Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Softs Report 01/13/2022
COTTON
General Comments: Cotton futures closed higher and made a new high close for the move in response to the USDA reports. The reports showed less production but also a little less demand. Demand was cut on the export side but increased for the domestic side. Ending stocks were trimmed to 320,000 bales from 340,000 bales in the previous estimate. It’s been a demand market and prices have been sideways waiting for demand to catch up to the price. Ideas are that demand remains strong for US Cotton even with the weaker export sales reports over the last couple of weeks. Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future. US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation. Good US production is expected for next year as planted area is expected to increase due to high Cotton prices and the expense of planting Corn. Chart trends are up in this market.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 114.32 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 617 bales, from 617 bales yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 401,000 bales this year and 38,300 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 2,400 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 12010 March. Support is at 11640, 11450, and 11270 March, with resistance of 11960, 12080 and 12200 March.
Cotton Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type – States and
United States: 2019-2021
————————————————————————————–
: Area planted : Area harvested
Type and State :——————————————————————–
: 2019 : 2020 : 2021 : 2019 : 2020 : 2021
————————————————————————————–
: 1,000 acres
Upland :
United States …: 13,507.0 11,890.0 11,093.0 11,274.0 8,080.5 9,844.5
American Pima :
United States …: 228.7 202.0 126.5 223.4 194.0 123.8
All :
United States …: 13,735.7 12,092.0 11,219.5 11,497.4 8,274.5 9,968.3
————————————————————————————–
See footnote(s) at end of table. –continued
Cotton Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type – States and
United States: 2019-2021 (continued)
————————————————————————————–
: Yield per acre : Production 1/
Type and State :——————————————————————–
: 2019 : 2020 : 2021 : 2019 : 2020 : 2021
————————————————————————————–
: ——— pounds ——– ——— 1,000 bales 2/ ———
Upland :
United States …: 819 835 841 19,227.0 14,061.0 17,257.0
American Pima :
United States …: 1,473 1,352 1,423 685.5 546.5 367.0
All :
United States …: 831 847 849 19,912.5 14,607.5 17,624.0
————————————————————————————–
1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ 480-pound net weight bale.
Cottonseed Production – United States: 2019-2021
————————————————————————————
: Production
State :——————————————————————–
: 2019 : 2020 : 2021 1/
————————————————————————————
United States .: 5,945.0 4,435.0 5,377.0
————————————————————————————
1/ Estimates based on 3-year average lint-seed ratio.
Cotton Ginnings
ISSN: 1948-9021
Released January 12, 2022, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Running Bales Ginned by Crop – States and United States: January 1, 2019-2022
[Excluding linters]
——————————————————————————————————————–
: Running bales ginned
:———————————————————————————————–
Crop and State : 2018 Crop : 2019 Crop : 2020 Crop : 2021 Crop
:———————————————————————————————–
: January 1, 2019 1/ : January 1, 2020 : January 1, 2021 : January 1, 2022
——————————————————————————————————————–
: number
Upland :
United States ……: (NA) 17,020,650 12,601,500 14,367,350
American Pima :
United States ……: (NA) 451,150 364,050 283,450
All :
United States ……: (NA) 17,471,800 12,965,550 14,650,800
——————————————————————————————————————–
(D)Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations.
(NANot available.
1/ Data not available due to the lapse in Federal funding.
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2019/20 2020/21 Est. 2021/22 Proj. 2021/22 Proj.
Item Dec Jan
================================================================================
Million Acres
Planted 13.74 12.09 11.19 11.22
Harvested 11.50 8.27 9.92 9.97
Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 831 847 885 849
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 4.85 7.25 3.15 3.15
Production 19.91 14.61 18.28 17.62
Imports 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, Total 24.77 21.86 21.44 20.78
Domestic Use 2.15 2.40 2.50 2.55
Exports, Total 15.51 16.37 15.50 15.00
Use, Total 17.66 18.77 18.00 17.55
Unaccounted 2/ -0.15 -0.06 0.04 0.03
Ending Stocks 7.25 3.15 3.40 3.20
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 59.6 66.3 90.0 90.0
================================================================================
WASDE – 620 – 18 January 2022
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
2021/22 Proj.
World
Dec 88.58 121.57 46.94 124.27 46.95 0.13 85.73
Jan 88.41 120.96 46.56 124.24 46.56 0.12 85.01
World Less China
Dec 49.33 94.82 36.69 84.27 46.90 0.13 49.53
Jan 49.16 93.96 36.81 84.74 46.51 0.12 48.56
United States
Dec 3.15 18.28 0.01 2.50 15.50 0.04 3.40
Jan 3.15 17.62 0.01 2.55 15.00 0.03 3.20
Total Foreign
Dec 85.43 103.28 46.94 121.77 31.45 0.10 82.33
Jan 85.26 103.33 46.56 121.69 31.56 0.10 81.81
Major Exporters 4/
Dec 33.21 61.23 1.78 35.15 27.24 0.02 33.80
Jan 32.99 60.93 1.78 35.35 27.39 0.02 32.94
Major Importers 8/
Dec 49.59 38.94 42.51 82.59 2.53 0.08 45.85
Jan 49.64 39.29 42.21 82.29 2.48 0.08 46.30
================================================================================
WASDE – 620 – 28 January 2022
FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was mixed to higher and trends are still up on the daily charts. Only January and March traded lower. USDA cut its Oranges production estimate for Florida, but increased production when compared to the last report for the whole of the US. Production overall remains less on a year to year basis. The freeze season is coming to Florida but the weather remains generally good for production in Florida and around the world. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good. Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for FCOJ for January delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 148.00, 150.00, and 153.00 March. Support is at 143.00, 140.00, and 137.00 March, with resistance at 147.00, 149.00, and 152.00 March.
Orange Production Up 2 Percent from December Forecast
The United States all orange forecast for the 2021-2022 season is
3.92 million tons, up 2 percent from the previous forecast but
down 11 percent from the 2020-2021 final utilization. The Florida all orange
forecast, at 44.5 million boxes (2.00 million tons), is down 3 percent from
the previous forecast and down 16 percent from last season’s final
utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast
at 17.5 million boxes (788,000 tons), down 3 percent from the previous
forecast and down 23 percent from last season’s final utilization. The
Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 27.0 million boxes (1.22 million tons),
is down 4 percent from the previous forecast and down 10 percent from last
season’s final utilization.
The California all orange forecast is 47.6 million boxes (1.90 million tons),
is up 9 percent from previous forecast but down 5 percent from last season’s
final utilization. The California Navel orange forecast is 39.0 million boxes
(1.56 million tons), is up 11 percent from the previous forecast but
down 4 percent from last season’s final utilization. The California Valencia
orange forecast is 8.60 million boxes (344,000 tons), is up 1 percent from
the previous forecast but down 9 percent from last season’s final
utilization. The Texas all orange forecast, at 400,000 boxes (17,000 tons),
is down 27 percent from the previous forecast and down 62 percent from last
season’s final utilization.
This report was approved on January 12, 2022.
COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again yesterday as the logistical and production problems in Brazil and Vietnam are still around. The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year. Big rains more recently in some Brazil growing areas have hurt cherry formation as well. Containers are not available in Vietnam or in Brazil to ship the Coffee. The harvest in Vietnam is now about 90% complete. Vietnam is getting scattered showers on the coast but dry conditions inland. The rest of Southeast Asia should get scattered showers in the islands and mostly dry conditions on the mainland. Production conditions for the next crop in Colombia are not good.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.432 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 208.76 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers near the coast nd mostly dry conditions inland.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 247.00 and 256.00 March. Support is at 239.00, 236.00, and 225.00 March, and resistance is at 248.00, 252.00 and 254.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 2240 March. Support is at 2240, 2210, and 2180 March, and resistance is at 2390, 2320, and 2340 March[JS1] .
SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday on stronger Crude Oil futures prices. Ideas are that the stronger prices imply stronger ethanol prices for more ethanol production and less Sugar production in Brazil. There have been reports of improved growing conditions for the crops in central-south areas of Brazil. Sugar crops in these areas got a lot of help from the recent rains but many of these areas are drier again. More showers are in the forecast for central south areas this week and crops should benefit from the return of moisture to the region. Ideas are that the supplies are available from India and Thailand as harvests there are off to a good start but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market. Trends are turning mixed or up in the market as futures are forming a bottom.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1810, 1760, and 1750 March and resistance is at 1850, 1880, and 1910 March. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 495.00, 492.00, and 487.00 March and resistance is at 506.00, 509.00, and 513.00 March.
U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2019/20 2020/21 Est. 2021/22 Proj. 2021/22 Proj.
Item Dec Jan
================================================================================
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 1783 1618 1702 1705
Production 2/ 8149 9233 9241 9393
Beet Sugar 4351 5092 5393 5401
Cane Sugar 3798 4141 3847 3992
Florida 2106 2090 2005 2005
Louisiana 1566 1918 1712 1857
Texas 126 134 130 130
Imports 4165 3195 3076 3016
TRQ 3/ 2152 1749 1611 1551
Other Program 4/ 432 292 250 250
Other 5/ 1581 1154 1215 1215
Mexico 1376 968 1065 1065
Total Supply 14097 14046 14018 14113
Exports 61 49 35 35
Deliveries 12344 12252 12305 12305
Food 12246 12135 12200 12200
Other 6/ 98 116 105 105
Miscellaneous 74 40 0 0
Total Use 12479 12341 12340 12340
Ending Stocks 1618 1705 1678 1773
Stocks to Use Ratio 13.0 13.8 13.6 14.4
================================================================================
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
Sugar
2020/21 Est.
Dec 858 5715 65 4420 1165 1053
Jan 858 5715 65 4420 1165 1053
2021/22 Proj.
Dec 1053 5979 63 4401 1777 917
Jan 1053 5979 63 4401 1777 917
================================================================================
WASDE – 620 – 17 January 2022
COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were both higher but London held to the recent trading range on ideas of better demand as the weather is generally good for West Africa and Southeast Asia. Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around. Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results. Ivory Coast said that it has ground 52,000 tons of Cocoa in December, up 2% from last year. Year to date arrivals in Ivory Coast are now 6.4% below last year. Ghana arrivals are down 53.9% from last year. Fourth quarter grind data from Europe, North America, and Asia will be released next week. Trends are starting to turn up in these markets.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.613 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2610, 2620, and 2680 March. Support is at 2550, 2510, and 2480 March, with resistance at 2610, 2630, and 2650 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1740 and 1780 March. Support is at 1690, 1680, and 1650 March, with resistance at 1730, 1740, and 1770 March.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322