Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Grains Report 01/31/2022
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets closed higher on Friday and mixed for the week as tensions between the west and Russia eased and as Mr Putin said he would not do anything during the Olympics. The Dollar moved to new highs for the move and could now trade to 100.00 on the March Dollar Index. Russia has been escalating the crisis to test US and NATO resolve and a war is now more likely or at least some severe sanctions that could end the export programs for both Russia and Ukraine. The US and Russia are talking and Russia has said it will not do anything during the Olympics. The weekly export sales report was strong and featured a marketing year high in sales. It remains dry in the western Great Plains. Ideas had been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average or less against previous years. Offer volumes are down in Europe. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production. The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia has announced sales quotas. Australian crop quality should be diminished. North Africa is very dry.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should trend from below to above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will trend from below to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal in the west and below normal in the east.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 774, 771 and 758 March, with resistance at 803, 824, and 831 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 790, 786, and 775 March, with resistance at 819, 829, and 849 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 875 and 833 March. Support is at 902, 885, and 871 March, and resistance is at 930, 945, and 965 March.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 25, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 498,029
: Positions :
: 48,532 81,533 154,154 74,337 171,414 184,908 46,686 461,932 453,787: 36,097 44,242
: :
: Changes from: January 18, 2022 (Change in open interest: 29,251) :
: 9,315 172 13,004 -1,402 9,166 5,685 5,283 26,603 27,625: 2,648 1,626
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.7 16.4 31.0 14.9 34.4 37.1 9.4 92.8 91.1: 7.2 8.9
: :
: Total Traders: 367 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 106 86 135 77 102 50 28 305 292:
——————————————————————————————————————-
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 25, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 242,083
: Positions :
: 42,545 26,770 60,224 41,498 114,130 71,808 15,753 216,074 216,877: 26,009 25,206
: :
: Changes from: January 18, 2022 (Change in open interest: 2,211) :
: -2,232 -6,183 5,424 -2,797 -1 2,285 1,181 2,680 421: -468 1,791
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.6 11.1 24.9 17.1 47.1 29.7 6.5 89.3 89.6: 10.7 10.4
: :
: Total Traders: 248 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 69 42 74 62 78 36 19 201 187:
——————————————————————————————————————-
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 25, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 72,609 :
: Positions :
: 32,935 46,261 2,992 1,043 807 6,060 2,720 2,871 5,934 2,121 3,939 :
: :
: Changes from: January 18, 2022 :
: 545 2,471 -192 -164 74 -806 -290 561 336 -438 -793 :
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 45.4 63.7 4.1 1.4 1.1 8.3 3.7 4.0 8.2 2.9 5.4 :
: :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 108 :
: 51 44 5 . 5 13 . 4 15 8 10 :
—————————————————————————————————————-
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 25, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE 50 Metric Tons :
CFTC Code #00160F Open Interest is 13,139 :
: Positions :
: 4,608 8,398 375 1,200 55 6,765 2,700 0 695 35 325 :
: :
: Changes from: January 18, 2022 :
: 22 418 0 0 0 500 0 -200 215 35 109 :
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 35.1 63.9 2.9 9.1 0.4 51.5 20.5 0.0 5.3 0.3 2.5 :
: :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 23 :
: 4 13 . . . . . 0 . . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-
RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed slightly higher on Friday after pushing lower early in the session. Trends have turned mixed on the daily charts. The US Dollar moved sharply higher last week and made new highs for the move. It has the potential to trade to 100.00 on the Dollar Index. The weekly export sales report showed much higher sales levels than previous weeks. Futures and cash market trading have been quiet until now and the cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere. Many producers are not interested in selling but some are selling the current crop and generating some needed revenue. Producer sales are report4ed to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal. Mills are showing more interest in the market as previously bought supplies start to run low. The cash market is reported to be relatively strong as prices have held firm and as activity increases.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1483, 1471, and 1466 March and resistance is at 1510, 1523, and 1536 March.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 25, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 8,412 :
: Positions :
: 3,872 6,499 291 0 0 1,320 467 0 578 579 66 :
: :
: Changes from: January 18, 2022 :
: -350 766 -2 0 0 441 0 0 169 70 -122 :
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 46.0 77.3 3.5 0.0 0.0 15.7 5.6 0.0 6.9 6.9 0.8 :
: :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 49 :
: 11 17 . 0 0 10 . 0 7 4 4 :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher on Friday and for the week as the inflation market returned and as the market took a look at South American crop losses. The weekly export sales report showed strong demand for US Corn. The markets heard about potential improvement in growing conditions in South America but there have already been estimates of losses to Corn in both Argentina and Brazil,. Central Argentina got the best rains again and the other areas were still dry or got significantly less rain. Showers are now predicted for southern Brazil and the rest of Argentina and Paraguay and the situation there should become more stable. Northern Brazil is expected to be drier to help with conditions there. Ukraine is a major Corn and Wheat ex[porter and the market fears that a disruption in the export pace from there could mean more demand here. Russia has eased tensions by indicating that nothing will happen until the Olympics end but the market is still watching.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 640, 647, and 656 March. Support is at 628, 615, and 611 March, and resistance is at 642, 648, and 656 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 698, 729, and 742 March. Support is at 660, 645, and 640 March, and resistance is at 680, 695, and 709 March.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 25, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,903,794
: Positions :
: 356,323 79,802 387,904 457,052 1,138,808 511,570 69,180 1,712,849 1,675,693: 190,946 228,101
: :
: Changes from: January 18, 2022 (Change in open interest: 75,478) :
: 47,066 -4,627 25,985 -6,951 42,260 7,403 7,169 73,503 70,788: 1,975 4,690
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.7 4.2 20.4 24.0 59.8 26.9 3.6 90.0 88.0: 10.0 12.0
: :
: Total Traders: 838 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 188 110 181 349 426 53 25 681 663:
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed higher on Friday and much higher for the week on news that Brazil state Ag agencies had drastically cut back their production estimate for Soybeans in the states. The states were Mato Grosso do Sul on Wednesday and Parana on Thursday. Yields were reduced and production was reduced by more than 5%. Mato Grosso do Sul did the same thing yesterday. The data implies total Brazil production at 125 million tons to 127 million tons according to at least some analysts here in the US. Production ideas at the beginning of the crop season were closer to 150 million tons for Brazil so the cuts are drastic and imply much more demand for US Soybeans down the road. Rains returned to dry soils in South America last week and are likely to continue this week. However, the benefits will be felt mostly in central Argentina and perhaps southern Argentina. Showers are forecast for southern Brazil, Paraguay, and much of Argentina late this week. There are ideas of better demand for US Soybeans due to the crop losses that Brazil and Argentina have already incurred due to the drought and due in part to the situation between Ukraine and Russia that could hurt agricultural and energy exports from both countries. New demand is now thought to come from China as rumors of new business with that destination hit the floor. China has now been a buyer for two days this week. Trends are up on the daily and weekly charts.
Overnight News: China bought 129,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1486 March. Support is at 1442, 1430, and 1414 March, and resistance is at 1482, 1494, and 1506 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 417.00 and 444.00 March. Support is at 405.00, 396.00, and 388.00 March, and resistance is at 415.00 420.00, and 426.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 6540 and 6790 March. Support is at 6300, 6180, and 6120 March, with resistance at 6500, 6620, and 6740 March.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 25, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 883,842
: Positions :
: 132,530 42,879 196,709 254,068 497,861 240,542 49,428 823,850 786,877: 59,993 96,965
: :
: Changes from: January 18, 2022 (Change in open interest: 42,369) :
: 15,486 -2,848 15,690 9,460 15,398 -2,401 11,748 38,234 39,987: 4,134 2,382
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.0 4.9 22.3 28.7 56.3 27.2 5.6 93.2 89.0: 6.8 11.0
: :
: Total Traders: 606 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 166 100 169 189 252 52 23 479 485:
——————————————————————————————————————-
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 25, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 455,930
: Positions :
: 61,008 33,470 98,717 123,099 281,179 135,089 15,619 417,913 428,984: 38,017 26,946
: :
: Changes from: January 18, 2022 (Change in open interest: 21,131) :
: 5,567 -10,015 12,890 -3,092 14,556 2,508 2,040 17,874 19,471: 3,258 1,660
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.4 7.3 21.7 27.0 61.7 29.6 3.4 91.7 94.1: 8.3 5.9
: :
: Total Traders: 286 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 73 48 86 81 89 40 22 243 210:
——————————————————————————————————————-
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 25, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 451,424
: Positions :
: 60,106 21,997 89,265 111,914 300,705 136,282 13,987 397,568 425,955: 53,856 25,469
: :
: Changes from: January 18, 2022 (Change in open interest: -7,199) :
: -6,996 -4,776 2,279 828 -5,547 377 2,948 -3,511 -5,096: -3,688 -2,103
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.3 4.9 19.8 24.8 66.6 30.2 3.1 88.1 94.4: 11.9 5.6
: :
: Total Traders: 282 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 77 40 72 97 95 39 17 246 198:
——————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was sharply higher last week in sympathy with the outside markets and on ideas of low supplies. It was lower today after opening higher due to the start of the Chinese New Year holiday. The market will not reopen until Thursday. Indonesia is once again making moves to cut the availability of Palm Oil for export as it seeks to keep more at home for bio fuels purposes. Short covering was noted on Friday. Crude Oil was higher. There are still poor production conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia. Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels. Production conditions have been very poor and workers are not often in the fields. Canola was higher in range trading. Support came from the rally in Chicago. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. The buy side thinks that Canola is fully priced but the farmers are still holding out for more. Chart trends are mixed for the daily charts.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 998.00, 983.00, and 977.00 March, with resistance at 1026.00, 1032.00, and 1038.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 5710 March. Support is at 5380, 5290, and 5040 April, with resistance at 5680, 5800, and 5920 April.
DJ Malaysia January Palm Oil Exports Fell 26% to 1,105,407 Tons, AmSpec Says
By Chester Tay
Malaysia’s palm oil exports for January are estimated to have fallen 26% from the previous month to 1,105,407 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Monday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
January 1-31 December 1-31
RBD Palm Olein 465,734 411,552
RBD Palm Oil 76,014 103,265
RBD Palm Stearin 87,622 122,961
Crude Palm Oil 211,794 464,441
Total* 1,105,407 1,491,985
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 25, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 189,168 :
: Positions :
: 103,100 153,570 1,159 5,835 605 59,823 4,889 7,969 4,301 5,830 8,968 :
: :
: Changes from: January 18, 2022 :
: 10,427 4,786 55 67 52 -4,216 1,249 -838 185 534 -608 :
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 54.5 81.2 0.6 3.1 0.3 31.6 2.6 4.2 2.3 3.1 4.7 :
: :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 258 :
: 54 42 . 7 4 49 18 15 69 35 49 :
—————————————————————————————————————-
Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry today. Temperatures should average below normal..
US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn
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Soybean Oil
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[JS1]
DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 28
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1007.10 0.00 Mar. 2022 up 9.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 1062.60 45.00 Mar. 2022 up 10.50
Basis: Vancouver 1092.60 75.00 Mar. 2022 up 10.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322