About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for January USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed Jan 1 99.7 99.5- 100.0
Placed in Dec 101.8 100.0- 104.7
Marketed in Dec 100.9 100.2- 102.1
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Jan 1 in Dec in Dec
Allegiant Commodity Group 99.9 102.4 100.6
Allendale Inc. 99.6 102.0 102.0
HedgersEdge 100.0 104.7 102.1
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 99.5 100.2 100.5
NFC Markets 99.7 101.7 100.6
Texas A&M Extension 99.5 100.0 100.6
U.S. Commodities 99.9 102.8 100.2

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets closed higher on renewed demand hopes as Russia is ramping up pressure on Ukraine and as a war becomes more possible. The Russian embassy will be staffed with only the minimum required personnel and all other workers there will be sent home. Russia is escalating the crisis to test US and NATO resolve and a war is now more likely or at least some severe sanctions that could end the export programs for both Russia and Ukraine. Futures are now trading at the upper end of the current trading range and could confirm a bottom has formed later this week. The USDA reports released last Wednesday showed less domestic and export demand and higher than expected ending stocks levels. The Wheat seedings report showed more than expected planted area, especially for Soft Red Winter. It remains dry in the western Great Plains with no real relief in sight. Ideas had been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average or less against previous years. Futures have been moving lower since late November because of the poor export demand and might be finding a bottom now. Offer volumes are down in Europe. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production. The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia has announced sales quotas. Australian crop quality should be diminished.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will trend from below to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal in the west and below normal in the east.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 806 and 841 March. Support is at 780, 771, and 758 March, with resistance at 808, 824, and 840 March. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 775, 761, and 744 March, with resistance at 808, 811, and 829 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 915, 908, and 895 March, and resistance is at 965, 972, and 992 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher yesterday after trading both sides of unchanged. It was a consolidation day even though the daily trading range was wide once again. Trends are still up in the market. The USDA reports showed less production and imports and smaller ending stocks. Demand was trimmed as well, but the supply was cut more. Futures and cash market trading have been quiet until now and the cash market is still quiet but domestic mill business is around everywhere. Many producers are not interested in selling. Mills are showing more interest in the market as previously bought supplies start to run low. The cash market is reported to be relatively strong as prices have held firm despite the quiet activity.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1483 March. Support is at 1435, 1410, and 1404 March and resistance is at 1469, 1483, and 1488 March.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher again as Crude Oil once again rallied to new highs for the move and the short term trends are now up. Support came from the rallies in Wheat and Soybeans. USDA showed disappointing export sales in the weekly report on Thursday and rains have arrived to help dry soils in South America. USDA on Wednesday increased US Corn production by a little bit and did not cut Argentine and Brazilian Corn production estimates as much as it could have. Demand was also trimmed on the domestic and export side, with domestic food, seed, and industrial demand cut. Ending stocks were about 1.500 billion bushels. The markets heard about potential improvement in growing conditions in South America. Central Argentina got the best rains yesterday and the other areas were still dry or got significantly less rain. Showers are now predicted for southern Brazil and the rest of Argentina and Paraguay and the situation there should become more stable. Northern Brazil is expected to be drier to help with conditions there.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 615 and 650 March. Support is at 608, 604, and 600 March, and resistance is at 618, 624, and 628 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 695 and 742 March. Support is at 648, 622, and 601 March, and resistance is at 677, 680, and 695 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed higher as rains returned to dry soils in South America over the weekend and are likely to continue. However, the benefits will be felt mostly in central Argentina and perhaps southern Argentina. Showers are forecast for southern Brazil, Paraguay, and much of Argentina early this week as well. Soybean Oil was higher on price strength in Palm Oil and Crude Oil. USDA on Wednesday showed less production of Soybeans for both Brazil and Argentina than the trade had expected. USDA showed a slight increase in production in the US and also an increase in ending stocks levels, but it was the South American estimates that caught the eyes of the market. The rains last week mostly fell in northern Brazil with southern Brazil, much of Argentina, and Paraguay still mostly dry. The drier areas are getting some precipitation now but central Argentina will get the best rains. Only scattered showers are forecast for the other areas although conditions are slated to improve somewhat in all of the dry areas,
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1380, 1369, and 1350 March, and resistance is at 1401, 1416, and 1420 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 384.00 and 359.00 March. Support is at 390.00, 385.00, and 380.00 March, and resistance is at 404.00 415.00, and 420.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 6130, 6290, and 6320 March. Support is at 5960, 5870, and 56780 March, with resistance at 6140, 6260, and 6380 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today and moved to new contract highs. Crude Oil made new highs and Indonesia is once again using its own Palm Oil to produce bio fuels and also announced plans to restrict exports to promote lower costs at home for cooking oil. There are still poor production conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia. Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels. Production conditions have been very poor and workers are not often in the fields. Canola was higher along with the price action in Chicago, but neither market cared yesterday. The rain in South America is hurting Canola as well as Soybeans prices. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. The buy side thinks that Canola is fully priced but the farmers are still holding out for more. Chart trends are mixed for the daily charts.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 983.00, 977.00, and 959.00 March, with resistance at 1011.00, 1021.00, and 1027.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 5260 April. Support is at 5110, 5040, and 4980 April, with resistance at 5180, 5240, and 5300 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chance of snow this weekend. Temperatures should average near to nelow normal..

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
Augustg July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 18
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 980.20 5.00 Mar. 2022 dn 7.70
Basis: Thunder Bay 1009.00 45.00 Mar. 2022 dn 11.20
Basis: Vancouver 1039.20 75.00 Mar. 2022 dn 11.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 20
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 1,362.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 1,327.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1,257.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1,157.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 1,365.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 1,330.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1,260.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1,160.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 1,355.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 1,280.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 5,420.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 580.00 — Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.186)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 20
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 160,174 lots, or 9.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-22 5,900 5,963 5,892 5,959 5,849 5,932 83 120,691 132,349
May-22 5,928 5,988 5,918 5,984 5,882 5,958 76 24,953 32,235
Jul-22 5,890 5,968 5,890 5,968 5,870 5,939 69 12,871 32,223
Sep-22 5,898 5,949 5,883 5,944 5,859 5,926 67 1,197 4,391
Nov-22 5,865 5,919 5,865 5,912 5,844 5,897 53 424 5,293
Jan-23 5,834 5,868 5,798 5,866 5,796 5,844 48 38 70
Corn
Turnover: 612,580 lots, or 16.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-22 2,690 2,718 2,690 2,712 2,689 2,706 17 66,506 194,369
May-22 2,739 2,759 2,732 2,756 2,731 2,746 15 479,763 1,204,531
Jul-22 2,732 2,756 2,732 2,751 2,730 2,747 17 32,046 120,947
Sep-22 2,730 2,757 2,730 2,753 2,731 2,744 13 27,193 68,455
Nov-22 2,713 2,728 2,710 2,723 2,711 2,720 9 6,446 22,711
Jan-23 2,687 2,705 2,684 2,699 2,688 2,696 8 626 1,086
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,269,858 lots, or 41.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-22 3,324 3,399 3,324 3,395 3,321 3,375 54 56,542 226,994
May-22 3,184 3,247 3,175 3,243 3,153 3,221 68 1,007,446 1,351,217
Jul-22 3,170 3,239 3,170 3,236 3,148 3,207 59 43,034 222,580
Aug-22 3,251 3,305 3,242 3,305 3,221 3,284 63 14,988 113,324
Sep-22 3,226 3,298 3,226 3,296 3,215 3,276 61 107,829 271,454
Nov-22 3,205 3,272 3,201 3,266 3,184 3,243 59 23,711 44,631
Dec-22 3,205 3,264 3,192 3,257 3,182 3,235 53 13,750 6,971
Jan-23 3,184 3,242 3,181 3,233 3,149 3,221 72 2,558 5,111
Palm Oil
Turnover: 653,488 lots, or 61.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-22 10,406 10,556 10,406 10,480 10,406 10,504 98 1,328 6,618
Mar-22 10,110 10,254 10,098 10,196 10,098 10,178 80 33,383 74,886
Apr-22 9,740 9,888 9,736 9,848 9,742 9,820 78 7,843 54,298
May-22 9,286 9,454 9,280 9,414 9,294 9,368 74 569,947 517,537
Jun-22 8,974 9,146 8,974 9,110 9,004 9,040 36 22,936 52,621
Jul-22 8,782 8,936 8,778 8,908 8,814 8,854 40 6,596 19,309
Aug-22 8,656 8,722 8,612 8,704 8,600 8,672 72 8 2,380
Sep-22 8,494 8,628 8,458 8,610 8,504 8,564 60 11,105 22,355
Oct-22 – – – 8,398 8,398 8,398 0 0 200
Nov-22 8,286 8,468 8,286 8,452 8,332 8,370 38 200 1,446
Dec-22 8,208 8,362 8,208 8,362 8,238 8,298 60 11 37
Jan-23 8,092 8,230 8,076 8,216 8,062 8,154 92 131 247
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 681,985 lots, or 63.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-22 9,516 9,750 9,516 9,720 9,532 9,642 110 31,305 87,726
May-22 9,240 9,446 9,236 9,416 9,248 9,352 104 590,615 566,451
Jul-22 9,070 9,256 9,070 9,232 9,082 9,150 68 23,763 108,328
Aug-22 9,032 9,202 9,016 9,172 9,032 9,112 80 12,033 37,628
Sep-22 8,958 9,136 8,954 9,112 8,970 9,054 84 12,799 44,903
Nov-22 8,836 9,020 8,836 8,998 8,838 8,940 102 6,204 6,071
Dec-22 8,766 8,968 8,766 8,934 8,774 8,868 94 5,141 350
Jan-23 8,752 8,898 8,744 8,842 8,706 8,814 108 125 109
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322