Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We start off the day with MBA Mortgage Market Index (18/Feb), MBA Mortgage refinance Index (18/Feb), MBA Purchase Index (18/Feb), MBA Mortgage Applications (18/Feb) and MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 6:00 A.M., Redbook YoY (19/Feb) at 7:55 A.M., @-year FRN Auction at 10:30 A.M., 5-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., Milk Production at 2:00 P.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.
On the Corn Front the market is easing off the fear of Russian aggression as the markets are trying to price in Putin’s, “Take no prisoners” approach as the markets will not be in the backseat as negotiations continue to avert war that would not have happened in 2021. The entire grain complex was higher except for oats, the market remains focused on the movement of Russian troops as this cold war has been revisited in 2022. Beneficial rains have been forecasted for Argentina but winter ice and snow with changing temperatures of freezing and above freezing are cause for concern for flooding as the Kankakee and Illinois Rivers need to move product to the Mighty Mississippi but it looks like transportation will be furthered hampered with transportation logistics. These situations will only cause more inflation and higher prices as we do not know if the black Sea can move product as the aggression continues. In the overnight electronic session the March corn is currently trading at 672 which is 2 ¾ cents lower. The trading range has been 674 ½ to 669 ¼.
On the Ethanol Front for the moment has taken a backseat as this Russian situation dominates the headlines and there are no clear results how to move forward from here, but you can bank on any commodity that will increase supply to the energy sector will not be overlooked. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.
On the Crude Oil Front the market is in quiet mode as we wait for another headline out of the Ukraine and gear up for the API Energy Stocks which could put more risk on trade as we await Putin’s next move will effect trade for the free world. In the overnight electronic session the April crude oil is currently trading at 9184 which is 7 tics higher. The trading range has been 9237 to 9064.
On the Natural Gas Front the march natural gas options expire today with the futures expiring tomorrow. We are still in winter with limited supplies as other European countries try not to rely on Putin for a source of energy and is hoping to get another trade partner as independence is golden. Remember the cold war Putin would not think twice to turning off the spigot to Germany and Italy to name a couple European countries he wants to have a hold on these countries with zero free trade. In the overnight electronic session the April natural gas is currently trading at 4.544 which is o.833 higher. The trading range has been 5.577 to 4.437.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Dan FlynnQuestions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374