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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 01/27/2022

By Jack Scoville On January 27, 2022 - 10:32 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Jan 27

For the week ended Jan 20, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in

thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,

less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total

commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.

The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and

and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and

soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA

wk’s net chg total

in commitments commitments undlvd sales

this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr

wheat 676.7 60.0 17204.8 21770.5 5145.6 216.0

hrw 279.2 15.0 6779.9 7357.6 2165.8 39.5

srw 86.9 16.0 2575.8 1599.7 743.9 70.5

hrs 199.9 15.0 4627.5 6407.5 1361.7 31.0

white 110.1 14.0 3054.0 5747.9 819.6 42.0

durum 0.4 0.0 167.7 657.8 54.6 33.0

corn 1402.3 -165.0 43948.1 48670.0 25549.0 1452.0

soybeans 1025.5 202.8 44133.9 57756.5 9101.5 1196.9

soymeal 330.1 -99.0 6875.6 6898.2 2938.4 138.2

soyoil 12.2 -0.1 480.6 573.7 176.1 0.2

upland cotton 391.3 106.8 11658.6 12479.2 8057.6 1398.5

pima cotton 3.6 0.0 386.6 645.4 220.8 5.3

sorghum 328.5 0.0 6134.8 5757.3 4172.0 53.0

barley 0.0 0.0 30.5 30.5 18.0 0.0

rice 75.7 0.0 1758.1 2115.8 456.0 0.0

WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat markets closed lower yesterday as tensions between the west and Russia eased and as Mr Putin said he would not do anything during the Olympics. Russia has been escalating the crisis to test US and NATO resolve and a war is now more likely or at least some severe sanctions that could end the export programs for both Russia and Ukraine. President Biden and western leaders say they do not want war but the US is preparing just in case by mobilizing some of the army. It remains dry in the western Great Plains with no real relief in sight. USDA rated the crop conditions down in the latest monthly report released yesterday. Ideas had been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average or less against previous years. Offer volumes are down in Europe. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production. The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia has announced sales quotas. Australian crop quality should be diminished. North Africa is very dry.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should trend from below to above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will trend from below to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal in the west and below normal in the east.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 841 and 856 March. Support is at 776, 771, and 758 March, with resistance at 803, 824, and 831 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 803, 793, and 786 March, with resistance at 829, 849, and 871 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 910 and 875 March. Support is at 908, 895, and 871 March, and resistance is at 930, 945, and 965 March.

RICE:

General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday and trends are still up in the market. Futures and cash market trading have been quiet until now and the cash market is still quiet but domestic mill business is around everywhere. Many producers are not interested in selling but some are selling the current crop and generating some needed revenue. Mills are showing more interest in the market as previously bought supplies start to run low. The cash market is reported to be relatively strong as prices have held firm and as activity increases.

Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1483, 1471, and 1466 March and resistance is at 1509, 1512, and 1524 March.

CORN AND OATS:

General Comments: Corn closed higher again yesterday on reduced Soybeans production estimates for Mato Grosso do Sul and on the tensions around Ukraine. Rains have arrived to help dry soils in South America. The markets heard about potential improvement in growing conditions in South America. Central Argentina got the best rains again and the other areas were still dry or got significantly less rain. Showers are now predicted for southern Brazil and the rest of Argentina and Paraguay and the situation there should become more stable. Northern Brazil is expected to be drier to help with conditions there. Ukraine is a major Corn and Wheat ex[porter and the market fears that a sisruption in the export pace from there could mean more demand here. Russia has eased tensions by indicating that nothing will happen until the Olympics end but the market is still watching.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 632 and 647 March. Support is at 615, 611, and 604 March, and resistance is at 630, 636, and 642 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 640, 616, and 601 March, and resistance is at 666, 677, and 680 March.

SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed higher on news that the Mato Grosso do Sul state Ag agency had drastically cut back nits production estiate for Soybeans in the state. Yields were reduced and production was reduced by more than 5%. The data implies total Brtazil production at 125 million tons to 127 million tons according to at least some analysts here in the US. Production ideas at ther beginning of the crop season were closer to 150 million tons for Brazil so the cuts are drastic and imply much more demand for US Soybeans down the road. Rains returned to dry soils in South America last week and are likely to continue this week. However, the benefits will be felt mostly in central Argentina and perhaps southern Argentina. Showers are forecast for southern Brazil, Paraguay, and much of Argentina late this week. There are ideas of better demand for US Soybeans due to the crop losses that Brazil and Argentina have already incurred due to the drought and due in part to the situation between Ukraine and Russia that could hurt agricultural and energy exports from both countries. New demand is now thought to come from China as rumors of new business with that destination hit the floor. China has now been a buyer for two days this week. Trends are up on the daily and weekly charts.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1486 March. Support is at 1430, 1414, and 1394 March, and resistance is at 1444, 1456, and 1470 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 388.00, 385.00, and 380.00 March, and resistance is at 405.00 415.00, and 420.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6540 and 6790 March. Support is at 6180, 6120, and 6000 March, with resistance at 6500, 6620, and 6740 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Palm Oil was a little higher yesterday in sympathy with the outside markets and on ideas of low supplies. Crude Oil was higher. There are still poor production conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia. Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels. Production conditions have been very poor and workers are not often in the fields. Canola was higher in range trading. Support came from the rally in Chicago. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. The buy side thinks that Canola is fully priced but the farmers are still holding out for more. Chart trends are mixed for the daily charts.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 983.00, 977.00, and 959.00 March, with resistance at 1010.00, 1026.00, and 1038.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 5530 and 5710 March. Support is at 5290, 5040, and 4980 April, with resistance at 5440, 5500, and 5560 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry today. Temperatures should average below normal..

US Gulf Cash Basis


	Corn	HRW	SRW	Soybeans	Soybean Meal	Soybean Oil
June	July	May	May	May
July	July		July	July
Augustg	July		July	July
				[JS1]

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 26

WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures.

Source: ICE Futures

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

Price Basis Contract Change

CANOLA

*Par Region 995.20 0.00 Mar. 2022 dn 0.70

Basis: Thunder Bay 1042.50 45.00 Mar. 2022 up 2.30

Basis: Vancouver 1072.50 75.00 Mar. 2022 up 2.30

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,

or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 27

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports