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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 01/19/2022

By Jack Scoville On January 19, 2022 - 10:23 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for January USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report

The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) Friday.

Average Range

of estimates of estimates

On-feed Jan 1 99.7 99.5- 100.0

Placed in Dec 101.8 100.0- 104.7

Marketed in Dec 100.9 100.2- 102.1

Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed

Jan 1 in Dec in Dec

Allegiant Commodity Group 99.9 102.4 100.6

Allendale Inc. 99.6 102.0 102.0

HedgersEdge 100.0 104.7 102.1

Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 99.5 100.2 100.5

NFC Markets 99.7 101.7 100.6

Texas A&M Extension 99.5 100.0 100.6

U.S. Commodities 99.9 102.8 100.2

WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat markets closed higher on renewed demand hopes as Russia is threatening Ukraine more seriously. The Russian embassy will be staffed with only the minimum required personnel and all other workers there will be sent home. Russia is escalating the crisis to test US and NATO resolve and a war is now more likely or at least some severe sanctions that could end the export programs for both Russia and Ukraine. Futures are now trading at the upper end of the current trading range and could confirm a bottom has formed later this week. The USDA reports released last Wednesday showed less domestic and export demand and higher than expected ending stocks levels. The Wheat seedings report showed more than expected planted area, especially for Soft Red Winter. It remains dry in the western Great Plains with no real relief in sight. Ideas had been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average or less against previous years. Futures have been moving lower since late November because of the poor export demand and might be finding a bottom now. Offer volumes are down in Europe. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production. The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia has announced sales quotas. Australian crop quality should be diminished.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will trend from below to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal in the west and below normal in the east.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 758, 747, and 737 March, with resistance at 771, 776, and 792 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 760, 744, and 732 March, with resistance at 793, 808, and 811 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 871 March. Support is at 895, 871, and 851 March, and resistance is at 915, 923, and 940 March.

RICE:

General Comments: Rice was a little lower yesterday after trading both sides of unchanged. It was a consolidation day even though the daily trading range weas very wide. The USDA reports showed less production and imports and smaller ending stocks. Demand was trimmed as well, but the supply was cut more. Futures and cash market trading have been quiet until now and the cash market is still quiet but domestic mill business is around everywhere. Many producers are not interested in selling. Mills are showing more interest in the market as previously bought supplies start to run low. The cash market is reported to be relatively strong as prices have held firm despite the quiet activity.

Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1483 March. Support is at 1435, 1410, and 1404 March and resistance is at 1469, 1483, and 1488 March.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jan 19

USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices

of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields

and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)

and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA

—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate

Milled Value Rough Rough

($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)

Long Grain 14.08 8.96 0.00

Medium/Short Grain 14.05 8.99 0.00

Brokens 8.93 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:

General Comments: Corn closed a little higher as Crude Oil rallied to new highs for the move and the short term trends remain sideways. Support came from the rally in Wheat while selling developed with the weakness in Soybeans. USDA showed disappointing export sales in the weekly report on Thursday and rains have arrived to help dry soils in South America. USDA on Wednesday increased US Corn production by a little bit and did not cut Argentine and Brazilian Corn production estimates as much as it could have. Demand was also trimmed on the domestic and export side, with domestic food, seed, and industrial demand cut. Ending stocks were about 1.500 billion bushels. The markets heard about potential improvement in growing conditions in South America. Central Argentina got the best rains yesterday and the other areas were still dry or got significantly less rain. Showers are now predicted for southern Brazil and the rest of Argentina and Paraguay and the situation there should become more stable. Northern Brazil is expected to be drier to help with conditions there.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 576, 572, and 567 March, and resistance is at 601, 608, and 611 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 622, 601, and 595 March, and resistance is at 650, 655, and 677 March.

SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower as rains returned to dry soils in South America over the weekend. Showers are forecast for southern Brazil, Paraguay, and much of Argentina early this week as well. Soybean Oil was higher on price strength in Palm Oil and Crude Oil. USDA on Wednesday showed less production of Soybeans for both Brazil and Argentina than the trade had expected. USDA showed a slight increase in production in the US and also an increase in ending stocks levels, but it was the South American estimates that caught the eyes of the market. The rains last week mostly fell in northern Brazil with southern Brazil, much of Argentina, and Paraguay still mostly dry. The drier areas are getting some capitationion now but central Argenina will get the best rains. Only scattered showers are forecast for the other areas although conditions are slated t impove somewhat in all of the dry areas,

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1336 and 1301 March. Support is at 1348, 1336, and 1320 March, and resistance is at 1379, 1401, and 1416 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 384.00 and 359.00 March. Support is at 385.00, 380.00, and 372.00 March, and resistance is at 404.00 415.00, and 420.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5750, 5690, and 5630 March, with resistance at 5980, 6000, and 6040 March.

DJ Soybean Crush More Than Expected — Market Talk

1244 ET – Soybeans crushed in the US hit a higher-than-expected rate in December, according to the National Oilseed Processors Association. In its latest report, NOPA says that soybeans were crushed at a rate of 186.4M bushels. This is 1.4M bushels more than expected by traders. It’s also up from the previous month’s rate, as well as 183.2M bushels at this time last year.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today and moved to new contract highs. Crude Oil made new highs and Indonesia is once again using its own Palm Oil to produce bio fuels. There are still poor production conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia. Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels. Production conditions have been very poor and workers are not often in the fields. Canola was lower again and price trends are down. The rain in South America is hurting Canola as well as Soybeans prices. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. The buy side thinks that Canola is fully priced but the farmers are still holding out for more. Chart trends are down for the daily charts and futures are at the low end of the trading range on the weekly charts after a failed move higher.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 945.00, 938.00, and 933.00 March, with resistance at 971.00, 985.00, and 991.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 5090 and 5260 April. Support is at 4890, 4840, and 4760 April, with resistance at 5060, 5120, and 5180 April.

DJ Malaysia Jan. 1-15 Palm Oil Exports Down 42% on Month, SGS Says

Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Jan. 1-15 period are estimated down 42.2% on month at 456,274 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Wednesday.

The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:

(All figures in metric tons)

Jan.1-15 Dec. 1-15

RBD Palm Olein 173,017 259,062

RBD Palm Oil 36,894 52,863

RBD Palm Stearin 25,517 61,605

Crude Palm Oil 91,034 177,870

Total* 456,274 789,549

*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chance of snow this weekend. Temperatures should average near to nelow normal..

US Gulf Cash Basis


	Corn	HRW	SRW	Soybeans	Soybean Meal	Soybean Oil
June	July	May	May	May
July	July		July	July
Augustg	July		July	July
				[JS1]

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 18

WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures.

Source: ICE Futures

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

Price Basis Contract Change

CANOLA

*Par Region 980.20 5.00 Mar. 2022 dn 7.70

Basis: Thunder Bay 1009.00 45.00 Mar. 2022 dn 11.20

Basis: Vancouver 1039.20 75.00 Mar. 2022 dn 11.20

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,

or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 19

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports