About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON        

General Comments:  Cotton futures closed lower yesterday as the US Dollar moved sharply higher.  The Dollar made new highs for the move and now appears ready to trade at 100.00 on the Dollar Index.  Traders are monitoring the Russia-Ukraine situation as any invasion of Ukraine by Russia could mean an end or at least a severe restriction to energy exports from Russia.  Concerns about an invasion seem to be receding at this time.  That would hurt polyester pricing and help Cotton demand.  It’s been a demand market and futures have been correcting lower over the last few sessions in search of new demand.  Ideas are that demand remains strong for US Cotton even with the weaker export sales reports over the last couple of weeks.  Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future.  US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation.  Good US production is expected for next year as planted area is expected to increase due to high Cotton prices and the expense of planting Corn.  Chart trends are still mostly up in this market.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and both areas will get near to below normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 118.69 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 617 bales, from 617 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 12080, 11930, and 11840 March, with resistance of 12290, 12480 and 12560 March.

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ was higher again on what appeared to be some speculative buying primarily based on weather concerns.  It has been cold, but ideas are that it has not been cold enough for long enough to do more than damage some leaves on the trees.  It will be cold again this weekend but not likely to be cold enough to do anything more than damage a few more leaves on the trees.  The trends are still up on the daily charts on the reduced Florida Oranges production estimates seen recently.   USDA cut its Oranges production estimate for Florida, but increased production when compared to the last report for the whole of the US.  Production overall remains less on a year to year basis.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest.  Mexico is rated in good condition.

Overnight News:  Florida should get isolated showers.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.  \

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 166.00 and 176.00 March.  Support is at 157.00, 152.00, and 150.00 March, with resistance at 164.00, 166.00, and 169.00 March.

COFFEE   

General Comments:  New York and London closed lower as the US Dollar moved sharply higher and made new highs for the move.  The Dollar could be on its way to trading at 100 on the Dollar Index.  The rest of the fundamentals have not really changed.  Ideas continue that the next crop in Brazil is experiencing good growing conditions.  Vietnamese producers have been selling so differentials have gone down in that market and it now pays to send Coffee to London and the rest of Europe.  The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year.  Big rains more recently in some Brazil growing areas have hurt cherry formation as well.  Containers are not available in Vietnam or in Brazil to ship the Coffee, but logistical situation in both countries has eased in recent weeks.  Brazil producers have sold most of the current year crop and are forward pricing for next year.  Vietnam producers are also selling and some of the Robusta is going to the exchange in London as differentials have weakened.  Vietnam is getting scattered showers on the coast but dry conditions inland.  The rest of Southeast Asia should get scattered showers in the islands and mostly dry conditions on the mainland.  Production conditions for the next crop in Colombia are not good.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.288 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 204.89 ct/lb.  Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get mostly dry conditions.  Vietnam will see scattered showers near the coast and mostly dry conditions inland.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 231.00, 227.00, and 225.00 March, and resistance is at 238.00, 241.00 and 246.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 2130 and 2070 March.   Support is at 2180, 2160, and 2140 March, and resistance is at 2210, 2230, and 2250 March[JS1] .

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York and London were a little lower again yesterday on good growing conditions from Brazil, but found support as the market tries to ensure that there will be enough White Sugar production and imports from India and Thailand.  A stronger US Dollar hurt bullish demand ideas.  Ideas are that stronger Crude Oil prices imply stronger ethanol prices for more ethanol production and less Sugar production in Brazil and those ideas help keep Sugar prices supported.  Crude Oil closed higher again yesterday.  There have been reports of improved growing conditions for the crops in central-south areas of Brazil.  Showers will continue into much of this week and crops should benefit from the return of moisture to the region.  Ideas are that the supplies are available from India and Thailand as harvests there are off to a good start but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1810 and 1750 March.  Support is at 1820, 1800, and 1760 March and resistance is at 1860, 1890, and 1920 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 497.00 and 489.00 March.  Support is at 495.00, 492.00, and 487.00 March and resistance is at 508.00, 516.00, and 520.00 March.

COCOA                                                                                   

General Comments:  Both markets closed lower yesterday on a very strong US Dollar.  New York closed much lower than London.  The weather is generally good for West Africa and Southeast Asia.  Ideas are that demand will continue to improve and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.  Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around.  Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.540 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2390, and 2300 March.  Support is at 2400, 2380, and 2370 March, with resistance at 2500, 2570, and 2610 March.  Trends in London are down with objectives of 1670 March.  Support is at 1680, 1650, and 1620 March, with resistance at 1710, 1730, and 1750 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322