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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 01/21/2022

By Jack Scoville On January 21, 2022 - 9:56 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for January USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report

The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) Friday.

Average Range

of estimates of estimates

On-feed Jan 1 99.7 99.5- 100.0

Placed in Dec 101.8 100.0- 104.7

Marketed in Dec 100.9 100.2- 102.1

Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed

Jan 1 in Dec in Dec

Allegiant Commodity Group 99.9 102.4 100.6

Allendale Inc. 99.6 102.0 102.0

HedgersEdge 100.0 104.7 102.1

Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 99.5 100.2 100.5

NFC Markets 99.7 101.7 100.6

Texas A&M Extension 99.5 100.0 100.6

U.S. Commodities 99.9 102.8 100.2

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Jan 20

Winnipeg — The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics

for week ended Jan. 16, 2022. Figures in thousands of metric tons.

Source: Canadian Grain Commission.

Durum

Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*

COMMERCIAL STOCKS

This Week 2714.7 964.5 310.7 366.6 51.0 1459.8 346.4 173.1 6757.4

Week Ago 2513.8 929.6 268.0 362.8 51.3 1312.7 317.6 209.8 6316.9

Year Ago 2339.2 847.5 298.7 525.5 75.1 1689.8 373.1 90.8 6966.0

PRODUCER DELIVERIES

This Week 406.0 74.1 73.3 74.4 3.6 340.1 39.1 14.0 1066.2

Week Ago 92.8 14.8 16.7 27.3 1.3 148.4 8.9 7.5 326.8

To Date 7430.5 1542.8 1086.1 2618.8 130.1 8278.5 1150.7 184.0 23995.7

Year Ago 10250.2 2972.5 1570.0 2706.4 286.6 10916.9 2327.9 191.5 33740.6

TERMINAL RECEIPTS

This Week 234.4 14.1 0.0 23.3 0.0 136.6 2.2 13.7 447.7

Week Ago 226.1 35.3 0.2 24.0 0.0 127.7 1.3 10.2 521.6

To Date 7341.8 1891.3 155.3 1546.1 27.0 3822.6 709.1 657.8 20378.0

Year Ago 11206.7 3542.7 444.8 1819.5 134.4 6417.5 1564.1 555.4 30601.2

EXPORTS

This Week 304.3 11.2 12.0 16.1 1.2 75.2 1.8 40.0 495.3

Week Ago 187.1 19.6 34.7 3.0 0.9 122.3 2.3 0.0 506.9

To Date 5483.3 1212.3 673.0 1502.8 49.5 3141.6 720.6 551.9 16371.4

Year Ago 9220.1 2553.9 1066.2 1832.4 182.7 5824.5 1580.2 456.3 26441.8

DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE

This Week 56.3 22.5 18.5 46.3 1.4 117.7 4.3 71.9 368.6

Week Ago 103.8 16.5 13.5 28.2 1.0 200.8 3.2 65.4 453.2

To Date 2092.5 237.7 375.0 884.7 30.3 4333.0 129.5 1018.7 10174.8

Year Ago 2147.9 250.4 358.7 525.3 29.9 4994.0 94.0 419.1 9769.6

*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,

canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.

Source: Commodity News Service Canada

(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell

204-782-5944)

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Jan 21

For the week ended Jan 13, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in

thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,

less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total

commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.

The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and

and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and

soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA

wk’s net chg total

in commitments commitments undlvd sales

this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr

wheat 380.6 72.0 16528.1 21389.9 4829.8 156.0

hrw 141.1 10.5 6500.7 7248.2 2016.8 24.5

srw 110.9 17.5 2488.8 1585.3 702.2 54.5

hrs 91.4 16.0 4427.6 6271.4 1273.1 16.0

white 36.9 28.0 2943.9 5625.4 783.2 28.0

durum 0.4 0.0 167.3 659.7 54.6 33.0

corn 1091.3 105.0 42545.8 46819.7 25583.6 1617.0

soybeans 671.0 528.0 43108.4 57290.5 9670.1 994.1

soymeal 314.9 201.7 6545.5 6756.0 2935.4 237.2

soyoil 30.7 0.0 468.5 554.5 213.9 0.3

upland cotton 273.0 139.2 11267.3 12156.6 7864.2 1291.8

pima cotton 3.8 0.0 383.0 619.6 221.5 5.3

sorghum 477.5 53.0 5806.3 5572.3 3917.4 53.0

barley 0.0 0.0 30.5 30.6 18.0 0.0

rice 42.7 0.0 1682.5 1970.6 442.8 0.0

WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat markets closed lower as there was nothing new on renewed demand hopes as Russia is ramping up pressure on Ukraine and as a war becomes more possible. But, there was no new news. The Russian embassy will be staffed with only the minimum required personnel and all other workers there will be sent home. Russia is escalating the crisis to test US and NATO resolve and a war is now more likely or at least some severe sanctions that could end the export programs for both Russia and Ukraine. Futures are now trading at the upper end of the current trading range and could confirm a bottom has formed later this week. The USDA reports released last Wednesday showed less domestic and export demand and higher than expected ending stocks levels. The Wheat seedings report showed more than expected planted area, especially for Soft Red Winter. It remains dry in the western Great Plains with no real relief in sight. Ideas had been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average or less against previous years. Futures have been moving lower since late November because of the poor export demand and might be finding a bottom now. Offer volumes are down in Europe. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production. The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia has announced sales quotas. Australian crop quality should be diminished.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should trend from below to above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will trend from below to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal in the west and below normal in the east.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 806 and 841 March. Support is at 780, 771, and 758 March, with resistance at 808, 824, and 840 March. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 775, 761, and 744 March, with resistance at 808, 811, and 829 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 933, 915, and 908 March, and resistance is at 965, 972, and 992 March.

RICE:

General Comments Rice was higher again yesterday and is now positioned to make new contract highs for the March contract. Trends are still up in the market. The USDA reports showed less production and imports and smaller ending stocks. Demand was trimmed as well, but the supply was cut more. Futures and cash market trading have been quiet until now and the cash market is still quiet but domestic mill business is around everywhere. Many producers are not interested in selling. Mills are showing more interest in the market as previously bought supplies start to run low. The cash market is reported to be relatively strong as prices have held firm and as activity increases.

Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1483 March. Support is at 1453, 1437, and 1410 March and resistance is at 1483, 1488, and 1491 March.

CORN AND OATS:

General Comments: Corn closed narrowly mixed. USDA showed disappointing export sales in the weekly report on Thursday and rains have arrived to help dry soils in South America. USDA on Wednesday increased US Corn production by a little bit and did not cut Argentine and Brazilian Corn production estimates as much as it could have. Demand was also trimmed on the domestic and export side. The markets heard about potential improvement in growing conditions in South America. Central Argentina got the best rains again and the other areas were still dry or got significantly less rain. Showers are now predicted for southern Brazil and the rest of Argentina and Paraguay and the situation there should become more stable. Northern Brazil is expected to be drier to help with conditions there.

Overnight News: Ethanol production rose to 1.053million barrels per day last week, from 1.006 million the previous week and from 945,000 barrels per day last year. Ethanol stocks are now 23.6 million barrels, from 22.9 million the previous week, and from 23.6 million barrels last year. The ethanol production used 108.4 million bushels of Corn last week, from 103.6 million the previous week, and from 95.5 million last year. Marketing year to date estimated Corn use to produce ethanol is 2.041 billion bushel. Unknown destinations bought 247,800 tons of US Corn.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 615 and 650 March. Support is at 604, 600, and 585 March, and resistance is at 614, 618, and 624 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 695 and 742 March. Support is at 622, 601, and 590 March, and resistance is at 666, 677, and 680 March.

SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed higher on ideas of new demand as rains returned to dry soils in South America over the weekend and are likely to continue. However, the benefits will be felt mostly in central Argentina and perhaps southern Argentina. Showers are forecast for southern Brazil, Paraguay, and much of Argentina early this week as well. New demand is now thought to come from China as rumors of new business with that destination hit the floor. Soybean Oil was higher on price strength in Palm Oil and Crude Oil. USDA on Wednesday showed less production of Soybeans for both Brazil and Argentina than the trade had expected. USDA showed a slight increase in production in the US and also an increase in ending stocks levels, but it was the South American estimates that caught the eyes of the market. The rains last week mostly fell in northern Brazil with southern Brazil, much of Argentina, and Paraguay still mostly dry. The drier areas are getting some precipitation now but central Argentina will get the best rains. Only scattered showers are forecast for the other areas although conditions are slated to improve somewhat in all of the dry areas,

Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1486 March. Support is at 1423, 1409, and 1378 March, and resistance is at 1437, 1444, and 1456 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 384.00 and 359.00 March. Support is at 390.00, 385.00, and 380.00 March, and resistance is at 415.00 420.00, and 426.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 6290 and 6320 March. Support is at 6140, 6000, and 5960 March, with resistance at 6380, 6500, and 6620 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today and moved to new contract highs. Crude Oil made new highs and Indonesia is once again using its own Palm Oil to produce bio fuels and also announced plans to restrict exports to promote lower costs at home for cooking oil. There are still poor production conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia. Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels. Production conditions have been very poor and workers are not often in the fields. Canola was higher along with the price action in Chicago. The rain in South America are no longer hurting Canola and Soybeans prices. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. The buy side thinks that Canola is fully priced but the farmers are still holding out for more. Chart trends are mixed for the daily charts.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 1040.00 and `1067.00 March. Support is at 996.00, 983.00, and 977.00 March, with resistance at 1027.00, 1038.00, and 1040.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 5260 April. Support is at 5110, 5040, and 4980 April, with resistance at 5240, 5300, and 5360 April.

DJ Malaysia Jan. 1-20 Palm Oil Exports 626,029 Tons, SGS Says

Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Jan. 1-20 period are estimated down 43.1% on month at 626,029 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Friday.

The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:

(All figures in metric tons)

Jan. 1-20 Dec. 1-20

RBD Palm Olein 243,767 322,752

RBD Palm Oil 57,294 84,913

RBD Palm Stearin 46,647 99,905

Crude Palm Oil 104,534 250,970

Total* 626,029 1,099,775

*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chance of snow this weekend. Temperatures should average near to nelow normal..

US Gulf Cash Basis


	Corn	HRW	SRW	Soybeans	Soybean Meal	Soybean Oil
June	July	May	May	May
July	July		July	July
Augustg	July		July	July
				[JS1]

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 20

WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures.

Source: ICE Futures

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

Price Basis Contract Change

CANOLA

*Par Region 1005.70 5.00 Mar. 2022 up 36.70

Basis: Thunder Bay 1067.00 45.00 Mar. 2022 up 21.30

Basis: Vancouver 1097.00 75.00 Mar. 2022 up 21.30

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,

or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 21

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports