About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON        

General Comments:  Cotton futures closed higher on Friday and made new highs for the move.  Traders are monitoring the Russia-Ukraine situation as any invasion of Ukraine by Russia could mean an end or at least a severe restriction to energy exports from Russia.  Concerns about an invasion seem to be receding at this time.  That would hurt polyester pricing and help Cotton demand.  It’s been a demand market and futures have been correcting lower over the last few sessions in search of new demand.  Ideas are that demand remains strong for US Cotton even with the weaker export sales reports over the last couple of weeks.  Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future.  US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation.  Good US production is expected for next year as planted area is expected to increase due to high Cotton prices and the expense of planting Corn.  Chart trends are still mostly up in this market.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and both areas will get near to below normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 120.12 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 617 bales, from 617 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 12010, 12080, and 11930 March, with resistance of 12560, 12680 and 12960 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 25, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #033661                                                              Open Interest is   313,698

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   85,890    10,815    71,332    53,033   214,110    82,131     8,026   292,386   304,284:   21,312     9,415

    :                                                                                         :

    : Changes from: January 18, 2022           (Change in open interest:       8,920)         :

    :   -1,308       412     7,704     3,980      -480      -430     1,021     9,946     8,658:   -1,026       262

    :                                                                                         :

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     27.4       3.4      22.7      16.9      68.3      26.2       2.6      93.2      97.0:      6.8       3.0

    :                                                                                         :

    : Total Traders:   300          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      137        39        89        57        64        50        18       276       183:

——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ was sharply lower to limit down as forecasts called for very cold temperatures in Florida.  The market had rallied on freeze fears but those fears eased on Friday and futures were lower.  It has been cold, but it has not been cold enough for long enough to do more than damage some leaves on the trees.  The trends are mixed on the daily charts on the reduced Florida Oranges production estimates seen recently.   USDA cut its Oranges production estimate for Florida, but increased production when compared to the last report for the whole of the US.  Production overall remains less on a year to year basis.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest.  Mexico is rated in good condition.

Overnight News:  Florida should get isolated showers.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.  \

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 150.00, 146.00, and 142.00 March, with resistance at 157.00, 160.00, and 164.00 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 25, 2022

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               :

CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is    15,935                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    2,954    11,780     2,038         0         0     3,694         0        97     1,396       341     2,522 :

:                                                                                                              :

: Changes from:     January 18, 2022                                                                           :

:     -439       393       -20         0         0       707         0        71       -25        34       307 :

:                                                                                                              :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     18.5      73.9      12.8       0.0       0.0      23.2       0.0       0.6       8.8       2.1      15.8 :

:                                                                                                              :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    70                     :

:       13        16         5         0         0        21         0         .        19         4         6 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE   

General Comments:  New York and London closed higher with most of the gains in New York as inflation came into the market again.  The fundamentals have not really changed.  Ideas continue that the next crop in Brazil is experiencing good growing conditions.  Vietnamese producers have been selling so differentials have gone down in that market and it now pays to send Coffee to London and the rest of Europe.  The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year.  Big rains more recently in some Brazil growing areas have hurt cherry formation as well.  Containers are not available in Vietnam or in Brazil to ship the Coffee, but logistical situation in both countries has eased in recent weeks.  Brazil producers have sold most of the current year crop and are forward pricing for next year.  Vietnam producers are also selling and some of the Robusta is going to the exchange in London as differentials have weakened.  Vietnam is getting scattered showers on the coast but dry conditions inland.  The rest of Southeast Asia should get scattered showers in the islands and mostly dry conditions on the mainland.  Production conditions for the next crop in Colombia are not good.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are a little lower today at 1.287 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 203.15 ct/lb.  Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get mostly dry conditions.  Vietnam will see scattered showers near the coast and mostly dry conditions inland.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 230.00, 227.00, and 225.00 March, and resistance is at 238.00, 241.00 and 246.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 2130 and 2070 March.   Support is at 2160, 2140, and 2110 March, and resistance is at 2210, 2230, and 2250 March[JS1] .

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 25, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #083731                                                              Open Interest is   338,615

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   54,738     7,716   116,038    92,671   189,366    63,775    17,613   327,222   330,734:   11,393     7,881

    :                                                                                         :

    : Changes from: January 18, 2022           (Change in open interest:       8,869)         :

    :     -381       453     6,757       555     1,060     1,825       602     8,756     8,873:      114        -3

    :                                                                                         :

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     16.2       2.3      34.3      27.4      55.9      18.8       5.2      96.6      97.7:      3.4       2.3

    :                                                                                         :

    : Total Traders:   425          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      153        60       132       125       138        46        21       382       308:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options 

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 01/25/2022

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long      Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  135,733       59,111        90,953        3,469     11,558        679

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          43.5%         67.0%         2.6%      8.5%          0.5%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   142            45            46            9         7            9

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                      Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

  37,320         2,935         6,000     3,986        2,338          19,279

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  27.5%          2.2%          4.4%      2.9%         1.7%           14.2%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    36            7             12        18           7               16

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  5,889        1,991

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  4.3%         1.5%

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York and London were a little lower again Friday and lower for the week on good growing conditions from Brazil.  Support comes from ideas that the market tries to ensure that there will be enough White Sugar production and imports from India and Thailand.  A stronger US Dollar hurt bullish demand ideas.  Ideas are that stronger Crude Oil prices imply stronger ethanol prices for more ethanol production and less Sugar production in Brazil and those ideas help keep Sugar prices supported.  Crude Oil closed higher again yesterday.  There have been reports of improved growing conditions for the crops in central-south areas of Brazil.  Showers will continue into much of this week and crops should benefit from the return of moisture to the region.  Ideas are that the supplies are available from India and Thailand as harvests there are off to a good start but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1810 and 1750 March.  Support is at 1800, 1760, and 1750 March and resistance is at 1850, 1860, and 1890 March.  Trends in London are down with objectives of 489.00 March.  Support is at 492.00, 487.00, and 477.00 March and resistance is at 501.00, 508.00, and 516.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 25, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #080732                                                              Open Interest is 1,023,309

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :  116,936    56,688   212,764   354,959   614,135   259,179    83,063   943,838   966,651:   79,472    56,659

    :                                                                                         :

    : Changes from: January 18, 2022           (Change in open interest:     -12,524)         :

    :   -2,115   -15,696    -3,445   -11,073    13,901     2,916      -705   -13,718    -5,946:    1,194    -6,578

    :                                                                                         :

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     11.4       5.5      20.8      34.7      60.0      25.3       8.1      92.2      94.5:      7.8       5.5

    :                                                                                         :

    : Total Traders:   251          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       82        36        86        79        73        42        19       230       190:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures 

Commitments of Traders-All Futures

Combined Positions as of 01/25/2022

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long           Short       Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  63,974        34,027          53,265      7,903      1,732         2,132

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          53.2%          83.3%        12.4%      2.7%          3.3%

Number of Traders in Each Category

      90          31             36           7          4            6

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                      Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

   9,724         1,280         2,103     2,049        244             819

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  15.2%          2.0%          3.3%      3.2%         0.4%            1.3%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    21            4             9         7            3               7

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  5,217        2,399

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  8.2%         3.7%

COCOA                                                                                   

General Comments:  Both markets closed lower last week in part on a very strong US Dollar.  New York closed much lower than London.  The weather is generally good for West Africa and Southeast Asia.  Ideas are that demand will continue to improve and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.  Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around.  Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.545 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2390, and 2300 March.  Support is at 2440, 2400, and 2380 March, with resistance at 2500, 2570, and 2610 March.  Trends in London are down with objectives of 1670 March.  Support is at 1680, 1650, and 1620 March, with resistance at 1710, 1730, and 1750 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 25, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #073732                                                              Open Interest is   295,133

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   33,902    28,294    79,716   103,096   143,207    64,680    34,420   281,394   285,638:   13,739     9,495

    :                                                                                         :

    : Changes from: January 18, 2022           (Change in open interest:       3,068)         :

    :    2,645     1,768     3,152    -5,850    -3,805     1,957     2,093     1,904     3,207:    1,164      -138

    :                                                                                         :

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     11.5       9.6      27.0      34.9      48.5      21.9      11.7      95.3      96.8:      4.7       3.2

    :                                                                                         :

    : Total Traders:   211          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       51        67        77        47        36        31        21       178       160:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options 

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 01/25/2022

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  312,441       177,263       232,143       40,811     11,923        8,749

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          56.7%         74.3%         13.1%      3.8%          2.8%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   138            48            41           13          6            10

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                      Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

  33,365         14,407       13,724     8,806        971            27,709

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  10.7%          4.6%          4.4%      2.8%         0.3%            8.9%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    25            20            14        12           8               17

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  2,014        2,815

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  0.6%         0.9%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322