About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for January USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report 

  The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) Friday.

                                Average            Range

                              of estimates      of estimates

  On-feed Jan 1                   99.7           99.5- 100.0

  Placed in Dec                  101.8          100.0- 104.7

  Marketed in Dec                100.9          100.2- 102.1

   Analyst                      On-Feed        Placements    Marketed

                                Jan 1          in Dec        in Dec

   Allegiant Commodity Group     99.9           102.4        100.6

   Allendale Inc.                99.6           102.0        102.0

   HedgersEdge                  100.0           104.7        102.1

   Livestock Mktg Info Ctr       99.5           100.2        100.5

   NFC Markets                   99.7           101.7        100.6

   Texas A&M Extension           99.5           100.0        100.6

   U.S. Commodities              99.9           102.8        100.2

WHEAT 

General Comments:   Wheat markets closed higher on renewed demand hopes as Russia is threatening Ukraine more seriously.  The Russian embassy will be staffed with only the minimum required personnel and all other workers there will be sent home.  Russia is escalating the crisis to test US and NATO resolve and a war is now more likely or at least some severe sanctions that could end the export programs for both Russia and Ukraine.  Futures are now trading at the upper end of the current trading range and could confirm a bottom has formed later this week.  The USDA reports released last Wednesday showed less domestic and export demand and higher than expected ending stocks levels.  The Wheat seedings report showed more than expected planted area, especially for Soft Red Winter.  It remains dry in the western Great Plains with no real relief in sight.  Ideas had been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average or less against previous years.  Futures have been moving lower since late November because of the poor export demand and might be finding a bottom now.  Offer volumes are down in Europe.  Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production.  The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia has announced sales quotas.  Australian crop quality should be diminished.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers.  Temperatures should average below normal.  Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will trend from below to above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions or isolated showers.  Temperatures should average above normal in the west and below normal in the east.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 758, 747, and 737 March, with resistance at 771, 776, and 792 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 760, 744, and 732 March, with resistance at 793, 808, and 811 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 871 March.  Support is at 895, 871, and 851 March, and resistance is at 915, 923, and 940 March.

RICE: 

General Comments:  Rice was a little lower yesterday after trading both sides of unchanged.  It was a consolidation day even though the daily trading range weas very wide.  The USDA reports showed less production and imports and smaller ending stocks.  Demand was trimmed as well, but the supply was cut more.  Futures and cash market trading have been quiet until now and the cash market is still quiet but domestic mill business is around everywhere.  Many producers are not interested in selling.  Mills are showing more interest in the market as previously bought supplies start to run low.  The cash market is reported to be relatively strong as prices have held firm despite the quiet activity.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1483 March.  Support is at 1435, 1410, and 1404 March and resistance is at 1469, 1483, and 1488 March.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jan 19 

 USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices

of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields

and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)

and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA

                    —–World Price—–      MLG/LDP Rate

                     Milled Value  Rough      Rough

                     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)

Long Grain            14.08         8.96       0.00

Medium/Short Grain    14.05         8.99       0.00

Brokens                8.93         —-       —-

CORN AND OATS: 

General Comments:  Corn closed a little higher as Crude Oil rallied to new highs for the move and the short term trends remain sideways.  Support came from the rally in Wheat while selling developed with the weakness in Soybeans.  USDA showed disappointing export sales in the weekly report on Thursday and rains have arrived to help dry soils in South America.   USDA on Wednesday increased US Corn production by a little bit and did not cut Argentine and Brazilian Corn production estimates as much as it could have.  Demand was also trimmed on the domestic and export side, with domestic food, seed, and industrial demand cut.  Ending stocks were about 1.500 billion bushels. The markets heard about potential improvement in growing conditions in South America.  Central Argentina got the best rains yesterday and the other areas were still dry or got significantly less rain.  Showers are now predicted for southern Brazil and the rest of Argentina and Paraguay and the situation there should become more stable.  Northern Brazil is expected to be drier to help with conditions there.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 576, 572, and 567 March, and resistance is at 601, 608, and 611 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 622, 601, and 595 March, and resistance is at 650, 655, and 677 March.

SOYBEANS 

General Comments:  Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower as rains returned to dry soils in South America over the weekend.  Showers are forecast for southern Brazil, Paraguay, and much of Argentina early this week as well.  Soybean Oil was higher on price strength in Palm Oil and Crude Oil.  USDA on Wednesday showed less production of Soybeans for both Brazil and Argentina than the trade had expected.  USDA showed a slight increase in production in the US and also an increase in ending stocks levels, but it was the South American estimates that caught the eyes of the market.   The rains last week mostly fell in northern Brazil with southern Brazil, much of Argentina, and Paraguay still mostly dry.  The drier areas are getting some capitationion now but central Argenina will get the best rains.  Only scattered showers are forecast for the other areas although conditions are slated t impove somewhat in all of the dry areas,

Overnight News:   

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1336 and 1301 March.  Support is at 1348, 1336, and 1320 March, and resistance is at 1379, 1401, and 1416 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 384.00 and 359.00 March.   Support is at 385.00, 380.00, and 372.00 March, and resistance is at 404.00 415.00, and 420.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 5750, 5690, and 5630 March, with resistance at 5980, 6000, and 6040 March.

DJ Soybean Crush More Than Expected — Market Talk 

     1244 ET – Soybeans crushed in the US hit a higher-than-expected rate in December, according to the National Oilseed Processors Association. In its latest report, NOPA says that soybeans were crushed at a rate of 186.4M bushels. This is 1.4M bushels more than expected by traders. It’s also up from the previous month’s rate, as well as 183.2M bushels at this time last year.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL 

General Comments:  Palm Oil was higher today and moved to new contract highs.  Crude Oil made new highs and Indonesia is once again using its own Palm Oil to produce bio fuels.  There are still poor production conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia.  Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels.  Production conditions have been very poor and workers are not often in the fields.  Canola was lower again and price trends are down.  The rain in South America is hurting Canola as well as Soybeans prices.  Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year.  The buy side thinks that Canola is fully priced but the farmers are still holding out for more.  Chart trends are down for the daily charts and futures are at the low end of the trading range on the weekly charts after a failed move higher.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are down with no objectives.  Support is at 945.00, 938.00, and 933.00 March, with resistance at 971.00, 985.00, and 991.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 5090 and 5260 April.  Support is at 4890, 4840, and 4760 April, with resistance at 5060, 5120, and 5180 April.

DJ Malaysia Jan. 1-15 Palm Oil Exports Down 42% on Month, SGS Says 

  Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Jan. 1-15 period are estimated down 42.2% on month at 456,274 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Wednesday.

  The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:

  (All figures in metric tons)

                        Jan.1-15      Dec. 1-15

   RBD Palm Olein        173,017       259,062

   RBD Palm Oil          36,894        52,863

   RBD Palm Stearin      25,517        61,605

   Crude Palm Oil        91,034        177,870

   Total*                456,274       789,549

  *Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

  SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.  

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Chance of snow this weekend.  Temperatures should average near to nelow normal..

US Gulf Cash Basis 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn 

HRW 

SRW 

Soybeans 

Soybean Meal 

Soybean Oil 

June 

 July 

 May 

 May 

 May 

July 

 July 

 July 

 July 

Augustg 

 July 

 July 

 July 

 

 

[JS1] 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 18 

     WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures.

     Source: ICE Futures

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

                     Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA  

*Par Region          980.20     5.00     Mar. 2022    dn  7.70  

Basis: Thunder Bay  1009.00    45.00     Mar. 2022    dn 11.20

Basis: Vancouver    1039.20    75.00     Mar. 2022    dn 11.20

     All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

     *Quote for previous day

     Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,

or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 19 

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

                Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb             1,352.50   +25.00      Unquoted   –        –

Mar             1,307.50   +20.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun     1,242.50   +25.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep     1,142.50   +20.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB,     Malaysian ports

                 Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb              1,355.00   +25.00      Unquoted   –        –

Mar              1,310.00   +20.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun      1,245.00   +25.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep      1,145.00   +20.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB,  Malaysian ports

                 Offer      Change       Bid       Change   Traded

Feb              1,350.00    —          Unquoted  –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

                 Offer       Change       Bid        Change   Traded

Feb              1,290.00     —          Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                 Offer       Change        Bid        Change   Traded

Feb              5,400.00     —           Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                 Offer      Change         Bid        Change   Traded

Feb              580.00      —            Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.192)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 19 

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 163,327 lots, or 9.56 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Mar-22     5,841     5,897     5,810     5,885     5,835     5,849        14   124,033   142,214

May-22     5,871     5,925     5,842     5,916     5,877     5,882         5    26,351    35,599

Jul-22     5,862     5,908     5,831     5,900     5,864     5,870         6    11,437    32,386

Sep-22     5,849     5,887     5,816     5,881     5,847     5,859        12       929     4,206

Nov-22     5,830     5,867     5,805     5,867     5,835     5,844         9       546     5,276

Jan-23     5,792     5,818     5,786     5,818     5,796     5,796         0        31        50

Corn

Turnover: 653,404 lots, or 17.82 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

Mar-22     2,681     2,704     2,677     2,694     2,686     2,689         3    65,586     197,521

May-22     2,719     2,745     2,711     2,733     2,721     2,731        10   531,564   1,150,594

Jul-22     2,717     2,743     2,716     2,733     2,722     2,730         8    27,559     116,861

Sep-22     2,720     2,744     2,715     2,734     2,722     2,731         9    21,777      59,653

Nov-22     2,701     2,720     2,698     2,711     2,705     2,711         6     6,566      21,985

Jan-23     2,683     2,697     2,683     2,685     2,682     2,688         6       352         720

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,141,935 lots, or 36.20 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

Mar-22     3,311     3,346     3,288     3,336     3,321     3,321         0    60,162     237,998

May-22     3,143     3,183     3,121     3,177     3,161     3,153        -8   856,746   1,388,303

Jul-22     3,142     3,179     3,119     3,171     3,158     3,148       -10    58,170     217,824

Aug-22     3,212     3,250     3,181     3,242     3,221     3,221         0    11,812     114,210

Sep-22     3,198     3,244     3,180     3,237     3,213     3,215         2   118,196     269,510

Nov-22     3,165     3,210     3,152     3,204     3,186     3,184        -2    20,706      45,190

Dec-22     3,163     3,205     3,155     3,197     3,185     3,182        -3    11,532       6,900

Jan-23     3,159     3,192     3,131     3,180     3,172     3,149       -23     4,611       4,395

Palm Oil

Turnover: 879,126 lots, or 81.89 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Feb-22    10,234    10,564    10,234    10,414    10,232    10,406       174     1,982     7,556

Mar-22     9,968    10,250     9,938    10,110     9,920    10,098       178    39,076    74,008

Apr-22     9,610     9,882     9,574     9,744     9,566     9,742       176    17,352    53,790

May-22     9,160     9,442     9,130     9,286     9,126     9,294       168   769,480   528,103

Jun-22     8,866     9,150     8,854     8,974     8,826     9,004       178    28,077    48,890

Jul-22     8,672     8,952     8,662     8,798     8,646     8,814       168     8,743    18,589

Aug-22     8,584     8,672     8,476     8,646     8,492     8,600       108     1,497     2,382

Sep-22     8,388     8,630     8,364     8,478     8,368     8,504       136    12,480    21,504

Oct-22     8,330     8,440     8,330     8,426     8,282     8,398       116         6       200

Nov-22     8,310     8,400     8,306     8,310     8,172     8,332       160       133     1,619

Dec-22     8,180     8,280     8,180     8,264     8,124     8,238       114        10        38

Jan-23     8,044     8,150     8,014     8,082     8,008     8,062        54       290       218

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 838,943 lots, or 77.48 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Mar-22     9,462     9,656     9,426     9,524     9,470     9,532        62    35,350    90,184

May-22     9,158     9,372     9,136     9,234     9,172     9,248        76   726,514   560,739

Jul-22     8,998     9,206     8,978     9,070     8,998     9,082        84    24,930   102,843

Aug-22     8,942     9,150     8,920     9,006     8,950     9,032        82    12,875    37,354

Sep-22     8,868     9,084     8,852     8,944     8,884     8,970        86    18,660    43,235

Nov-22     8,756     8,966     8,738     8,828     8,772     8,838        66    10,893     6,016

Dec-22     8,692     8,892     8,656     8,756     8,692     8,774        82     9,497       325

Jan-23     8,644     8,828     8,622     8,712     8,644     8,706        62       224        77

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322