710, 1730, and 1760 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322