About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT 

General Comments:   Wheat markets closed lower as there was nothing new on renewed demand hopes as Russia is ramping up pressure on Ukraine and as a war becomes more possible.  But, there was no new news.  The Russian embassy will be staffed with only the minimum required personnel and all other workers there will be sent home.  Russia is escalating the crisis to test US and NATO resolve and a war is now more likely or at least some severe sanctions that could end the export programs for both Russia and Ukraine.  Futures are now trading at the upper end of the current trading range and could confirm a bottom has formed later this week.  The USDA reports released last Wednesday showed less domestic and export demand and higher than expected ending stocks levels.  The Wheat seedings report showed more than expected planted area, especially for Soft Red Winter.  It remains dry in the western Great Plains with no real relief in sight.  Ideas had been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average or less against previous years.  Futures have been moving lower since late November because of the poor export demand and might be finding a bottom now.  Offer volumes are down in Europe.  Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production.  The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia has announced sales quotas.  Australian crop quality should be diminished.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers.  Temperatures should trend from below to above normal.  Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will trend from below to above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions or isolated showers.  Temperatures should average above normal in the west and below normal in the east.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 806 and 841 March.  Support is at 780, 771, and 758 March, with resistance at 808, 824, and 840 March.  Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives.  Support is at 775, 761, and 744 March, with resistance at 808, 811, and 829 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 933, 915, and 908 March, and resistance is at 965, 972, and 992 March.

RICE: 

General Comments:  Rice was higher last week and made new contract highs for the March contract.  Trends are still up in the market.  The USDA reports showed less production and imports and smaller ending stocks.  Demand was trimmed as well, but the supply was cut more.  Futures and cash market trading have been quiet until now and the cash market is still quiet but domestic mill business is around everywhere.  Many producers are not interested in selling.  Mills are showing more interest in the market as previously bought supplies start to run low.  The cash market is reported to be relatively strong as prices have held firm and as activity increases.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1483 March.  Support is at 1453, 1437, and 1410 March and resistance is at 1483, 1488, and 1491 March.

CORN AND OATS: 

General Comments:  Corn closed higher on Friday and higher for the week.  USDA showed good export sales in the weekly report on Friday and rains have arrived to help dry soils in South America.   USDA a couple of weeks ago increased US Corn production by a little bit and did not cut Argentine and Brazilian Corn production estimates as much as it could have.  Demand was also trimmed on the domestic and export side. The markets heard about potential improvement in growing conditions in South America.  Central Argentina got the best rains again and the other areas were still dry or got significantly less rain.  Showers are now predicted for southern Brazil and the rest of Argentina and Paraguay and the situation there should become more stable.  Northern Brazil is expected to be drier to help with conditions there.

Overnight News:  Unknown destinations bought 150,000 tons of US Corn.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 650 March.  Support is at 604, 600, and 585 March, and resistance is at 618 624, and 628 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 695 and 742 March.  Support is at 601, 590, and 582 March, and resistance is at 645, 666, and 677 March.

SOYBEANS 

General Comments:  Soybeans and the products closed higher on ideas of new demand as rains returned to dry soils in South America last week and are likely to continue. However, the benefits will be felt mostly in central Argentina and perhaps southern Argentina.  Showers are forecast for southern Brazil, Paraguay, and much of Argentina early this week as well.  New demand is now thought to come from China as rumors of new business with that destination hit the floor.  Soybean Oil was higher on price strength in Palm Oil and Crude Oil.  The rains last week mostly fell in northern Brazil with southern Brazil, much of Argentina, and Paraguay still mostly dry.  The drier areas are getting some precipitation now but central Argentina will get the best rains.  Only scattered showers are forecast for the other areas although conditions are slated to improve somewhat in all of the dry areas,  Trends are up on the daily and weekly charts.

Overnight News:  China bought 132,000 tns of US Soybeans. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1486 March.  Support is at 1405, 1378, and 1369 March, and resistance is at 1437, 1444, and 1456 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 384.00 and 359.00 March.   Support is at 390.00, 385.00, and 380.00 March, and resistance is at 415.00 420.00, and 426.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 6290 and 6320 March.  Support is at 6140, 6000, and 5960 March, with resistance at 6380, 6500, and 6620 March.

DJ Brazil Soybean Harvest Picks Up the Pace, Rain Disappoints in South — Market Talk 

     0831 ET – Brazilian farmers picked up the pace of their soybean harvesting, with producers in more states beginning their work while the rain that fell in the parched state of Rio Grande do Sul disappointed, according to agricultural consultancy AgRural. As of Jan. 20, 5% of the estimated area planted with the oilseeds had been harvested, up from 1% a week earlier and ahead of the 0.7% on the same date last year, AgRural said. Productivity in Mato Grosso state, Brazil’s biggest producer of soybeans, was satisfactory, with fewer reports of damaged crops, the consultancy said. The lack of rain in southern states continues to cause problems, with low productivity reported in some parts of Parana because of the scant precipitation, though recent showers in other areas have helped. In Rio Grande do Sul it rained less than hoped in previous days, and with higher-than-normal temperatures, threatening productivity there, AgRural said. (jeffrey.lewis@wsj.com)

CANOLA AND PALM OIL 

General Comments:  Palm Oil was higher last week and moved to new contract highs.  Crude Oil made new highs and Indonesia is once again using its own Palm Oil to produce bio fuels and also announced plans to restrict exports to promote lower costs at home for cooking oil.  Futures were lower today on ideas of bad January exports.  There are still poor production conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia.  Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels.  Production conditions have been very poor and workers are not often in the fields.  Canola was higher last week along with the price action in Chicago.  The rain in South America are no longer hurting Canola and Soybeans prices.  Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year.  The buy side thinks that Canola is fully priced but the farmers are still holding out for more.  Chart trends are mixed for the daily charts.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 1040.00 and `1067.00 March.  Support is at 996.00, 983.00, and 977.00 March, with resistance at 1027.00, 1038.00, and 1040.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives.  Support is at 5200, 5110, and 5040 April, with resistance at 5360, 5420, and 5480 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Chance of snow this weekend.  Temperatures should average near to nelow normal..

US Gulf Cash Basis 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn 

HRW 

SRW 

Soybeans 

Soybean Meal 

Soybean Oil 

June 

 July 

 May 

 May 

 May 

July 

 July 

 July 

 July 

Augustg 

 July 

 July 

 July 

 

 

[JS1] 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 20 

     WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures.

     Source: ICE Futures

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

                     Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA  

*Par Region         1005.70     5.00     Mar. 2022    up 36.70  

Basis: Thunder Bay  1067.00    45.00     Mar. 2022    up 21.30

Basis: Vancouver    1097.00    75.00     Mar. 2022    up 21.30

     All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

     *Quote for previous day

     Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,

or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 24 

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

                Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb             1372.50    -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Mar             1347.50    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun     1277.50    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep     1177.50    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB,     Malaysian ports

                 Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb              1375.00    -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Mar              1350.00    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun      1280.00    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep      1180.00    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB,  Malaysian ports

                 Offer      Change       Bid       Change   Traded

Feb              1375.00    -05.00       Unquoted  –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

                 Offer       Change       Bid        Change   Traded

Feb              1300.00     00.00       Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                 Offer       Change        Bid        Change   Traded

Feb              5,500.00    00.00        Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                 Offer      Change         Bid        Change   Traded

Feb              585.00     -05.00        Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.187)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 24 

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 233,885 lots, or 14.13 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Mar-22     6,004     6,114     5,983     6,091     5,982     6,040        58   176,074   128,485

May-22     6,034     6,114     5,997     6,089     6,005     6,047        42    36,873    30,864

Jul-22     6,010     6,090     5,981     6,066     5,981     6,030        49    18,749    35,453

Sep-22     5,979     6,060     5,961     6,034     5,958     6,014        56     1,347     3,878

Nov-22     5,957     6,016     5,951     6,008     5,945     5,995        50       789     5,339

Jan-23     5,919     5,970     5,902     5,965     5,906     5,941        35        53        75

Corn

Turnover: 449,197 lots, or 12.27 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

Mar-22     2,701     2,712     2,694     2,698     2,708     2,701        -7    54,230     174,880

May-22     2,735     2,745     2,731     2,732     2,747     2,735       -12   338,287   1,160,215

Jul-22     2,743     2,747     2,731     2,735     2,748     2,737       -11    20,518     128,115

Sep-22     2,740     2,747     2,731     2,733     2,750     2,738       -12    28,506      80,743

Nov-22     2,706     2,720     2,706     2,712     2,718     2,713        -5     6,783      25,026

Jan-23     2,683     2,687     2,672     2,677     2,694     2,679       -15       873       2,296

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,149,193 lots, or 37.67 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

Mar-22     3,423     3,441     3,409     3,422     3,411     3,426        15    68,658     197,213

May-22     3,278     3,282     3,244     3,253     3,257     3,263         6   835,944   1,313,246

Jul-22     3,263     3,272     3,232     3,247     3,245     3,255        10    47,245     235,354

Aug-22     3,319     3,325     3,283     3,302     3,308     3,304        -4    23,819     117,231

Sep-22     3,309     3,317     3,279     3,292     3,303     3,299        -4   132,684     286,385

Nov-22     3,282     3,292     3,258     3,289     3,274     3,277         3    24,123      48,897

Dec-22     3,279     3,282     3,247     3,269     3,265     3,266         1    12,105       7,218

Jan-23     3,255     3,256     3,220     3,238     3,245     3,233       -12     4,615       6,898

Palm Oil

Turnover: 797,419 lots, or 76.58 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Feb-22    10,622    10,728    10,560    10,588    10,516    10,638       122     2,154     3,942

Mar-22    10,320    10,424    10,214    10,214    10,202    10,312       110    36,898    63,786

Apr-22     9,988    10,078     9,892     9,894     9,860     9,970       110    20,735    61,128

May-22     9,606     9,692     9,470     9,470     9,448     9,580       132   693,161   511,985

Jun-22     9,356     9,422     9,202     9,202     9,142     9,314       172    25,381    60,786

Jul-22     9,080     9,206     8,994     9,000     8,958     9,096       138     9,154    20,709

Aug-22     8,928     8,994     8,902     8,918     8,758     8,918       160       218     1,930

Sep-22     8,818     8,864     8,668     8,670     8,654     8,760       106     9,511    24,408

Oct-22         –         –         –     8,570     8,570     8,570         0         0       192

Nov-22     8,550     8,576     8,394     8,452     8,482     8,520        38        17     1,438

Dec-22         –         –         –     8,406     8,406     8,406         0         0        39

Jan-23     8,330     8,456     8,224     8,274     8,244     8,324        80       190       377

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 746,461 lots, or 71.26 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Mar-22     9,926     9,936     9,718     9,722     9,754     9,834        80    34,269    79,963

May-22     9,590     9,652     9,432     9,436     9,470     9,556        86   634,673   557,180

Jul-22     9,452     9,482     9,294     9,294     9,268     9,424       156    32,209   130,291

Aug-22     9,400     9,422     9,246     9,248     9,228     9,346       118    10,053    38,644

Sep-22     9,302     9,356     9,172     9,172     9,188     9,278        90    21,581    55,119

Nov-22     9,180     9,250     9,064     9,068     9,060     9,162       102     7,275     6,318

Dec-22     9,148     9,182     8,986     8,992     8,996     9,090        94     6,172       490

Jan-23     9,020     9,190     8,926     8,946     8,948     9,048       100       229       163

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322