About The Author

Bill Moore

William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337

MARCH BEANS

The mkt has been buffeted by both macro & fundamental factors so far this year – with the latest influence being a rainy forecast for South America – putting the mkt on its heels today – in front of the 3-day Martin Luther King holiday! However, Wed the mkt rallied 20 cents off a neutral WASDE – prod – 4,435 (4,435) – yield – 51.4 (51.8) – US stocks –350 (340) & Global stocks – 95.2 (99.3)! But the Brazil Beans came in – 139 (144) mmt which skewed the mkt higher! The Feds predicted Mar rate increase has weighed on the mkt but on the other hand, general inflation is friendly for grain prices! The S/A drought is key right now to prices!

 

MARCH CORN

Mar Corn rallied on the heels of a strong bean mkt Wed & a neutral WASDE Report! prod – 15,115 (15,069), yield 177.0 (177.1), US Stocks – 1540(1485) & Global Stocks-303 (304)! But today in front of a holiday W/E & a rainy S Brazil/Arg forecast, the funds are taking profits! Four 8am flash sales have augmented tepid weekly sales this morning! Most notable is universal support from the “outsides – the DJI is only 100 points off its all-time 37,000 high, the US Dollar is breaking out downside from a 3-month congestion area & Crude Oil is scoring new highs at 83 – very positive for ethanol demand! Corn remains potentially the strongest mkt into 2022! US acres should be lower due to high fertilizer costs, S/A production will be down due to their drought, US demand will be up due to ethanol & finally export demand should be elevated as US Corn is still the cheapest feed grain in the world! Already tight global stocks can ill-afford further S/A drought!

 

MARCH WHEAT

After being the clear upside leader from Labor Day to Thanksgiving (690-870), Wht has surrendered its leadership to corn – whose acreage concerns & solid all-around demand have catapulted it into the top spot! The latest USDA Report on Wed at 11am didn’t help the Mar Wht contract as weak stockpile #’s have forced a 30 cent decline! US Stocks – 628 (610) & Global Stocks 280 (279)! Plus, very tepid exports sales the last two weeks have piled on! Finally, so far the winter weather has not been a threat to the Winter Wheat Crop!

 

FEBRUARY CATTLE

As you can see from the above chart, Feb Cat has languished in a $6 range (136-142) since mid-Nov! The recent variance in cash epitomizes this sideways pattern! Beef-cutout Wed was the highest since 11/26 but cash cattle drifted lower! Part of the ambivalence is due to the amazing resurgence of Covid’s new variant -Omicron! Worker absenteeism is on the rise & demand jitters are surfacing based on the sheer # of infections each day! Yet, the light at the end of the tunnel is the high probability that this recent surge will spike itself out in a few weeks – leading to improved demand! Today’s fat & feeder mkt is up – benefitting from the sharply lower feed grain mkts!

 

FEB HOGS

The Feb Hog contract very simply can’t get out of its own way – as evidenced but its most recent $7 dollar plummet in as many trading days! One fundamental plaguing this mkt for several months is China’s glaring absence from the import mkt – as they have rebuilt their herds & are attempting to become independent of foreign providers! This is turn puts a lot more pork on the domestic mkt – much of which can’t be absorbed by solely domestic demand! Add to this Covid demand woes – and you have recipe for a sideways-to-down mkt!

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337