About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON        

General Comments:  Cotton futures were near unchanged but have been drifting lower on demand concerns as the export sales have been decreasing in recent weeks.  USDA cut export demand and increased ending stocks for the US last week.  It’s been a demand market and futures have been correcting lower over the last few sessions in search of new demand.  Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future.  US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation.  Good US production is expected for next year as planted area is expected to increase due to high Cotton prices and the expense of planting Corn.  Chart trends are still mostly up in this market.

Overnight News:  The Delta will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.  The Southeast should get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures.  Texas will have isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 118.97 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 617 bales, from 617 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 120.00 and 115.00 March.  Support is at 120.80, 119.70, and 118.40 March, with resistance of 125.80, 127.40 and 128.80 March.

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ was near unchanged in consolidation trading.  Ideas are that the lost production as shown by USDA last week was already in the market.  Florida Mutual said last week that FCOJ inventories are down 30% from a year ago, and this just highlights the tight supply even more.  There are moderate weather forecasts for the coming week. The trends are down on the daily charts.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest.  Mexico is rated in good condition.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 132.00 and 115.00 March.  Support is at 133.00, 130.00, and 127.00 March, with resistance at 139.00, 141.00, and 149.00 March.

COFFEE   

General Comments:  New York and London closed higher on tight supplies available nearby in the marketplace but ideas continue that the next crops in Brazil and Vietnam are experiencing good growing conditions.  Vietnamese producers have been selling and Brazil producers have sold some coffee for the next crop.  The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year.  Big rains more recently in some Brazil growing areas have hurt cherry formation as well.  The logistical situation in both Vietnam and Brazil has eased in recent weeks but is still considered difficult and expensive to manage.  Vietnam is getting scattered showers on the coast but dry conditions inland.  The rest of Southeast Asia should get scattered showers in the islands and mostly dry conditions on the mainland.  Production conditions for the next crop in Colombia are not good due to too much rain.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.027 million bags.  GCA stocks are now 5.795 million bags, from 5.833 million last month.   The ICO daily average price is now 214.78 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures.  Central America will get mostly dry conditions.  Vietnam will see scattered showers near the coast and mostly dry conditions inland.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 245.00, 242.00, and 240.00 March, and resistance is at 254.00, 260.00 and 263.00 March.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 2290 March.   Support is at 2250, 2220, and 2200 March, and resistance is at 2300, 2360, and 2380 March[JS1] .

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York and London were a little lower in consolidation trading as ideas of a production surplus were heard.  There was no real reaction to news that Brazil mills produced only ethanol in the second half of January.  There have been reports of improved growing conditions for the crops in central-south areas of Brazil.  Hot and dry weather is expected for southern areas this week to stress crops again.  Ideas are that the supplies are available from India and Thailand as harvests there are off to a good start and reports indicate that India has been selling. Demand is still thought to be good, but supplies could increase as less ethanol is produced.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1750, 1740, and 1710 May and resistance is at 1820, 1860, and 1900 May.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 477.00, 472.00, and 466.00 May and resistance is at 490.00, 494.00, and 496.00 May.

COCOA                                                                                   

General Comments:  Both markets closed a little lower on follow through selling despite ideas of bad weather in Ivory Coast.  The weather is generally good for Southeast Asia but some producers in West Africa are worried about the dry weather that has been noted for the last couple of weeks.  Ideas are that demand will continue to improve.  Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting deteriorating weather as it is now mostly sunny and dry.  Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.755 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2620, 2590, and 2530 March, with resistance at 2740, 2790, and 2800 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1740, 1710, and 1700 March, with resistance at 1790, 1810, and 1830 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322