Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Softs Report 01/18/2022
COTTON
General Comments: Cotton futures closed higher last week as USDA said that export sales were very strong and well above the previous four week average. The USDA reports from Wednesday showed less production but also a little less demand. Demand was cut on the export side but increased for the domestic side. Ending stocks were trimmed to 320,000 bales from 340,000 bales in the previous estimate. It’s been a demand market and prices have been sideways waiting for demand to catch up to the price. Ideas are that demand remains strong for US Cotton even with the weaker export sales reports over the last couple of weeks. Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future. US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation. Good US production is expected for next year as planted area is expected to increase due to high Cotton prices and the expense of planting Corn. Chart trends are up in this market.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get scattered showers this weekend and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 116.38 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 617 bales, from 617 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 12010 March. Support is at 11630, 11450, and 11270 March, with resistance of 12200, 12320 and 12440 March.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 11, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 295,100
: Positions :
: 83,672 8,892 61,836 44,716 208,856 83,476 6,839 273,701 286,423: 21,399 8,677
: Changes from: January 4, 2022 (Change in open interest: 2,813) :
: -2,815 -362 4,539 1,971 -1,731 -1,864 481 1,831 2,926: 982 -114
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 28.4 3.0 21.0 15.2 70.8 28.3 2.3 92.7 97.1: 7.3 2.9
: Total Traders: 285 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 124 36 78 56 65 48 19 255 176:
——————————————————————————————————————-
FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher and made new contract highs and trends are still up on the daily charts on the reduced Florida Oranges production estimates. USDA cut its Oranges production estimate for Florida, but increased production when compared to the last report for the whole of the US. Production overall remains less on a year to year basis. The freeze season is coming to Florida but the weather remains generally good for production in Florida and around the world. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good. Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for FCOJ for January delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 146.00, 143.00, and 140.00 March, with resistance at 154.00, 157.00, and 160.00 March.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 11, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 13,706 :
: Positions :
: 3,601 10,419 1,767 0 1 2,398 81 29 1,401 238 1,758 :
: Changes from: January 4, 2022 :
: -658 106 -30 0 -4 435 -292 -7 181 -65 165 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 26.3 76.0 12.9 0.0 0.0 17.5 0.6 0.2 10.2 1.7 12.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 67 :
: 16 15 5 0 . 15 . . 21 . 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE
General Comments: New York was higher last week and London closed lower as the logistical and production problems in Brazil and Vietnam are still around. Producers and speculators seemed to be the best sellers. Trends in London have turned down but trends in New York are still sideways or up. The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year. Big rains more recently in some Brazil growing areas have hurt cherry formation as well. Containers are not available in Vietnam or in Brazil to ship the Coffee. Brazil farmers have sold about 82% of the Coffee this year, from 74% average. Vietnam producers are also selling and some of the Robusta is going to the exchange in London as differentials have weakened. The harvest in Vietnam is now about 90% complete. Vietnam is getting scattered showers on the coast but dry conditions inland. The rest of Southeast Asia should get scattered showers in the islands and mostly dry conditions on the mainland. Production conditions for the next crop in Colombia are not good.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.409 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 205.28 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers near the coast and mostly dry conditions inland.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 247.00 and 256.00 March. Support is at 235.00, 232.00, and 227.00 March, and resistance is at 245.00, 248.00 and 252.00 March. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 2180, 2160, and 2140 March, and resistance is at 2250, 2270, and 2300 March[JS1] .
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 11, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 338,178
: Positions :
: 51,965 8,936 111,716 97,480 192,416 66,161 17,856 327,321 330,924: 10,857 7,254
: :
: Changes from: January 4, 2022 (Change in open interest: 5,403) :
: 2,884 -1,728 5,357 3,132 1,124 -6,310 587 5,062 5,339: 341 64
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.4 2.6 33.0 28.8 56.9 19.6 5.3 96.8 97.9: 3.2 2.1
: :
: Total Traders: 446 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 161 67 143 130 137 46 19 397 321:
——————————————————————————————————————-
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 01/11/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
132,271 47,958 89,421 3,604 9,766 898
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 36.3% 67.6% 2.7% 7.4% 0.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
150 41 48 9 6 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
48,910 4,351 6,837 2,040 2,202 16,298
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
37.0% 3.3% 5.2% 1.5% 1.7% 12.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
46 7 12 15 8 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,726 2,498
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.3% 1.9%
DJ Brazil Coffee Exports Fell 14.1% in Dec. to 3.8M Bags, Cecafe Says — Update
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SÃO PAULO — Brazilian coffee exports fell in December amid continuing though improving logistics bottlenecks that have slowed sales abroad, according to exporters group Cecafe.
The South American country exported 3.8 million 132-pound bags of coffee last month, a decline of 14.1% from the same month a year earlier, Cecafe said Monday. Sales abroad of the arabica variety of coffee fell 12.2% to 3.2 million bags, while exports of robusta beans plunged 66% to 131,056 bags.
Exports of ground, roast and soluble coffee rose 19.4% to 457,245 bags, Cecafe said.
A lack of containers and delays at ports stemming from the coronavirus pandemic have slowed exports and caused supply problems and shortages around the world. The number of containers exporting coffee from Brazil dropped 9.8% in 2021 compared with 2020, according to Cecafe.
The flow of coffee from Brazilian ports began to improve in December, partly because of a return to “break bulk” shipping in some cases, the group said. Break bulk is a system in which goods are shipped as separate pieces in dry bulk vessels; in the case of Brazilian coffee in large bags containing a metric ton of beans instead of in containers.
DJ Brazil to Produce 2022 Total Coffee Crop of 55.74M Bags
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazil’s coffee harvest will be smaller than normal in 2022 because of unusually dry weather and frosts in some areas last year that had a negative effect on the development of the plants, national agricultural agency Conab said in its first report on this year’s crop.
The country’s farmers will produce a total of 55.74 million 132-pound bags of coffee this year, up from 47.72 million bags in 2021 and down from 63.08 million bags in 2020. Brazil’s coffee production works on a two-year cycle, with larger crops in even-numbered years then smaller crops in odd-numbered years as the plants “rest” and recover.
The total coffee harvest for 2022 will be the smallest for an even-numbered year since 2016, when the country produced 51.37 million bags, according to Conab.
Brazil is the world’s biggest producer and exporter of the more sought-after arabica variety of coffee, and the second-biggest producer of robusta coffee, after Vietnam. The arabica crop is much more affected by the two-year growth cycle than the robusta crop.
The South American country will grow 38.78 million bags of arabica this year, compared with 31.42 million bags last year and 48.74 million bags in 2020. It would be the smallest arabica crop for an even-numbered year since 2014, when Brazil produced 32.31 million bags of the variety.
The robusta crop will reach 16.96 million bags in 2022, up from 16.29 million bags in 2021 and from 14.3 million bags in 2020. The robusta crop was slammed in 2016 by a drought in the state of Espirito Santo, the main producer of the variety in Brazil, that slashed production to 7.99 million bags. Since then production has risen again to current levels.
Scant rain in Minas Gerais state, Brazil’s biggest grower of arabica, and in neighboring Sao Paulo state last year hurt the growth of the branches that this year will bear the fruit inside which the coffee beans are growing. Frosts in parts of those states in July and August 2021 also hurt the plants, Conab said.
SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher last week, with London leading the way as the market tries to ensure that there will be enough White Sugar production and imports from India and Thailand. Ideas are that stronger Crude Oil prices imply stronger ethanol prices for more ethanol production and less Sugar production in Brazil. There have been reports of improved growing conditions for the crops in central-south areas of Brazil. Sugar crops in these areas got a lot of help from the recent rains but many of these areas are drier again. More showers are in the forecast for central south areas this weekend and into next week and crops should benefit from the return of moisture to the region. Ideas are that the supplies are available from India and Thailand as harvests there are off to a good start but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market. Trends are turning mixed or up in the market as futures are forming a bottom.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1760, 1750, and 1720 March and resistance is at 1850, 1880, and 1910 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 506.00, 522.00, and 532.00 March. Support is at 495.00, 492.00, and 487.00 March and resistance is at 506.00, 509.00, and 513.00 March.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 11, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,044,324
: Positions :
: 120,844 82,776 220,686 363,710 593,846 259,306 80,028 964,547 977,337: 79,777 66,987
: Changes from: January 4, 2022 (Change in open interest: 20,768) :
: -18,388 31,656 11,636 30,085 -35,842 -2,972 4,581 20,361 12,030: 407 8,737
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.6 7.9 21.1 34.8 56.9 24.8 7.7 92.4 93.6: 7.6 6.4
: Total Traders: 259 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 71 55 81 83 73 41 18 231 193:
——————————————————————————————————————-
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 01/11/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
62,418 33,760 47,262 7,501 1,671 2,002
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 54.1% 75.7% 12.0% 2.7% 3.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
103 36 37 8 3 5
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
7,906 4,124 3,715 2,629 145 668
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
12.7% 6.6% 6.0% 4.2% 0.2% 1.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
19 12 11 7 3 5
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,237 2,831
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.8% 4.5%
COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were both higher last week on ideas of better demand as the weather is generally good for West Africa and Southeast Asia. Trends are turning up again in both markets. Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around. Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results. Ivory Coast said that it has ground 52,000 tons of Cocoa in December, up 2% from last year. Year to date arrivals in Ivory Coast are now 6.4% below last year. Ghana arrivals are down 53.9% from last year. Fourth quarter grind data from Europe and North America, will be released next week. The Asian grind data was released on Friday and showed a 6% increase in the grind.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.583 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2610, 2620, and 2680 March. Support is at 2550, 2510, and 2480 March, with resistance at 2630, 2650, and 2670 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1780 March. Support is at 1730, 1700, and 1690 March, with resistance at 1780, 1810, and 1830 March.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 11, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 274,768
: Positions :
: 25,056 35,377 62,197 112,871 135,668 61,790 32,575 261,915 265,817: 12,854 8,951
: Changes from: January 4, 2022 (Change in open interest: 2,834) :
: 3,407 -2,784 2,196 -3,786 4,380 893 384 2,709 4,176: 125 -1,341
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.1 12.9 22.6 41.1 49.4 22.5 11.9 95.3 96.7: 4.7 3.3
: Total Traders: 226 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 62 68 77 52 37 31 23 192 164:
——————————————————————————————————————-
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 01/11/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
307,239 184,983 216,377 42,568 12,420 8,481
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 60.2% 70.4% 13.9% 4.0% 2.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
135 49 35 11 8 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
26,640 32,243 9,110 8,610 561 25,027
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.7% 10.5% 3.0% 2.8% 0.2% 8.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
21 24 19 13 4 15
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
1,820 3,020
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.6% 1.0%
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322