About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON        

General Comments:  Cotton futures closed lower again Friday in correction trading but higher for the week.  Traders were keeping and eye on the weakness in the stock markets as a reason to sell Cotton.  It’s been a demand market and prices have been sideways waiting for demand to catch up to the price.  Ideas are that demand remains strong for US Cotton even with the weaker export sales reports over the last couple of weeks.  Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future.  US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation.  Good US production is expected for next year as planted area is expected to increase due to high Cotton prices and the expense of planting Corn.  Chart trends are still mostly up in this market.

Overnight News:  The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and Southeast will get scattered showers and both areas will get near to below normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 117.25 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 617 bales, from 617 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 11840, 11650, and 11450 March, with resistance of 12460, 12560 and 12680 March.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Jan 21 

   As of Jan 14. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or

purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts

of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.

Source: CFTC

   *-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from

last week.

              Call  Previous   Change       Call  Previous  Change

             Sales                     Purchases

Dec 21            0         0        0          0         0       0

Mar 22       47,346    49,987   -2,641      8,819     9,018    -199

May 22       23,503    22,410    1,093      3,095     3,054      41

Jul 22       50,746    49,891      855      5,450     5,705    -255

Oct 22            0         0        0          0         0       0

Dec 22       17,477    14,531    2,946     15,850    14,016   1,834

Mar 23        3,509     3,390      119        716       758     -42

May 23        1,595     1,338      257          0         0       0

Jul 23        1,521     1,450       71         44        44       0

Dec 23        2,277     2,281       -4      5,745     5,656      89

Jul 24            0         0        0        220       220       0

Dec 24            0         0        0        220       220       0

Total       147,974   145,278    2,696     40,159    38,691   1,468

              Open      Open   Change

               Int       Int

Dec 21            0         0        0

Mar 22      109,228   117,366   -8,138

May 22       58,556    55,845    2,711

Jul 22       37,607    30,170    7,437

Oct 22           44        44        0

Dec 22       35,026    34,773      253

Mar 23        3,127     2,792      335

May 23          583       374      209

Jul 23          403       373       30

Dec 23        4,596     4,206      390

Jul 24            0         0        0

Dec 24            0         0        0

Total       249,170   245,943    3,227

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ was slightly higher on Friday on what appeared to be some speculative buying primarily based on inflation concerns.  The trends are still up on the daily charts on the reduced Florida Oranges production estimates seen last week.  Futures were higher for the week but stalled against resistance areas near 158.00 March   USDA cut its Oranges production estimate for Florida, but increased production when compared to the last report for the whole of the US.  Production overall remains less on a year to year basis.  The freeze season has arrived in Florida but the weather remains generally good for production in Florida and around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.

Overnight News:  Florida should get isolated showers.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for FCOJ for January delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 166.00 and 176.00 March.  Support is at 152.00, 150.00, and 146.00 March, with resistance at 160.00, 163.00, and 166.00 March.

COFFEE   

General Comments:  New York and London closed a little lower as the logistical and production problems in Brazil are still around but are slowly being resolved.  Vietnamese producers have been selling so differentials have gone down in that market and it now pays to send Coffee to London and the rest of Europe.  Trends in London have turned down but trends in New York are still sideways or up.  The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year.  Big rains more recently in some Brazil growing areas have hurt cherry formation as well.  Containers are not available in Vietnam or in Brazil to ship the Coffee, but the Brazil logistical situation has eased in recent weeks as Cecafe noted still below normal, but improving, exports for December.  Conab noted the extreme weather when it estimated total Brazil Coffee production at just over 55 million bags last week..  Brazil farmers have sold about 82% of the Coffee this year, from 74% average.  They have forward sold about a third of the next crop.  Vietnam producers are also selling and some of the Robusta is going to the exchange in London as differentials have weakened.  The harvest in Vietnam is now about 90% complete.  Vietnam is getting scattered showers on the coast but dry conditions inland.  The rest of Southeast Asia should get scattered showers in the islands and mostly dry conditions on the mainland.  Production conditions for the next crop in Colombia are not good.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.358 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 204.28 ct/lb.  Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get mostly dry conditions.  Vietnam will see scattered showers near the coast and mostly dry conditions inland.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 247.00 and 256.00 March.  Support is at 235.00, 232.00, and 227.00 March, and resistance is at 245.00, 248.00 and 252.00 March.  Trends in London are down with no objectives.   Support is at 2180, 2160, and 2140 March, and resistance is at 2250, 2270, and 2300 March[JS1] .

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York and London were a little lower on Friday in correction trading, but higher for the week as the market tries to ensure that there will be enough White Sugar production and imports from India and Thailand.  Ideas are that stronger Crude Oil prices imply stronger ethanol prices for more ethanol production and less Sugar production in Brazil and those ideas help keep Sugar prices supported.  Crude Oil closed higher again yesterday.  There have been reports of improved growing conditions for the crops in central-south areas of Brazil.  Showers were reported in central south areas last weekend and will continue into much of this week and crops should benefit from the return of moisture to the region.  Ideas are that the supplies are available from India and Thailand as harvests there are off to a good start but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market.  Trends are still up in the market as futures have formed a bottom on the daily charts.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1925, 2010, and 2040 March.  Support is at 1870, 1850, and 1840 March and resistance is at 1930, 1960, and 1970 March.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 522.00 and 532.00 March.  Support is at 500.00, 495.00, and 492.00 March and resistance is at 516.00, 520.00, and 523.00 March.

COCOA                                                                                   

General Comments:  New York closed mixed to lower and London was a little lower yesterday in range trading and on ideas of better demand as the weather is generally good for West Africa and Southeast Asia.  There were some reports of Ivory Coast hedging in the market yesterday an today.  Trends are turning up again in both markets.  Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.  Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around.  Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results.  The European grind was up 6.3% from a year ago and was considered very strong.  The North American grind fell 1.2%

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are slightly higher today at 4.565 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2580, 2390, and 2300 March.  Support is at 2530, 2510, and 2450 March, with resistance at 2640, 2690, and 2700 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1730, 1700, and 1690 March, with resistance at 1770, 1790, and 1810 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322