About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report 

  Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report and how the

government’s estimates compared with analysts’ forecasts in a

Wall Street Journal Survey.

U.S. Corn, Soybean Production

(Production in million bushels)

(Yield in bushels per acre)

(Harvested area in million acres)

                  Wednesday’s                               USDA

                    Estimate      Average     Range       December

Corn Production      15,115.0        15,069   14,932-15,190  15,062

Corn Yield              177.0         177.1    175.5-178.5    177.0

Harvested Acres          85.4          85.2     84.7-86.4      85.1

Soybean Production    4,435.0         4,435    4,396-4,484    4,425

Soybean Yield            51.4          51.8     50.9-61.2      51.2

Harvested Acres          86.3          86.4     86.0-86.8      86.4

****

U.S. 2021-22 Stockpiles (million bushels)

                  Wednesday’s                              USDA

                     Estimate     Average     Range      December

Corn                   1,540.0       1,485   1,359-1,568    1,493

Soybeans                 350.0         349     305-411        340

Wheat                    628.0         610     580-638        598

****

World 2021-22 Stockpiles (million metric tons)

                  Wednesday’s

                     Estimate      Average       Range         USDA Dec.

Corn                    303.1         304.0      295.0-307.0      305.5

Soybeans                 95.2         99.3       95.0-104.0      102.0

Wheat                   280.0        279.7      276.0-290.0      278.2

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Quarterly Grain Stocks 

  The following are key numbers from the USDA’s Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles and how the government’s estimates compared with analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.

U.S. Stockpiles on Dec. 1, 2021 (million bushels)

           Wednesday’s                              USDA        USDA

              Estimate    Average      Range      Sept. 2021   Dec. 2020

Corn          11,647      11,583   11,200-11,951    1,235       11,294

Soybeans       3,149       3,110    2,947- 3,227      257        2,947

Wheat          1,390       1,446    1,315- 1,703    1,774        1,703

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Jan 12 

  U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,

  cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and

  Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound)

  bales.

  Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey

  date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.

              ======U.S.======      ================WORLD===================

                Ending Stocks           Exports               Production

          21/22  20/21  19/20 : 21/22  20/21    19/20 : 21/22    20/21  19/20   

Soybeans  350.0  257.0  525.0 :170.74  164.73  165.06 : 372.56  366.23  339.88  

 Brazil      na     na     na : 94.00   81.65   92.14 : 139.00  138.00  128.50  

 Argentina   na     na     na :  4.85    5.19   10.00 :  46.50   46.20   48.80  

 China       na     na     na :  0.10    0.07    0.09 :  16.40   19.60   18.09  

Soyoil    1,916  2,131  1,853 : 12.49   12.42   12.30 :  61.30   59.22   58.53  

Corn      1,540  1,235  1,919 :204.20  179.36  172.34 :  1,207   1,123   1,120  

 China       na     na     na :  0.02    0.00    0.01 : 272.55  260.67  260.78  

 Argentina   na     na     na : 39.00   39.50   36.25 :  54.00   50.50   51.00  

 S.Africa    na     na     na :  3.20    3.20    2.55 :  17.00   16.90   15.84  

Cotton     3.20   3.15   7.25 : 46.56   48.69   41.16 : 120.96  111.70  120.99

All Wheat   628    845  1,028 :204.40  202.48  194.35 : 778.60  775.87  762.20

 China       na     na     na :  0.90    0.76    1.05 : 136.95  134.25  133.60

European  

    Union    na     na     na : 37.50   29.74   39.79 : 138.90  126.93  138.80  

 Canada      na     na     na : 15.00   26.41   24.63 :  21.65   35.18   32.67  

 Argentina   na     na     na : 13.50   11.53   12.79 :  20.50   17.65   19.78  

 Australia   na     na     na : 25.50   23.85    9.14 :  34.00   33.30   14.48  

 Russia      na     na     na : 35.00   39.10   34.49 :  75.50   85.35   73.61  

 Ukraine     na     na     na : 24.20   16.85   21.02 :  33.00   25.42   29.17  

Sorghum    33.0   20.0   30.0 :    na      na      na :     na      na      na  

Barley     57.0   71.0   80.0 :    na      na      na :     na      na      na  

Oats       28.0   38.0   37.0 :    na      na      na :     na      na      na  

Rice       33.0   43.7   28.7 : 49.86   50.30   43.40 : 509.87  507.24  498.84

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings 

The following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report

and how the government’s estimates compared with analysts’

forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.

U.S. 2022 U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings Estimates

                Wednesday’s                              USDA

                   Estimate    Average     Range         2021

All Winter Wheat     34.4        34.1    33.4 – 35.4     33.6

Hard Red Winter      23.8        24.0    23.4 – 25.0     23.5

Soft Red Winter      7.07         6.6     5.8 – 7.0       6.6

White Winter         3.56         3.5     3.5 – 3.7       3.5

DJ IGC Cuts Grain Production Forecasts 

  By Will Horner

  The International Grains Council Thursday cut its forecast for global grain harvests in the 2021-22 season, reflecting weaker expectations for soybeans and corn crops.

  The intergovernmental body said in its monthly market report that global grain harvests would total 2.286 billion metric tons, 1 million tons lower than forecasts issued last month.

  The downgrade was driven largely by a cut to corn production forecasts, which were reduced by 5 million tons to 1.207 billion tons, and soybean forecasts which were downgraded to 368 million from 380 million.

  Forecasts for wheat crops, however, were revised higher by 4 million tons to 781 million tons.

  The weaker expectations for the global soybean crop were the result of hot and dry weather in South America, the IGC said.

  The IGC also downgraded its forecast for grain consumption by 3 million tons to 2.287 billion tons.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Jan 13 

    For the week ended Jan 6, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in

thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,

less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total

commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.

   The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and

and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and

soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA

               wk’s net chg             total

               in commitments        commitments      undlvd sales

              this yr  next yr   this yr   last yr  this yr  next yr

wheat           264.4      0.0   16147.5   21060.3   4840.5     84.0

  hrw            38.4      0.0    6359.5    7217.3   2041.2     14.0

  srw            65.9      0.0    2377.9    1587.0    679.9     37.0

  hrs            96.2      0.0    4336.2    6111.3   1259.6      0.0

  white          30.9      0.0    2906.9    5555.0    805.6      0.0

  durum          33.0      0.0     166.9     589.7     54.2     33.0

corn            457.7      0.0   41454.6   45382.1  25790.0   1512.0

soybeans        735.6    183.0   42437.4   55472.8  10803.7    466.1

soymeal         104.2     -0.7    6230.6    6287.5   2880.4     35.5

soyoil           -2.9     -0.1     437.7     502.2    232.6      0.3

upland cotton   401.0     38.3   10994.2   11864.2   7789.8   1152.5

pima cotton       2.4      0.0     379.2     595.8    225.2      5.3

sorghum          20.9      0.0    5328.9    5278.7   3576.3      0.0

barley            0.0      0.0      30.5      30.6     19.0      0.0

rice             21.3      0.0    1639.8    1900.8    422.7      0.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 13 

Source: CME Group

              Contract                        Quantity   Next Trade

Commodity     Month      Delivery Day   Assigned Today   Date Available

SOYBEAN OIL   January    Jan 14, 2022               16   Jan 12, 2022

SOYBEAN       January    Jan 14, 2022              156   Jan 12, 2022

WHEAT 

General Comments:   Wheat markets closed lower yesterday in response to the USDA reports.  The reports showed less domestic and export demand and higher than expected ending stocks levels.  The Wheat seedings report showed more than expected planted area, especially for Soft Red Winter.  It remains dry in the western Great Plains with no real relief in sight.  Ideas had been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average or less against previous years.  Futures have been moving lower since late November because of the poor export demand and might be finding a bottom now.  Offer volumes are down in Europe.  Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production.  The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia has announced sales quotas.  Australian crop quality should be diminished.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 748, 736, and 714 March, with resistance at 771, 776, and 783 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 775, 755, and 751 March, with resistance at 793, 808, and 811 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 871 March.  Support is at 906, 901, and 888 March, and resistance is at 940, 965, and 977 March.

RICE: 

General Comments:  Rice was slightly lower despite the USDA reports that showed less production and smaller ending stocks.  Demand was trimmed as well, but production was cut more.  Imports were also cut back for a big crop in overall supply.  Futures and cash market trading have been quiet until now and the cash market is still quiet.  Many producers are not interested in selling.  Mills are showing more interest in the market as previously bought supplies start to run low.  The cash market is reported to be relatively strong as prices have held firm despite the quiet activity.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are down with objectives of 1408 and 1363 March.  Support is at 1410, 1404, and 1390 March and resistance is at 1438, 1443, and 1450 March.

CORN AND OATS: 

General Comments:  Corn closed slightly lower yesterday and the short term trends remain sideways.   USDA increased US Corn production by a little bit and did not cut Argentine and Brazilian Corn production estimates as much as it could have.  Demand was also trimmed on the domestic and export side, with domestic food, seed, and industrial demand cut.  Ending stocks were about 1.500 billion bushels. The markets heard about potential improvement in growing conditions in South America.  Support came from dry conditions continue in South America have been affecting summer Corn and Soybeans production.  However, showers are now predicted for southern Brazil and the situation there should become more stable.  Northern Brazil is expected to be drier to help with conditions there.  Most of Argentina will stay hot and dry while Brazil gets its showers.  It is also hot and dry in Paraguay and into parts of southern Brazil.

Overnight News:  Ethanol production was 1.006 million barrels per day last week, from 1.048 million the previous week, and from 941,000 barrels per day last year.  Ethanol stocks were 22.9 million barrels last week, from 21.4 million the previous week, and from 23.7 million barrels last year.  Ethanol used 103.6 million bushels of Corn last week, from 107.9 million the previous week, and from 95.1 million bushels last year.  Marketing year to date estimated Corn use for the production of Ethanol is now 1.933 billion bushels, up 127 million or 7% from last year.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 596, 591, and 585 March, and resistance is at 608, 611, and 6218 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 660 and 640 March.  Support is at 633, 627, and 622 March, and resistance is at 650, 655, and 677 March.

SOYBEANS 

General Comments:  Soybeans and the products closed higher in reaction to the USDA reports.  USDA showed less production of Soyberans for both Brazil abnd Argentina than the trade had expecgte.  USDA showed a slightl increase in production in the US and also an increase in ending stocks levels, but it was the South American estimates that caught the eyes of the market.   The rains so far this week mostly fell in northern Brazil with southern Brazil, much of Argentina, and Paraguay still mostly dry.  Showers are now in the forecast for southern Brazil this week and in parts of Argentina next week. The rains are timely and will help crops in these areas.  The dry weather in southern Brazil and in Paraguay and Argentina had been helping to feed the rally and the forecasts took prices lower.  Rains are expected in southern Brazil growing areas and Argentina in the next week or so.

Overnight News:   

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1367, 1365, and 1355 March, and resistance is at 1416, 1420, and 1427 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 432.00 and 449.00 March.   Support is at 409.00, 406.00, and 402.00 March, and resistance is at 432.00 438.00, and 444.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 5750, 5690, and 5630 March, with resistance at 5980, 6000, and 6040 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL 

General Comments:  Palm Oil was higher today on poor production conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia.  Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels.  Production conditions have been very poor and workers are not often in the fields.  Canola was lower and broke nearest support areas despite the price action in Chicago.  USDA left production estimates higher than expected and demand reports have been harder to find.  Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year.  The buy side thinks that Canola is fully priced but the farmers are still holding out for more.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 994.00 and 967.00 March.  Support is at 1008.00, 996.00, and 979.00 March, with resistance at 1022.00, 1038.00, and 1040.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives.  Support is at 4950, 4900, and 4860 March, with resistance at 5120, 5180, and 5240 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Chance of rain or snow today and tomorrow.  Temperatures should average near to above normal..

US Gulf Cash Basis 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn 

HRW 

SRW 

Soybeans 

Soybean Meal 

Soybean Oil 

June 

 July 

 May 

 May 

 May 

July 

 July 

 July 

 July 

Augustg 

 July 

 July 

 July 

 

 

[JS1] 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 12 

     WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures for Jan. 12, 2022.

     Source:  ICE Futures

CANOLA

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

                 Spot Price    Basis  Contract     Change

*Par Region        1,033.10     5.00    Mar 22   dn  2.50

Basis: Thunder Bay 1,059.70    45.00    Mar 22   dn 13.40

Basis: Vancouver   1,089.70    75.00    Mar 22   dn 13.40

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or

204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 13 

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

                Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan             1,347.50   +35.00      Unquoted   –        –

Feb             1,337.50   +40.00      Unquoted   –        –

Mar             1,297.50   +35.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun     1,202.50   +30.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep     1,117.50   +35.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB,     Malaysian ports

                 Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan              1,350.00   +35.00      Unquoted   –        –

Feb              1,340.00   +40.00      Unquoted   –        –

Mar              1,300.00   +35.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun      1,205.00   +30.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep      1,120.00   +35.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB,  Malaysian ports

                 Offer      Change       Bid       Change   Traded

Jan              1,355.00   +20.00       Unquoted  –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

                 Offer       Change       Bid        Change   Traded

Jan              1,280.00    +25.00       Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                 Offer       Change        Bid        Change   Traded

Jan              5,400.00    +80.00        Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                 Offer      Change         Bid        Change   Traded

Jan              575.00     +15.00         Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.173)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 13 

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 154,895 lots, or 8.90 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jan-22     5,920     5,920     5,920     5,920     5,959     5,920       -39        50         2

Mar-22     5,755     5,762     5,712     5,720     5,755     5,734       -21   112,291   197,792

May-22     5,780     5,810     5,764     5,768     5,796     5,783       -13    24,313    44,253

Jul-22     5,782     5,792     5,750     5,759     5,777     5,771        -6    11,591    31,771

Sep-22     5,770     5,777     5,733     5,741     5,758     5,758         0     3,676     4,899

Nov-22     5,747     5,769     5,727     5,737     5,747     5,758        11     2,974     5,120

Corn

Turnover: 509,893 lots, or 13.85 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

Jan-22     2,640     2,652     2,640     2,652     2,635     2,643         8       802          94

Mar-22     2,675     2,688     2,675     2,683     2,665     2,681        16    55,601     223,521

May-22     2,721     2,727     2,711     2,719     2,710     2,720        10   391,088   1,061,483

Jul-22     2,717     2,725     2,713     2,720     2,713     2,718         5    35,346     107,676

Sep-22     2,725     2,727     2,714     2,721     2,717     2,721         4    17,711      51,082

Nov-22     2,706     2,712     2,699     2,704     2,701     2,704         3     9,345      20,881

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,220,867 lots, or 39.61 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

Jan-22         –         –         –     3,483     3,454     3,483        29         0          60

Mar-22     3,418     3,437     3,384     3,415     3,399     3,405         6    64,843     257,938

May-22     3,233     3,259     3,210     3,243     3,228     3,231         3   947,940   1,368,176

Jul-22     3,216     3,247     3,200     3,233     3,216     3,220         4    41,164     197,421

Aug-22     3,259     3,297     3,252     3,284     3,264     3,275        11     9,751     113,360

Sep-22     3,265     3,290     3,243     3,279     3,260     3,264         4   123,894     221,615

Nov-22     3,225     3,251     3,207     3,241     3,217     3,227        10    20,726      47,860

Dec-22     3,218     3,234     3,196     3,220     3,202     3,211         9    12,549       6,561

Palm Oil

Turnover: 793,253 lots, or 71.45 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jan-22    10,180    10,180    10,180    10,180    10,062    10,180       118        13     3,028

Feb-22     9,900    10,064     9,888    10,030     9,892     9,986        94     1,376    11,842

Mar-22     9,642     9,804     9,642     9,740     9,642     9,726        84    32,917    74,610

Apr-22     9,284     9,436     9,284     9,384     9,284     9,368        84    11,154    48,593

May-22     8,906     9,078     8,904     8,982     8,916     8,988        72   708,360   476,562

Jun-22     8,674     8,802     8,660     8,712     8,674     8,724        50    23,676    44,263

Jul-22     8,496     8,628     8,496     8,540     8,496     8,558        62     5,876    14,099

Aug-22     8,384     8,406     8,384     8,406     8,300     8,404       104       151     4,009

Sep-22     8,212     8,370     8,212     8,290     8,238     8,290        52     9,601    17,998

Oct-22     8,222     8,242     8,180     8,242     8,146     8,216        70         8       213

Nov-22     8,046     8,160     8,046     8,120     8,004     8,116       112       110     1,532

Dec-22     8,090     8,100     8,000     8,066     7,962     8,056        94        11        33

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 755,500 lots, or 68.85 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jan-22     9,310     9,350     9,310     9,350     9,200     9,398       198        51       893

Mar-22     9,312     9,470     9,312     9,410     9,348     9,408        60    31,620   104,289

May-22     9,070     9,188     9,050     9,118     9,076     9,118        42   671,440   545,628

Jul-22     8,910     9,042     8,900     8,948     8,910     8,958        48    16,400    85,160

Aug-22     8,808     8,954     8,808     8,900     8,858     8,906        48     6,608    36,080

Sep-22     8,790     8,912     8,780     8,846     8,798     8,850        52    18,032    35,250

Nov-22     8,656     8,782     8,656     8,728     8,674     8,726        52     4,756    13,262

Dec-22     8,576     8,700     8,560     8,650     8,600     8,646        46     6,593       520

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322