USDA & WASDE Day! The Corn & Ethanol Report 02/09/2022

We kickoff the day with MBA Mortgage Market Index (o4/Feb), MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (04/Feb), MBA Purchase Index (04/Feb), MBA Mortgage Applications (04/Feb) and MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (04/Feb) at 6:00 A.M., Wholesale Inventories MoM (Dec) at 9:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., Fed Meester Speech, USDA and WASDE at 11:00 A.M., 10-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M. and dairy Product Sales at 2:00 P.M.

On the Corn Front we head not a report in February which is usually a non-event but I with many other traders believe that this one will have some meaning. We did see a long liquidation ahead of the reports. Corn bulls bailed ahead of the USDA and Conab’s South America crop update. In the overnight electronic session the March corn is currently trading at 635 ¾ which is 3 ½ cents higher. The trading range has been 638 ½ to 630 ½.

On the Ethanol Front the EIA increased its forecast for 2022 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Feb 8. The forecast for 2023 ethanol production was maintained. The EIA currently expects US ethanol production to average 1.03 million barrels per day this year, up from 1.02 million barrels per day in January. Ethanol production averaged 980,000 million bpd in 2021. There were no trades or bid/ask or open interest in ethanol futures.

On the Crude Oil Front wildly bullish fundamentals are being tested by the murky waters of big government and geo-political risk globally. OPEC+ is waiting to see if the US is serious for letting Iran export crude. Government mandates got us into this game and the one’s that put us here want to have their cake and eat it too. Last night’s API showed draws across the board with crude down -2.025M, gasoline-1.138M, distillates -2.203M and Cushing -2.502M. In the overnight electronic session the March crude oil is currently trading at 8948 which is 12 points higher. The trading range has been 8989 to 8841.

On the Natural Gas Front warming temperatures really put the market in retreat early. We could have a washout today ahead of tomorrow’s EIA Gas Storage report. In the overnight electronic session the March natural gas is currently trading at 4.049 which is 0.199 lower. The trading range has been 4.259 to 4.030.

Have A Great Trading Day!

Dan Flynn

Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374