About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON       

General Comments:  Cotton futures closed a little lower last week after trading both sides of unchanged during the week.  The other months were lower on demand worries caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  The war could spread and hurt world demand for Cotton.  Short term trends are sideways.  It’s been a demand market and prices have been sideways waiting for demand to catch up to the price.  Ideas are that demand remains strong for US Cotton.  Analysts say the Asian demand is still strong but has been fading in recent weeks.  US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation.  Good US production is expected for next year as planted area is expected to increase due to high Cotton prices and the expense of planting Corn.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 116.49 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 617 bales, from 617 bales yesterday.   ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 11880, 11770, and 11670 May, with resistance of 12220, 12310 and 12450 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 22, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #033661                                                              Open Interest is   281,705

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   80,380    10,664    46,236    49,025   208,427    85,980     7,495   261,621   272,821:   20,084     8,884

    : Changes from: February 15, 2022          (Change in open interest:     -10,987)         :

    :   -3,156      -157    -3,248    -5,238    -6,646       788       -18   -10,854   -10,069:     -132      -917

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     28.5       3.8      16.4      17.4      74.0      30.5       2.7      92.9      96.8:      7.1       3.2

    : Total Traders:   271          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      130        25        72        52        59        47        17       246       160:

——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was a little higher last week and trends remain mixed on the daily charts as the market actually closed closer to the lows of the week than the highs.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average above normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 134.00, 131.00, and 128.00 May, with resistance at 140.00, 142.00, and 144.00 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 22, 2022

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               :

CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is    14,146                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    2,859    11,407     2,855         0         0     2,123         0        88     1,434        85     1,507 :

: Changes from:     February 15, 2022                                                                          :

:      -62      -298       161         0         0      -331         0        -6         9        22    -1,080 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     20.2      80.6      20.2       0.0       0.0      15.0       0.0       0.6      10.1       0.6      10.7 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    63                     :

:       17        12         7         0         0        15         0         .        17         .         7 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE 

General Comments New York was lower last week and London also closed lower as Russia invaded Ukraine and caused a lot of concern about demand for Coffee in the world in the future.  The Russian moves into Ukraine caused a big rally in the US Dollar as well.  The logistical and production problems in Brazil and Vietnam are still around but have really improved in Vietnam.  London is showing that the logistics from Vietnam are much better and that Coffee has been moving.  The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year.  Containers are not available in Brazil to ship the Coffee.  Vietnam is getting scattered showers on the coast but dry conditions inland.  The rest of Southeast Asia should get scattered showers in the islands and mostly dry conditions on the mainland.  Production conditions for the next crop in Colombia are not real good.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.988 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 205.59 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers.  ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered against delivery of March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 29 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 237.00 and 228.00 May.  Support is at 235.00, 231.00, and 228.00 May, and resistance is at 243.00, 246.00 and 252.00 May.  Trends in London are down with objectives of 2160 and 2100 May.   Support is at 2160, 2120, and 2090 May, and resistance is at 2200, 2220, and 2260 May

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 22, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #083731                                                              Open Interest is   295,770

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   58,716     8,324    83,163    82,786   183,302    59,501    14,276   284,166   289,065:   11,604     6,705

    : Changes from: February 15, 2022          (Change in open interest:      -1,829)         :

    :   -2,397       489     1,264      -135    -3,008        50        -4    -1,218    -1,259:     -611      -570

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     19.9       2.8      28.1      28.0      62.0      20.1       4.8      96.1      97.7:      3.9       2.3

    : Total Traders:   433          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      163        66       126       119       130        46        22       386       298:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 02/22/2022

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long      Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  119,509       50,885        92,958        3,568     4,672         1,339

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          42.6%         77.8%         3.0%      3.9%          1.1%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   138            40            43            8         8            7

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                      Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

  40,477         1,551         5,586     5,295        5,382           6,096

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  33.9%          1.3%          4.7%      4.4%         4.5%            5.1%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    40            4             10        14           8               13

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  6,263        1,925

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  5.2%         1.6%

.

SUGAR               

General Comments:  New York was lower last week and London was higher in reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the potential for the west to cut off Crude Oil exports from Russia.  However, there were news reports that the Biden administration is not real interested in curbing Russian Crude Oil exports and Iran might be close to a nuclear deal that could allow it to resume Crude Oil exports.  There was some additional weakness on reports of improved growing conditions for the crops in central-south areas of Brazil but Brazilian mills are producing Ethanol and not Sugar.  The market showed weakness despite a big rally in Crude Oil futures early in its session.  Sugar crops in South Central are still getting a lot of help from the current rains.  Demand ideas for Ethanol are improving on fears that Russia might not be able to sell into the world market, but Iran could return to sell with the approval of the west.  Ideas are that the supplies are available from India and Thailand.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1750, 1740, and 1710 May and resistance is at 1810, 1830, and 1860 May.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 495.00, 489.00, and 486.00 May and resistance is at 507.00, 511.00, and 518.00 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 22, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #080732                                                              Open Interest is   962,025

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :  123,081    93,356   171,557   319,846   563,664   265,464    71,934   879,948   900,511:   82,077    61,514

    : Changes from: February 15, 2022          (Change in open interest:     -10,815)         :

    :      894    -1,036    -3,500   -10,944    -3,992     1,133       803   -12,416    -7,725:    1,601    -3,090

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     12.8       9.7      17.8      33.2      58.6      27.6       7.5      91.5      93.6:      8.5       6.4

    : Total Traders:   239          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       71        41        70        74        70        40        17       209       175:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 02/22/2022

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  60,333        31,704        44,720        8,198      2,467         1,803

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          52.5%         74.1%         13.6%      4.1%          3.0%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   100            31            32            6          5            6

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                      Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

   7,778         4,569         2,673     2,347        198             867

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  12.9%          7.6%          4.4%      3.9%         0.3%            1.4%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    20            16            14        6            3               6

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  4,963        3,036

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  8.2%         5.0%

COCOA                                                                                 

General Comments New York and London closed lower last week on demand fears as Europe is the leading per capita consumer of Chocolate and demand could drop if the war in Ukraine expands or even if it doesn’t.  A higher US Dollar was also important.  The weather is generally too dry for West Africa and good in Southeast Asia.  Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.  Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around.  Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results.  Trends are starting to turn up in these markets.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.712 million bags.  ICE NY said that 121 contract were delivered against March delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 736 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2510 May.  Support is at 2580, 2550, and 2500 May, with resistance at 2640, 2650, and 2700 May.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1700, 1680, and 1650 May, with resistance at 1760, 1780, and 1800 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 22, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #073732                                                              Open Interest is   313,134

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   48,283    34,759    84,303   105,878   161,692    59,955    24,180   298,419   304,934:   14,716     8,201

    : Changes from: February 15, 2022          (Change in open interest:      -4,538)         :

    :   -3,548     4,456    -2,993     1,162    -4,837      -342      -750    -5,722    -4,125:    1,183      -413

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     15.4      11.1      26.9      33.8      51.6      19.1       7.7      95.3      97.4:      4.7       2.6

    : Total Traders:   219          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       63        65        70        48        40        29        21       177       164:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 02/22/2022

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  327,370       183,071       216,034       24,914     24,111       28,707

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          55.9%         66.0%         7.6%       7.4%          8.8%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   147            52            47           13          8            11

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                       Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long         Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

  35,749         12,464       17,495     11,613        1,293          24,356

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  10.9%          3.8%          5.3%      3.5%          0.4%            7.4%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    24            24            17        15            6               16

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  1,465        2,910

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  0.4%         0.9%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322