About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Wheat:  Wheat markets were higher even with a major sell off seen on Friday on reports that Russia had invaded Ukraine and were bombing major cities or near them.  Russia said it would try to negotiate with Ukraine now with the invasion underway and that helped cause the selling.  Mr Biden said that the US would not embargo Crude Oil or agricultural products trade from the world market in another blow to world Wheat prices and then US prices.  Higher prices seem likely down the road.  Mr Putin appears to have decided that Ukraine will be part of Russia should never been allowed to leave the Soviet Union.  Ukraine appears ready to fight but will be badly outnumbered.   Ukrainians have no interest in living under Russian occupation so the war could be deadly and very costly to both sides.  Russia and Ukraine are both major Wheat exporters so the Wheat market could be damaged.   It remains dry in the western Great Plains but some precipitation is expected.  Ideas had been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average or less against previous years.  Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

 

Corn:  Corn closed a little higher after Russia invaded Ukraine.  Futures were limit up early Thursday, then sold off during the day and again on Friday on what appeared to be some producer selling and speculative selling as Russia offered to negotiate with Ukraine.   Oats were sharply lower last week.  The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter and could b enough to keep Corn prices trending higher for now.  The South American agricultural areas got an inch or less of precipitation last week and more showers and rains are expected next week.  Crop losses in South America are becoming more and more of a reality for the Corn market right now.  The Soybeans harvest farther north is being somewhat delayed due to wet weather and this might affect planting of the Safrinha crop in Brazil.  Planted area there as well as in the US is in question due to the high costs and the lack of availability of inputs for growing a successful crop.

Weekly Corn Futures

 Weekly Oats Futures

 

Soybeans and Soybean Meal:  Soybeans were a little lower last week despite the war between the west, Ukraine, and Russia.  The war initially supported Soybeans and world vegetable oils as Russia and Ukraine both export Sunflower Oil.  However, Russia has now offered to talk to Ukraine and the US is not real interested in curbing Russian exports as part of the sanctions so the market was sharply lower on Friday.  Soybean Oil closed higher for the week but Soybean Meal closed lower.  Soybeans closed mostly lower as well as Ukraine and Russia are not suppliers of Soybeans to the world.  Farmers appeared to take advantage of the rally to sell but demand remains strong for US Soybeans from the current crop and the new crop.  The world situation is still tightening as Brazil and Argentina are getting into the harvest of less Soybeans.  Paraguay might import Soybeans this year from Argentina.  Higher Soybeans prices are still possible due to the war and the overall supply and demand situation.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

 

Rice:  Rice was a little higher last week in range trading.  The buying late in the week was due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine but futures only rallied a little bit and did not give the gains back that much on Friday.  It appeared to be a combination of producer and speculative selling.  The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere but not real active anywhere but the business is there and is getting done despite the higher priced offers.  Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal.  Asian prices were firm last week.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

 

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils:  Palm Oil was higher last week on demand ideas and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  Demand in Malaysia could improve soon as Indonesia is expected to keep most Palm Oil at home.  Indonesia is once again making moves to cut the availability of Palm Oil for export as it seeks to keep more at home for bio fuels purposes.  There are still poor production conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia.  Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels.  Canola was much higher along with Chicago and Malaysia and on ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine due to the war.  The market is worried about South American production as well.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

 

Cotton:  Cotton futures closed a little lower last week after trading both sides of unchanged during the week.  The other months were lower on demand worries caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  The war could spread and hurt world demand for Cotton.  Short term trends are sideways.  It’s been a demand market and prices have been sideways waiting for demand to catch up to the price.  Ideas are that demand remains strong for US Cotton.  Analysts say the Asian demand is still strong but has been fading in recent weeks.  US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation.  Good US production is expected for next year as planted area is expected to increase due to high Cotton prices and the expense of planting Corn.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

 

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus:  FCOJ was a little higher last week and trends remain mixed on the daily charts as the market actually closed closer to the lows of the week than the highs.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

 

Coffee:  New York was lower last week and London also closed lower as Russia invaded Ukraine and caused a lot of concern about demand for Coffee in the world in the future.  The Russian moves into Ukraine caused a big rally in the US Dollar as well.  The logistical and production problems in Brazil and Vietnam are still around but have really improved in Vietnam.  London is showing that the logistics from Vietnam are much better and that Coffee has been moving.  The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year.  Containers are not available in Brazil to ship the Coffee.  Vietnam is getting scattered showers on the coast but dry conditions inland.  The rest of Southeast Asia should get scattered showers in the islands and mostly dry conditions on the mainland.  Production conditions for the next crop in Colombia are not real good.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

 

Sugar:  New York was lower last week and London was higher in reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the potential for the west to cut off Crude Oil exports from Russia.  However, there were news reports that the Biden administration is not real interested in curbing Russian Crude Oil exports and Iran might be close to a nuclear deal that could allow it to resume Crude Oil exports.  There was some additional weakness on reports of improved growing conditions for the crops in central-south areas of Brazil but Brazilian mills are producing Ethanol and not Sugar.  The market showed weakness despite a big rally in Crude Oil futures early in its session.  Sugar crops in South Central are still getting a lot of help from the current rains.  Demand ideas for Ethanol are improving on fears that Russia might not be able to sell into the world market, but Iran could return to sell with the approval of the west.  Ideas are that the supplies are available from India and Thailand.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

 

Cocoa:  New York and London closed lower last week on demand fears as Europe is the leading per capita consumer of Chocolate and demand could drop if the war in Ukraine expands or even if it doesn’t.  A higher US Dollar was also important.  The weather is generally too dry for West Africa and good in Southeast Asia.  Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.  Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around.  Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results.  Trends are starting to turn up in these markets.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322