Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton futures closed higher again yesterday on follow through buying as USDA said that export sales were very strong and well above the previous four week average. Futures closed at new highs for the move. The USDA reports from Wednesday showed less production but also a little less demand. Demand was cut on the export side but increased for the domestic side. Ending stocks were trimmed to 320,000 bales from 340,000 bales in the previous estimate. It’s been a demand market and prices have been sideways waiting for demand to catch up to the price. Ideas are that demand remains strong for US Cotton even with the weaker export sales reports over the last couple of weeks. Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future. US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation. Good US production is expected for next year as planted area is expected to increase due to high Cotton prices and the expense of planting Corn. Chart trends are up in this market.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and Southeast will get scattered showers and both areas will get near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 117.76 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 617 bales, from 617 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 12010 March. Support is at 11630, 11450, and 11270 March, with resistance of 12200, 12320 and 12440 March.
General Comments: FCOJ was mostly a little lower on what appeared to be some speculative profit taking and new commercial selling. The trends are still up on the daily charts on the reduced Florida Oranges production estimates seen last week. USDA cut its Oranges production estimate for Florida, but increased production when compared to the last report for the whole of the US. Production overall remains less on a year to year basis. The freeze season has arrived in Florida but the weather remains generally good for production in Florida and around the world. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good. Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for FCOJ for January delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 146.00, 143.00, and 140.00 March, with resistance at 154.00, 157.00, and 160.00 March.
General Comments: New York was little changed and London closed lower as the logistical and production problems in Brazil and Vietnam are still around. Speculators seemed to be the best sellers. Trends in London have turned down but trends in New York are still sideways or up. There was little reaction to the Cecafe export data or the Conab production estimate. Conab estimated Brazil Coffee production at just above 55 million bags due to the bad weather seen earlier in the year. Cecafe noted reduced esports again for the month. The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year. Big rains more recently in some Brazil growing areas have hurt cherry formation as well. Containers are not available in Vietnam or in Brazil to ship the Coffee. Brazil farmers have sold about 82% of the Coffee this year, from 74% average. Vietnam producers are also selling and some of the Robusta is going to the exchange in London as differentials have weakened. The harvest in Vietnam is now about 90% complete. Vietnam is getting scattered showers on the coast but dry conditions inland. The rest of Southeast Asia should get scattered showers in the islands and mostly dry conditions on the mainland. Production conditions for the next crop in Colombia are not good.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.387 million bags. GCA stocks are now 5.833 million bags, from 5.843 million last month. The ICO daily average price is now 204.95 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers near the coast and mostly dry conditions inland.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 247.00 and 256.00 March. Support is at 235.00, 232.00, and 227.00 March, and resistance is at 245.00, 248.00 and 252.00 March. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 2180, 2160, and 2140 March, and resistance is at 2250, 2270, and 2300 March[JS1] .
DJ Uganda Coffee Exports Jumped in December
By Nicholas Bariyo
KAMPALA Uganda–Uganda’s coffee exports jumped 28% by volume in December from a year earlier, boosted by favorable weather conditions as newly planted coffee trees continue to enter the production phase, Uganda Coffee Development Authority said Wednesday.
Coffee shipments jumped to 536,889 60-kilogram bags, up from the 419,338 bags exported in the same month of 2020 as exporters released more stocks amid improved global coffee prices.
Uganda’s total exports in the first three months of the 2021-22 coffee year rose 75% on year to a record $207 million. Uganda’s coffee year runs from October to September the following year.
“The positive trend in global coffee prices were attributed to weather related issues in Brazil and shortage of shipping containers which prompted exporters to release their stocks,” the government agency stated.
Uganda grows mainly the bitter tasting robusta coffee variety, which accounts for more than 70% of its exports. Shipments for robusta, used largely in freeze-dried coffees or in pods for kitchen-top espresso machines, rose by 18% in the first three months of the coffee year.
Uganda exports the bulk of its coffee beans to Europe, the U.S. and Asian markets.
Ugandan coffee shipments have been rising over the past three seasons in a row, signaling the success of Uganda’s coffee growing campaign as the country continues efforts to increase annual coffee production to 20 million bags by 2025.
General Comments: New York and London were higher again yesterday, with London leading the way as the market tries to ensure that there will be enough White Sugar production and imports from India and Thailand. Ideas are that stronger Crude Oil prices imply stronger ethanol prices for more ethanol production and less Sugar production in Brazil. Crude Oil closed higher and at new contract highs yesterday. There have been reports of improved growing conditions for the crops in central-south areas of Brazil. Showers were reported in central south areas last weekend and will continue into the first part of this week and crops should benefit from the return of moisture to the region. Ideas are that the supplies are available from India and Thailand as harvests there are off to a good start but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market. Trends are turning up in the market as futures have formed a bottom.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1925, 2010, and 2040 March. Support is at 1850, 1840, and 1820 March and resistance is at 1880, 1910, and 1960 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 522.00 and 532.00 March. Support is at 505.00, 500.00, and 495.00 March and resistance is at 513.00, 516.00, and 520.00 March.
General Comments: New York closed lower and London was mostly higher yesterday in range trading and on ideas of better demand as the weather is generally good for West Africa and Southeast Asia. Trends are turning up again in both markets. Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around. Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results. The European grind data should be released on today and the North American grind data should be released on Thursday.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.583 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2680 March. Support is at 2600, 2560, and 2530 March, with resistance at 2680, 2700, and 2730 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1780 March. Support is at 1730, 1700, and 1690 March, with resistance at 1790, 1810, and 1830 March.Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322