About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher last week on reports of some fighting in the Donbas region of Ukraine that sits along the Russian border and is already under Russian control. The US said again that Russia could invade at any time and maybe later this week and that Putin has given the army orders to invade and take the Ukraine state back into the orbit of Russia. It said it had not seen Russian troops pull back from the Ukrainian border although Russia insisted some of its troops had done so. The US says that Russia has actually increased the number of army men near the frontier. Ukrainians have no interest in living under Russian occupation so the war could be deadly and very costly to both sides. Russia might have jammed the internet inside Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine are both major Wheat exporters so the Wheat market could be damaged. It remains dry in the western Great Plains but some precipitation is expected. Ideas had been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average or less against previous years. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal. Nigeria bought 120,000 tons of US HRW Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 814 and 852 March. Support is at 793, 787, and 773 March, with resistance at 814, 824, and 831 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 880 March. Support is at 830, 813, and 797 March, with resistance at 850, 871, and 885 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 957, 940, and 937 March, and resistance is at 972, 979, and 991 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice rebounded from lower prices to start the week and then spent the rest of the week developing a trading range. Futures still closed lower for the week. The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere but not real active anywhere. Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal. The cash market is reported to be relatively strong in moderately active trading as prices have held firm. Ideas are that there is very little Rice left in producer control. Asian prices were firm last week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1474, 1463, and 1461 March and resistance is at 1500, 1525, and 1552 March.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher and held to the range in reaction to the South American production estimates that have been dropping due to hot and dry weather in Argentina, Paraguay, and southern Brazil. The South American agricultural areas got an inch or less of precipitation last week and are now turning hot and dry again. Crop losses are becoming more and more of a reality for the Corn market right now. The Soybeans harvest farther north is being somewhat delayed due to wet weather and this might affect planting of the Safrinha crop in Brazil. Planted area there as well as in the US is in question due to the high costs and the lack of availability of inputs for growing a successful crop.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 648, 636, and 625 March, and resistance is at 657, 663, and 668 March. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 695, 658, and 604 March. Support is at 694, 677, and 666 March, and resistance is at 715, 732, and 737 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher last week on reduced production estimates from private analysts in Brazil and Argentina. The products closed mixed, with Soybean Oil higher and Soybean Meal lower. Soybean Oil found support from news that India is in the process of buying 100,000 tons or more of US Sobean Oil instead on in South America due to production and price. News on Wednesday that Paraguay might have to buy Soybeans from Argentina as it did not grow enough on its own due to the drought was also supportive. It is still possible that the market topped out on Thursday at least for the short term. The market had been supported on what appeared to be speculative buying in response the South American weather. The South American weather remained difficult. Mostly hot and dry conditions are expected for the next week after a few showers in most areas last week. It will stay very wet in central and northern parts of Brazil.
Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US new crop Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1577, 1542, and 1536 March, and resistance is at 1613, 1624, and 1633 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 438.00, 431.00, and 420.00 March, and resistance is at 455.00 462.00, and 475.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 6990 and 7410 March. Support is at 6660, 6580, and 6440 March, with resistance at 6860, 6990, and 7120 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week on good export demand news and a rally in Chicago Soybean Oil. It was higher today on demand ideas and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Demand in Malaysia could improve soon as Indonesia is expected to keep most Palm Oil at home. Indonesia is once again making moves to cut the availability of Palm Oil for export as it seeks to keep more at home for bio fuels purposes. There are still poor production conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia. Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels. Canola was mostly higher along with Chicago, but prices have held inside a trading range since the start of November. Chart trends are mixed but the market held important support areas on the daily and weekly charts.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 972.00 and 937.00 March. Support is at 998.00, 993.00, and 977.00 March, with resistance at 1018.00, 1027.00, and 1033.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 5340, 5300, and 5240 May, with resistance at 5570, 5590, and 5650 May.

DJ Canadian Oilseeds Monthly Crush – Feb 2
Canadian oilseeds monthly crush – Jan. 2022
WINNIPEG–Crushing statistics of major oilseeds in Canada
for the month of January 2022, reported by Statistics Canada are
as follows:
Figures are in metric tons.
Year Ago 2021/22 2020/21
Canola Jan 2022 Jan 2021 To Date To Date
Seed crushed 651,282 915,553 4,453,580 5,285,242
Oil produced 271,629 394,315 1,859,130 2,291,995
Meal produced 386,822 519,645 2,637,975 3,006,033
Soybeans
Seed crushed 163,540 141,861 907,013 878,695
Oil produced 30,321 26,733 167,379 161,435
Meal produced 126,796 111,945 698,697 681,685
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mixed precipitation. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February 130 Mar 265 Mar 150 Mar 150 Mar
March 110 Mar 255 Mar 150 Mar 145 Mar
April 105 May 245 May 145 May 125 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 17
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1009.20 0.00 Mar. 2022 up 6.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 1047.70 45.00 May 2022 up 2.00
Basis: Vancouver 1077.70 75.00 May 2022 up 2.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 22
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1622.50 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1477.50 +42.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1332.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1625.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1480.00 +42.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1335.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1565.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1460.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 6,370.00 +170.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 610.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1845)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 22
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 177,069 lots, or 1.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-22 6,040 6,119 6,010 6,083 6,064 6,063 -1 64,313 28,128
May-22 6,094 6,152 6,031 6,087 6,105 6,078 -27 40,012 35,766
Jul-22 6,068 6,125 6,019 6,065 6,097 6,051 -46 61,365 75,315
Sep-22 6,005 6,061 5,955 5,991 6,032 5,988 -44 2,202 4,940
Nov-22 5,932 5,978 5,888 5,925 5,962 5,928 -34 9,003 21,172
Jan-23 5,875 5,934 5,856 5,872 5,917 5,886 -31 174 425
Corn
Turnover: 850,244 lots, or 2.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-22 2,680 2,695 2,657 2,688 2,687 2,684 -3 7,543 44,201
May-22 2,760 2,793 2,733 2,785 2,769 2,770 1 650,873 1,178,048
Jul-22 2,789 2,815 2,757 2,810 2,791 2,795 4 86,978 192,675
Sep-22 2,791 2,816 2,767 2,814 2,796 2,798 2 71,907 167,623
Nov-22 2,751 2,775 2,737 2,773 2,753 2,762 9 30,207 48,740
Jan-23 2,714 2,736 2,702 2,736 2,714 2,721 7 2,736 18,032
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,741,027 lots, or 6.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-22 4,157 4,307 4,154 4,307 4,083 4,215 132 14,021 7,767
May-22 3,815 3,885 3,806 3,877 3,787 3,844 57 1,309,910 1,402,037
Jul-22 3,796 3,864 3,792 3,854 3,775 3,826 51 88,624 273,152
Aug-22 3,805 3,861 3,800 3,857 3,780 3,829 49 31,700 190,619
Sep-22 3,753 3,808 3,753 3,797 3,741 3,777 36 258,696 605,708
Nov-22 3,673 3,724 3,673 3,720 3,669 3,702 33 9,336 76,037
Dec-22 3,604 3,660 3,602 3,659 3,603 3,627 24 10,211 18,159
Jan-23 3,520 3,574 3,517 3,569 3,516 3,548 32 18,529 50,797
Palm Oil
Turnover: 809,582 lots, or 86.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-22 11,930 12,388 11,884 12,368 11,832 12,116 284 2,780 6,032
Apr-22 11,198 11,634 11,160 11,584 11,096 11,440 344 36,013 68,348
May-22 10,546 10,808 10,490 10,770 10,480 10,674 194 693,345 529,205
Jun-22 10,196 10,442 10,156 10,416 10,126 10,308 182 11,576 76,506
Jul-22 9,900 10,126 9,856 10,084 9,860 10,016 156 13,347 44,268
Aug-22 9,664 9,878 9,626 9,828 9,628 9,776 148 6,590 14,953
Sep-22 9,460 9,628 9,400 9,574 9,390 9,536 146 45,185 47,800
Oct-22 9,230 9,392 9,230 9,352 9,254 9,314 60 9 63
Nov-22 9,094 9,284 9,092 9,284 9,110 9,198 88 18 482
Dec-22 9,020 9,178 9,020 9,178 9,010 9,078 68 8 64
Jan-23 8,888 9,060 8,852 9,010 8,850 8,932 82 704 1,586
Feb-23 8,918 8,940 8,896 8,900 8,820 8,910 90 7 6
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 777,638 lots, or 79.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-22 10,622 10,840 10,622 10,682 10,616 10,728 112 368 1,640
May-22 10,192 10,352 10,142 10,216 10,166 10,260 94 626,741 499,150
Jul-22 10,020 10,194 10,008 10,090 10,004 10,114 110 31,110 139,702
Aug-22 9,978 10,134 9,956 10,036 9,978 10,058 80 9,147 63,268
Sep-22 9,948 10,082 9,904 9,978 9,924 10,006 82 81,902 106,996
Nov-22 9,844 9,998 9,818 9,902 9,846 9,922 76 18,810 20,479
Dec-22 9,806 9,942 9,774 9,836 9,796 9,880 84 8,499 5,265
Jan-23 9,752 9,880 9,732 9,788 9,766 9,838 72 1,061 1,552
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. The information and data in this report were obtained sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures.
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322