About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT 

General Comments:   Wheat markets closed higher on Friday and mixed for the week as tensions between the west and Russia eased and as Mr Putin said he would not do anything during the Olympics.  The Dollar moved to new highs for the move and could now trade to 100.00 on the March Dollar Index.  Russia has been escalating the crisis to test US and NATO resolve and a war is now more likely or at least some severe sanctions that could end the export programs for both Russia and Ukraine.  The US and Russia are talking and Russia has said it will not do anything during the Olympics.  The weekly export sales report was strong and featured a marketing year high in sales.  It remains dry in the western Great Plains. Ideas had been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average or less against previous years.  Offer volumes are down in Europe.  Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production.  The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia has announced sales quotas.  Australian crop quality should be diminished.  North Africa is very dry.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers.  Temperatures should trend from below to above normal.  Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will trend from below to above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions or isolated showers.  Temperatures should average above normal in the west and below normal in the east.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 774, 771 and 758 March, with resistance at 803, 824, and 831 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 790, 786, and 775 March, with resistance at 819, 829, and 849 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 875 and 833 March.  Support is at 902, 885, and 871 March, and resistance is at 930, 945, and 965 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 25, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #001602                                                              Open Interest is   498,029

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   48,532    81,533   154,154    74,337   171,414   184,908    46,686   461,932   453,787:   36,097    44,242

    :                                                                                         :

    : Changes from: January 18, 2022           (Change in open interest:      29,251)         :

    :    9,315       172    13,004    -1,402     9,166     5,685     5,283    26,603    27,625:    2,648     1,626

    :                                                                                         :

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :      9.7      16.4      31.0      14.9      34.4      37.1       9.4      92.8      91.1:      7.2       8.9

    :                                                                                         :

    : Total Traders:   367          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      106        86       135        77       102        50        28       305       292:

——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 25, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #001612                                                              Open Interest is   242,083

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   42,545    26,770    60,224    41,498   114,130    71,808    15,753   216,074   216,877:   26,009    25,206

    :                                                                                         :

    : Changes from: January 18, 2022           (Change in open interest:       2,211)         :

    :   -2,232    -6,183     5,424    -2,797        -1     2,285     1,181     2,680       421:     -468     1,791

    :                                                                                         :

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     17.6      11.1      24.9      17.1      47.1      29.7       6.5      89.3      89.6:     10.7      10.4

    :                                                                                         :

    : Total Traders:   248          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       69        42        74        62        78        36        19       201       187:

——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 25, 2022

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                     :

CFTC Code #001626                                                    Open Interest is    72,609                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:   32,935    46,261     2,992     1,043       807     6,060     2,720     2,871     5,934     2,121     3,939 :

:                                                                                                              :

: Changes from:     January 18, 2022                                                                           :

:      545     2,471      -192      -164        74      -806      -290       561       336      -438      -793 :

:                                                                                                              :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     45.4      63.7       4.1       1.4       1.1       8.3       3.7       4.0       8.2       2.9       5.4 :

:                                                                                                              :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   108                     :

:       51        44         5         .         5        13         .         4        15         8        10 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 25, 2022

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   50 Metric Tons                                            :

CFTC Code #00160F                                                    Open Interest is    13,139                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    4,608     8,398       375     1,200        55     6,765     2,700         0       695        35       325 :

:                                                                                                              :

: Changes from:     January 18, 2022                                                                           :

:       22       418         0         0         0       500         0      -200       215        35       109 :

:                                                                                                              :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     35.1      63.9       2.9       9.1       0.4      51.5      20.5       0.0       5.3       0.3       2.5 :

:                                                                                                              :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    23                     :

:        4        13         .         .         .         .         .         0         .         .         . :

—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:                                                 

General Comments:  Rice closed slightly higher on Friday after pushing lower early in the session.  Trends have turned mixed on the daily charts.  The US Dollar moved sharply higher last week and made new highs for the move.  It has the potential to trade to 100.00 on the Dollar Index.  The weekly export sales report showed much higher sales levels than previous weeks.  Futures and cash market trading have been quiet until now and the cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere.  Many producers are not interested in selling but some are selling the current crop and generating some needed revenue.  Producer sales are report4ed to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal.  Mills are showing more interest in the market as previously bought supplies start to run low.  The cash market is reported to be relatively strong as prices have held firm and as activity increases.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 1483, 1471, and 1466 March and resistance is at 1510, 1523, and 1536 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 25, 2022

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS)                                            :

CFTC Code #039601                                                    Open Interest is     8,412                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    3,872     6,499       291         0         0     1,320       467         0       578       579        66 :

:                                                                                                              :

: Changes from:     January 18, 2022                                                                           :

:     -350       766        -2         0         0       441         0         0       169        70      -122 :

:                                                                                                              :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     46.0      77.3       3.5       0.0       0.0      15.7       5.6       0.0       6.9       6.9       0.8 :

:                                                                                                              :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    49                     :

:       11        17         .         0         0        10         .         0         7         4         4 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS: 

General Comments:  Corn closed higher on Friday and for the week as the inflation market returned and as the market took a look at South American crop losses. The weekly export sales report showed strong demand for US Corn.  The markets heard about potential improvement in growing conditions in South America but there have already been estimates of losses to Corn in both Argentina and Brazil,.  Central Argentina got the best rains again and the other areas were still dry or got significantly less rain.  Showers are now predicted for southern Brazil and the rest of Argentina and Paraguay and the situation there should become more stable.  Northern Brazil is expected to be drier to help with conditions there.  Ukraine is a major Corn and Wheat ex[porter and the market fears that a disruption in the export pace from there could mean more demand here.  Russia has eased tensions by indicating that nothing will happen until the Olympics end but the market is still watching.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 640, 647, and 656 March.  Support is at 628, 615, and 611 March, and resistance is at 642, 648, and 656 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 698, 729, and 742 March.  Support is at 660, 645, and 640 March, and resistance is at 680, 695, and 709 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 25, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #002602                                                              Open Interest is 1,903,794

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :  356,323    79,802   387,904   457,052 1,138,808   511,570    69,180 1,712,849 1,675,693:  190,946   228,101

    :                                                                                         :

    : Changes from: January 18, 2022           (Change in open interest:      75,478)         :

    :   47,066    -4,627    25,985    -6,951    42,260     7,403     7,169    73,503    70,788:    1,975     4,690

    :                                                                                         :

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     18.7       4.2      20.4      24.0      59.8      26.9       3.6      90.0      88.0:     10.0      12.0

    :                                                                                         :

    : Total Traders:   838          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      188       110       181       349       426        53        25       681       663:

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS 

General Comments:  Soybeans and the products closed higher on Friday and much higher for the week on news that Brazil state Ag agencies had drastically cut back their production estimate for Soybeans in the states.  The states were Mato Grosso do Sul on Wednesday and Parana on Thursday.  Yields were reduced and production was reduced by more than 5%.  Mato Grosso do Sul did the same thing yesterday.  The data implies total Brazil production at 125 million tons to 127 million tons according to at least some analysts here in the US.  Production ideas at the beginning of the crop season were closer to 150 million tons for Brazil so the cuts are drastic and imply much more demand for US Soybeans down the road.  Rains returned to dry soils in South America last week and are likely to continue this week. However, the benefits will be felt mostly in central Argentina and perhaps southern Argentina.  Showers are forecast for southern Brazil, Paraguay, and much of Argentina late this week.  There are ideas of better demand for US Soybeans due to the crop losses that Brazil and Argentina have already incurred due to the drought and due in part to the situation between Ukraine and Russia that could hurt agricultural and energy exports from both countries.  New demand is now thought to come from China as rumors of new business with that destination hit the floor.  China has now been a buyer for two days this week.  Trends are up on the daily and weekly charts.

Overnight News:  China bought 129,000 tons of US Soybeans. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1486 March.  Support is at 1442, 1430, and 1414 March, and resistance is at 1482, 1494, and 1506 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 417.00 and 444.00 March.   Support is at 405.00, 396.00, and 388.00 March, and resistance is at 415.00 420.00, and 426.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 6540 and 6790 March.  Support is at 6300, 6180, and 6120 March, with resistance at 6500, 6620, and 6740 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 25, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #005602                                                              Open Interest is   883,842

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :  132,530    42,879   196,709   254,068   497,861   240,542    49,428   823,850   786,877:   59,993    96,965

    :                                                                                         :

    : Changes from: January 18, 2022           (Change in open interest:      42,369)         :

    :   15,486    -2,848    15,690     9,460    15,398    -2,401    11,748    38,234    39,987:    4,134     2,382

    :                                                                                         :

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     15.0       4.9      22.3      28.7      56.3      27.2       5.6      93.2      89.0:      6.8      11.0

    :                                                                                         :

    : Total Traders:   606          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      166       100       169       189       252        52        23       479       485:

——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 25, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #007601                                                              Open Interest is   455,930

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   61,008    33,470    98,717   123,099   281,179   135,089    15,619   417,913   428,984:   38,017    26,946

    :                                                                                         :

    : Changes from: January 18, 2022           (Change in open interest:      21,131)         :

    :    5,567   -10,015    12,890    -3,092    14,556     2,508     2,040    17,874    19,471:    3,258     1,660

    :                                                                                         :

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     13.4       7.3      21.7      27.0      61.7      29.6       3.4      91.7      94.1:      8.3       5.9

    :                                                                                         :

    : Total Traders:   286          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       73        48        86        81        89        40        22       243       210:

——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 25, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #026603                                                              Open Interest is   451,424

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   60,106    21,997    89,265   111,914   300,705   136,282    13,987   397,568   425,955:   53,856    25,469

    :                                                                                         :

    : Changes from: January 18, 2022           (Change in open interest:      -7,199)         :

    :   -6,996    -4,776     2,279       828    -5,547       377     2,948    -3,511    -5,096:   -3,688    -2,103

    :                                                                                         :

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     13.3       4.9      19.8      24.8      66.6      30.2       3.1      88.1      94.4:     11.9       5.6

    :                                                                                         :

    : Total Traders:   282          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       77        40        72        97        95        39        17       246       198:

——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL 

General Comments:  Palm Oil was sharply higher last week in sympathy with the outside markets and on ideas of low supplies.  It was lower today after opening higher due to the start of the Chinese New Year holiday.  The market will not reopen until Thursday.  Indonesia is once again making moves to cut the availability of Palm Oil for export as it seeks to keep more at home for bio fuels purposes.  Short covering was noted on Friday.  Crude Oil was higher.  There are still poor production conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia.  Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels.  Production conditions have been very poor and workers are not often in the fields.  Canola was higher in range trading.  Support came from the rally in Chicago.  Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year.  The buy side thinks that Canola is fully priced but the farmers are still holding out for more.  Chart trends are mixed for the daily charts.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 998.00, 983.00, and 977.00 March, with resistance at 1026.00, 1032.00, and 1038.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 5710 March.  Support is at 5380, 5290, and 5040 April, with resistance at 5680, 5800, and 5920 April.

DJ Malaysia January Palm Oil Exports Fell 26% to 1,105,407 Tons, AmSpec Says 

   By Chester Tay

  Malaysia’s palm oil exports for January are estimated to have fallen 26% from the previous month to 1,105,407 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Monday.

  The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:

  (All figures in metric tons)

                        January 1-31      December 1-31

   RBD Palm Olein         465,734            411,552

   RBD Palm Oil            76,014            103,265

   RBD Palm Stearin        87,622            122,961

   Crude Palm Oil         211,794            464,441

   Total*               1,105,407          1,491,985

  *Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 25, 2022

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (20 Metric Tonnes)                                                                 :

CFTC Code #135731                                                    Open Interest is   189,168                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:  103,100   153,570     1,159     5,835       605    59,823     4,889     7,969     4,301     5,830     8,968 :

:                                                                                                              :

: Changes from:     January 18, 2022                                                                           :

:   10,427     4,786        55        67        52    -4,216     1,249      -838       185       534      -608 :

:                                                                                                              :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     54.5      81.2       0.6       3.1       0.3      31.6       2.6       4.2       2.3       3.1       4.7 :

:                                                                                                              :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   258                     :

:       54        42         .         7         4        49        18        15        69        35        49 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry today.  Temperatures should average below normal..

US Gulf Cash Basis 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn 

HRW 

SRW 

Soybeans 

Soybean Meal 

Soybean Oil 

June 

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Augustg 

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 July 

 

 

[JS1] 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 28 

     WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures.

     Source: ICE Futures

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

                     Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA  

*Par Region         1007.10     0.00     Mar. 2022    up  9.60  

Basis: Thunder Bay  1062.60    45.00     Mar. 2022    up 10.50

Basis: Vancouver    1092.60    75.00     Mar. 2022    up 10.50

     All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

     *Quote for previous day

     Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,

or 204-414-9084)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322