About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON        

General Comments:  Cotton futures closed higher last week as USDA said that export sales were very strong and well above the previous four week average.  The USDA reports from Wednesday showed less production but also a little less demand.  Demand was cut on the export side but increased for the domestic side.  Ending stocks were trimmed to 320,000 bales from 340,000 bales in the previous estimate.  It’s been a demand market and prices have been sideways waiting for demand to catch up to the price.  Ideas are that demand remains strong for US Cotton even with the weaker export sales reports over the last couple of weeks.  Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future.  US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation.  Good US production is expected for next year as planted area is expected to increase due to high Cotton prices and the expense of planting Corn.  Chart trends are up in this market.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get scattered showers this weekend and near to below normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 116.38 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 617 bales, from 617 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 12010 March.  Support is at 11630, 11450, and 11270 March, with resistance of 12200, 12320 and 12440 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 11, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #033661                                                              Open Interest is   295,100

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   83,672     8,892    61,836    44,716   208,856    83,476     6,839   273,701   286,423:   21,399     8,677

    : Changes from: January 4, 2022            (Change in open interest:       2,813)         :

    :   -2,815      -362     4,539     1,971    -1,731    -1,864       481     1,831     2,926:      982      -114

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     28.4       3.0      21.0      15.2      70.8      28.3       2.3      92.7      97.1:      7.3       2.9

    : Total Traders:   285          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      124        36        78        56        65        48        19       255       176:

——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ was higher and made new contract highs and trends are still up on the daily charts on the reduced Florida Oranges production estimates.  USDA cut its Oranges production estimate for Florida, but increased production when compared to the last report for the whole of the US.  Production overall remains less on a year to year basis.  The freeze season is coming to Florida but the weather remains generally good for production in Florida and around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.

Overnight News:  Florida should get isolated showers.  Temperatures will average near normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for FCOJ for January delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives.  Support is at 146.00, 143.00, and 140.00 March, with resistance at 154.00, 157.00, and 160.00 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 11, 2022

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               :

CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is    13,706                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    3,601    10,419     1,767         0         1     2,398        81        29     1,401       238     1,758 :

: Changes from:     January 4, 2022                                                                            :

:     -658       106       -30         0        -4       435      -292        -7       181       -65       165 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     26.3      76.0      12.9       0.0       0.0      17.5       0.6       0.2      10.2       1.7      12.8 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    67                     :

:       16        15         5         0         .        15         .         .        21         .         7 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE   

General Comments:  New York was higher last week and London closed lower as the logistical and production problems in Brazil and Vietnam are still around.  Producers and speculators seemed to be the best sellers.  Trends in London have turned down but trends in New York are still sideways or up.  The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year.  Big rains more recently in some Brazil growing areas have hurt cherry formation as well.  Containers are not available in Vietnam or in Brazil to ship the Coffee.  Brazil farmers have sold about 82% of the Coffee this year, from 74% average.  Vietnam producers are also selling and some of the Robusta is going to the exchange in London as differentials have weakened.  The harvest in Vietnam is now about 90% complete.  Vietnam is getting scattered showers on the coast but dry conditions inland.  The rest of Southeast Asia should get scattered showers in the islands and mostly dry conditions on the mainland.  Production conditions for the next crop in Colombia are not good.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.409 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 205.28 ct/lb.  Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get mostly dry conditions.  Vietnam will see scattered showers near the coast and mostly dry conditions inland.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 247.00 and 256.00 March.  Support is at 235.00, 232.00, and 227.00 March, and resistance is at 245.00, 248.00 and 252.00 March.  Trends in London are down with no objectives.   Support is at 2180, 2160, and 2140 March, and resistance is at 2250, 2270, and 2300 March[JS1] .

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 11, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #083731                                                              Open Interest is   338,178

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   51,965     8,936   111,716    97,480   192,416    66,161    17,856   327,321   330,924:   10,857     7,254

    :                                                                                         :

    : Changes from: January 4, 2022            (Change in open interest:       5,403)         :

    :    2,884    -1,728     5,357     3,132     1,124    -6,310       587     5,062     5,339:      341        64

    :                                                                                         :

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     15.4       2.6      33.0      28.8      56.9      19.6       5.3      96.8      97.9:      3.2       2.1

    :                                                                                         :

    : Total Traders:   446          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      161        67       143       130       137        46        19       397       321:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options 

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 01/11/2022

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long      Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  132,271       47,958        89,421        3,604     9,766         898

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          36.3%         67.6%         2.7%      7.4%          0.7%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   150            41            48            9         6            8

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                      Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

  48,910         4,351         6,837     2,040        2,202          16,298

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  37.0%          3.3%          5.2%      1.5%         1.7%           12.3%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    46            7             12        15           8               18

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  5,726        2,498

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  4.3%         1.9%

DJ Brazil Coffee Exports Fell 14.1% in Dec. to 3.8M Bags, Cecafe Says — Update 

By Jeffrey T. Lewis

     SÃO PAULO — Brazilian coffee exports fell in December amid continuing though improving logistics bottlenecks that have slowed sales abroad, according to exporters group Cecafe.

     The South American country exported 3.8 million 132-pound bags of coffee last month, a decline of 14.1% from the same month a year earlier, Cecafe said Monday. Sales abroad of the arabica variety of coffee fell 12.2% to 3.2 million bags, while exports of robusta beans plunged 66% to 131,056 bags.

     Exports of ground, roast and soluble coffee rose 19.4% to 457,245 bags, Cecafe said.

     A lack of containers and delays at ports stemming from the coronavirus pandemic have slowed exports and caused supply problems and shortages around the world. The number of containers exporting coffee from Brazil dropped 9.8% in 2021 compared with 2020, according to Cecafe.

     The flow of coffee from Brazilian ports began to improve in December, partly because of a return to “break bulk” shipping in some cases, the group said. Break bulk is a system in which goods are shipped as separate pieces in dry bulk vessels; in the case of Brazilian coffee in large bags containing a metric ton of beans instead of in containers.

DJ Brazil to Produce 2022 Total Coffee Crop of 55.74M Bags 

  By Jeffrey T. Lewis

  SAO PAULO–Brazil’s coffee harvest will be smaller than normal in 2022 because of unusually dry weather and frosts in some areas last year that had a negative effect on the development of the plants, national agricultural agency Conab said in its first report on this year’s crop.

  The country’s farmers will produce a total of 55.74 million 132-pound bags of coffee this year, up from 47.72 million bags in 2021 and down from 63.08 million bags in 2020. Brazil’s coffee production works on a two-year cycle, with larger crops in even-numbered years then smaller crops in odd-numbered years as the plants “rest” and recover.

  The total coffee harvest for 2022 will be the smallest for an even-numbered year since 2016, when the country produced 51.37 million bags, according to Conab.

  Brazil is the world’s biggest producer and exporter of the more sought-after arabica variety of coffee, and the second-biggest producer of robusta coffee, after Vietnam. The arabica crop is much more affected by the two-year growth cycle than the robusta crop.

  The South American country will grow 38.78 million bags of arabica this year, compared with 31.42 million bags last year and 48.74 million bags in 2020. It would be the smallest arabica crop for an even-numbered year since 2014, when Brazil produced 32.31 million bags of the variety.

  The robusta crop will reach 16.96 million bags in 2022, up from 16.29 million bags in 2021 and from 14.3 million bags in 2020. The robusta crop was slammed in 2016 by a drought in the state of Espirito Santo, the main producer of the variety in Brazil, that slashed production to 7.99 million bags. Since then production has risen again to current levels.

  Scant rain in Minas Gerais state, Brazil’s biggest grower of arabica, and in neighboring Sao Paulo state last year hurt the growth of the branches that this year will bear the fruit inside which the coffee beans are growing. Frosts in parts of those states in July and August 2021 also hurt the plants, Conab said.

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York and London were higher last week, with London leading the way as the market tries to ensure that there will be enough White Sugar production and imports from India and Thailand.  Ideas are that stronger Crude Oil prices imply stronger ethanol prices for more ethanol production and less Sugar production in Brazil.  There have been reports of improved growing conditions for the crops in central-south areas of Brazil.  Sugar crops in these areas got a lot of help from the recent rains but many of these areas are drier again.  More showers are in the forecast for central south areas this weekend and into next week and crops should benefit from the return of moisture to the region.  Ideas are that the supplies are available from India and Thailand as harvests there are off to a good start but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market.  Trends are turning mixed or up in the market as futures are forming a bottom.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1760, 1750, and 1720 March and resistance is at 1850, 1880, and 1910 March.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 506.00, 522.00, and 532.00 March.  Support is at 495.00, 492.00, and 487.00 March and resistance is at 506.00, 509.00, and 513.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 11, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #080732                                                              Open Interest is 1,044,324

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :  120,844    82,776   220,686   363,710   593,846   259,306    80,028   964,547   977,337:   79,777    66,987

    : Changes from: January 4, 2022            (Change in open interest:      20,768)         :

    :  -18,388    31,656    11,636    30,085   -35,842    -2,972     4,581    20,361    12,030:      407     8,737

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     11.6       7.9      21.1      34.8      56.9      24.8       7.7      92.4      93.6:      7.6       6.4

    : Total Traders:   259          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       71        55        81        83        73        41        18       231       193:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options 

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 01/11/2022

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  62,418        33,760        47,262        7,501      1,671         2,002

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          54.1%         75.7%         12.0%      2.7%          3.2%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   103            36            37            8          3            5

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                      Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

   7,906         4,124         3,715     2,629        145             668

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  12.7%          6.6%          6.0%      4.2%         0.2%            1.1%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    19            12            11        7            3               5

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  4,237        2,831

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  6.8%         4.5%

COCOA                                                                                   

General Comments:  New York and London were both higher last week on ideas of better demand as the weather is generally good for West Africa and Southeast Asia.  Trends are turning up again in both markets.  Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.  Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around.  Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results.  Ivory Coast said that it has ground 52,000 tons of Cocoa in December, up 2% from last year.  Year to date arrivals in Ivory Coast are now 6.4% below last year.  Ghana arrivals are down 53.9% from last year.  Fourth quarter grind data from Europe and North America, will be released next week.  The Asian grind data was released on Friday and showed a 6% increase in the grind.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.583 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2610, 2620, and 2680 March.  Support is at 2550, 2510, and 2480 March, with resistance at 2630, 2650, and 2670 March.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 1780 March.  Support is at 1730, 1700, and 1690 March, with resistance at 1780, 1810, and 1830 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 11, 2022

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #073732                                                              Open Interest is   274,768

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   25,056    35,377    62,197   112,871   135,668    61,790    32,575   261,915   265,817:   12,854     8,951

    : Changes from: January 4, 2022            (Change in open interest:       2,834)         :

    :    3,407    -2,784     2,196    -3,786     4,380       893       384     2,709     4,176:      125    -1,341

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :      9.1      12.9      22.6      41.1      49.4      22.5      11.9      95.3      96.7:      4.7       3.3

    : Total Traders:   226          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       62        68        77        52        37        31        23       192       164:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options 

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 01/11/2022

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

                   Processor/User

      OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

  307,239       184,983       216,377       42,568     12,420        8,481

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

  100%          60.2%         70.4%         13.9%      4.0%          2.8%

Number of Traders in Each Category

   135            49            35           11          8            9

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

             Managed Money                      Other Reportables

   Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

  26,640         32,243        9,110     8,610        561            25,027

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

   8.7%          10.5%         3.0%      2.8%         0.2%            8.1%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    21            24            19        13           4               15

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

  Long        Short

=======================

  1,820        3,020

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  0.6%         1.0%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322