Putin Bears Down On Kyev. The Corn & Ethanol Report 02/25/2022

We start off the day with Fed Waller speech at 7:00 A.M., Personal Income MoM (Jan), Personal Spending MoM (Jan), Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jan), Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation  MoM (Jan),

PCE Price Index MoM & YoY (Jan), Non-Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (Jan), Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM (Jan) and Core Price Index MoM & YoY (Jan) at 7:30 A.M., Pending Home Sales MoM & YoY (Jan), Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Feb), Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations Final (Feb), Michigan Consumer Expectations Final (Feb), Michigan Current Conditions Final and Michigan Inflation Expectations Final (Feb) at 9:00 A.M., NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 2.25 yrs. at 9:30 A.M., Fed Monetary Policy Report at 10:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count (25/Feb) at 12:00 P.M. and Cattle on Feed at 2:00 P.M.

On the corn Front the corn had quite the rollercoaster ride as the market followed strength in the wheat which The Ukraine is the breadbasket of the Black Sea and was of the former USSR. They are also sitting on a natural gas reserve. Exporting and the flow of trade in the Black Sea is seeing the risk of shipping has gone up dramatically. At the height of the rally yesterday farmers and producers started selling locking in these prices, the funds started profit taking and there was a headline of improved weather conditions in South America. I am still not sure while we are down again this hard. But extreme times leads to extreme futures markets that can employ extreme swings and volatility on a single headline. In the overnight electronic session the March corn is currently trading at 678 ¾ which is 16 ¾ cents lower. The trading range has been 707 to 666 ¾.

On the Ethanol Front ethanol supply and production both moved modestly higher last week.  The EIA said production averaged 1.024 barrels a day, up 15,000 on the week and 366,000 on the year. While supply of 25,507 million barrels was an increase from the previous week, winter weather limiting demand in parts of the regions, and 27,772 million more than last year. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.

On the Crude Oil Front the wild ride continues as Russia plans to go back to the iron fist and iron curtain days. Can someone call the 1980’s and get our foreign policy back? Russia went from no threat to a huge threat as the political winds blow. It is a different world than it was a year and a half ago. Today it looks like the markets are concerned and seeing this war will limit demand but could skyrocket by the close or even Sunday night’s reopen. In the overnight electronic session the April crude oil is currently trading at 9202 which is 79 points lower. The trading range has been 9564 to 9182.

On the Natural gas Front the market is on rollercoaster mode as well. With the closing of Anwar, Keystone Pipeline XL and the attack on pipelines giving Putin more customers as the U.S. handed to Russia on a platter and to boot waiving sanctions on the Nord Stream pipeline to give Russia control of European energy. These are wrong turns at every intersection. Not only does the Ukraine is a player in corn and wheat, they are sitting on a huge untapped natural gas reserve that wants to expand his evil empire monopoly. In the overnight electronic session the April natural gas is currently trading at 4.539 which is 0.102 lower. The trading range has been 4.716 to 4.466. The wild ride will continue….. So Buckle Up Your Chinstrap!

Have A Great Trading Day!

Dan Flynn

Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374