About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 12 

Source: CME Group

              Contract                        Quantity   Next Trade

Commodity     Month      Delivery Day   Assigned Today   Date Available

SOYBEAN OIL   January    Jan 13, 2022               36   Jan 05, 2022

SOYBEAN       January    Jan 13, 2022               10   Jan 07, 2022

WHEAT 

General Comments:   Wheat markets closed higher yesterday on what appeared to be some speculative buying before the USDA reports that will be released later today and as it remains dry in the western Great Plains with no real relief in sight.  Ideas had been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average or less against previous years.  Futures have been moving lower since late November because of the poor export demand and might be finding a bottom now.  Offer volumes are down in Europe.  Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production.  The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia has announced sales quotas.  Australian crop quality should be diminished.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers.  Temperatures should average below normal.  Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 748, 736, and 714 March, with resistance at 771, 776, and 783 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 776, 755, and 751 March, with resistance at 793, 808, and 811 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 871 March.  Support is at 906, 901, and 888 March, and resistance is at 948, 965, and 977 March.

RICE: 

General Comments:  Rice was lower in what appeared to be speculative selling as the market started to get ready for the USDA reports that will be released later today.  Futures and cash market trading have been quiet until now and the cash market is still quiet.  Many producers are not interested in selling.  Mills are showing more interest in the market as previously bought supplies start to run low.  The cash market is reported to be relatively strong as prices have held firm despite the quiet activity.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are down with objectives of 1408 and 1363 March.  Support is at 1420, 1404, and 1390 March and resistance is at 1435, 1443, and 1450 March.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jan 12 

 USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices

of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields

and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)

and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA

                    —–World Price—–      MLG/LDP Rate

                     Milled Value  Rough      Rough

                     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)

Long Grain            14.38         9.15       0.00

Medium/Short Grain    14.37         9.19       0.00

Brokens                9.12         —-       —-

CORN AND OATS: 

General Comments:  Corn closed higher yesterday and the short term trends remain sideways.  The markets heard about potential improvement in growing conditions in South America and was also preparing for the USDA reports that will be released later today.  Support came from ideas that the overall fundamental picture for Corn is bullish as dry conditions continue in South America have been affecting summer Corn and Soybeans production.  However, showers are now predicted for southern Brazil and the situation there should become more stable.  Northern Brazil is expected to be drier to help with conditions there.  Most of Argentina will stay hot and dry while Brazil gets its showers.  It is also hot and dry in Paraguay and into parts of southern Brazil.  Conab in Brazil estimated Corn production at 112.9 million tons from 117.0 in December and Argentine production estimates are also less.  Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are mostly done harvesting and not selling, but ideas are that farmers are delivering enough to keep the market satisfied.  Interior basis levels are reported to be strong.  There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production but so far new crop futures have not been strong.

Overnight News:  Unknown destinations bought 100,000 tons of US Corn

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 596, 592, and 585 March, and resistance is at 608, 611, and 6218 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 660 and 640 March.  Support is at 646, 633, and 627 March, and resistance is at 677, 680, and 694 March.

SOYBEANS 

General Comments:  Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed higher as the South American weather situation remains a mixed bag but is expected to improve   The rains so far this week mostly fell in northern Brazil with southern Brazil, much of Argentina, and Paraguay still mostly dry.  Showers are now in the forecast for southern Brazil this week and in parts of Argentina next week. The rains are timely and will help crops in these areas.  The dry weather in southern Brazil and in Paraguay and Argentina had been helping to feed the rally and the forecasts took prices lower.  Conab in Brazil estimated Soybeans production at 140 million tons and Argentine estimates have been trending lower as well.  Central and northern Brazil might be too wet for Soybeans in at least some of these areas as Soybeans do not like very wet soils.  Reports indicate that some Corn has been lost and ideas are that Soybeans could become stressed if the dry weather continues in southern Brazil and northern Argentina.  Soybeans are also lost in the north.

Overnight News:  China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1370, 1368, and 1355 March, and resistance is at 1399, 1416, and 1420 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 432.00 and 449.00 March.   Support is at 406.00, 402.00, and 398.00 March, and resistance is at 437.00 438.00, and 444.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 5750, 5690, and 5630 March, with resistance at 5980, 6000, and 6040 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL 

General Comments:  Palm Oil was lower today on the disappointing export pace so far this month.  Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels.  Canola was a little lower in range trading and on some liquidation before the USDA reports today.  It was another relatively narrow range day.  Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year.  The buy side thinks that Canola is fully priced but the farmers are still holding out for more.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 432.00 and 449.00 March.  Support is at 1020.00, 1012.00, and 996.00 March, with resistance at 1038.00, 1040.00, and 1048.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives.  Support is at 4900, 4860, and 4800 March, with resistance at 5050, 5120, and 5180 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry today, a little snow tomorrow.  Temperatures should average near normal..

US Gulf Cash Basis 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn 

HRW 

SRW 

Soybeans 

Soybean Meal 

Soybean Oil 

June 

 July 

 May 

 May 

 May 

July 

 July 

 July 

 July 

Augustg 

 July 

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[JS1] 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 11 

     WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures for Jan. 11, 2022.

     Source:  ICE Futures

CANOLA

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

                 Spot Price    Basis  Contract     Change

*Par Region        1,035.60     5.00    Mar 22   dn  4.50

Basis: Thunder Bay 1,073.10    45.00    Mar 22   dn  2.50

Basis: Vancouver   1,103.10    75.00    Mar 22   dn  2.50

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (Phil Franz-Warkentin,

news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 12 

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

                Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan             1,312.50   -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Feb             1,297.50    00.00      Unquoted   –        –

Mar             1,262.50   -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun     1,172.50   -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep     1,082.00   -07.50      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB,     Malaysian ports

                 Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan              1,315.00   -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Feb              1,300.00    00.00      Unquoted   –        –

Mar              1,265.00   -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun      1,175.00   -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep      1,085.00   -07.50      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB,  Malaysian ports

                 Offer      Change       Bid       Change   Traded

Jan              1,335.00   -10.00       Unquoted  –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

                 Offer       Change       Bid        Change   Traded

Jan              1,255.00    -10.00       Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                 Offer       Change        Bid        Change   Traded

Jan              5,320.00    -30.00        Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                 Offer      Change         Bid        Change   Traded

Jan              560.00     -01.00         Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.184)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 12 

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 190,407 lots, or 1.10 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jan-22     5,939     5,960     5,939     5,960     5,960     5,959        -1        31       330

Mar-22     5,772     5,785     5,726     5,769     5,787     5,755       -32   140,731   182,109

May-22     5,806     5,820     5,774     5,805     5,816     5,796       -20    31,205    40,899

Jul-22     5,827     5,827     5,757     5,791     5,793     5,777       -16    16,500    30,275

Sep-22     5,768     5,779     5,739     5,769     5,771     5,758       -13     1,057     3,610

Nov-22     5,753     5,769     5,725     5,756     5,750     5,747        -3       883     2,821

Corn

Turnover: 737,043 lots, or 19.93 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

Jan-22     2,625     2,650     2,625     2,648     2,630     2,635         5     2,040       2,397

Mar-22     2,650     2,681     2,648     2,680     2,643     2,665        22    92,482     226,471

May-22     2,700     2,724     2,692     2,720     2,688     2,710        22   577,345   1,048,963

Jul-22     2,706     2,724     2,701     2,722     2,701     2,713        12    37,106     108,741

Sep-22     2,706     2,729     2,703     2,725     2,701     2,717        16    11,950      49,209

Nov-22     2,689     2,710     2,688     2,708     2,689     2,701        12    16,120      20,707

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,125,818 lots, or 36.48 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

Jan-22     3,473     3,473     3,446     3,446     3,489     3,454       -35       367          60

Mar-22     3,400     3,431     3,368     3,423     3,414     3,399       -15    67,004     268,524

May-22     3,229     3,259     3,198     3,247     3,239     3,228       -11   895,344   1,374,316

Jul-22     3,225     3,246     3,192     3,231     3,231     3,216       -15    30,113     181,108

Aug-22     3,265     3,294     3,242     3,279     3,272     3,264        -8     9,213     112,344

Sep-22     3,260     3,286     3,234     3,274     3,267     3,260        -7    87,185     206,303

Nov-22     3,219     3,245     3,195     3,236     3,226     3,217        -9    23,727      48,141

Dec-22     3,214     3,228     3,180     3,223     3,200     3,202         2    12,865       6,613

Palm Oil

Turnover: 724,900 lots, or 64.83 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jan-22    10,056    10,064    10,056    10,062     9,550    10,062       512        12     3,041

Feb-22     9,880     9,954     9,830     9,928     9,786     9,892       106     4,018    12,544

Mar-22     9,676     9,726     9,574     9,662     9,570     9,642        72    34,615    74,231

Apr-22     9,326     9,368     9,218     9,302     9,224     9,284        60     9,296    47,182

May-22     8,964     9,004     8,832     8,914     8,852     8,916        64   641,506   475,988

Jun-22     8,700     8,758     8,596     8,668     8,602     8,674        72    21,871    39,559

Jul-22     8,562     8,594     8,426     8,486     8,450     8,496        46     5,466    13,513

Aug-22     8,414     8,414     8,300     8,384     8,332     8,300       -32       206     4,159

Sep-22     8,254     8,310     8,160     8,232     8,176     8,238        62     7,178    18,778

Oct-22     8,156     8,208     8,100     8,208     8,142     8,146         4         8       213

Nov-22     8,070     8,080     7,972     8,026     7,982     8,004        22       256     1,531

Dec-22     7,962     8,060     7,950     7,994     7,962     7,962         0       468        32

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 705,262 lots, or 63.97 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Jan-22         –         –         –     9,200     9,192     9,200         8        21       894

Mar-22     9,392     9,418     9,286     9,346     9,334     9,348        14    31,124   104,849

May-22     9,122     9,152     9,018     9,058     9,070     9,076         6   622,376   538,118

Jul-22     8,958     8,978     8,864     8,900     8,902     8,910         8    18,420    83,965

Aug-22     8,902     8,924     8,816     8,848     8,852     8,858         6     6,911    36,093

Sep-22     8,828     8,856     8,752     8,786     8,778     8,798        20    15,216    30,276

Nov-22     8,714     8,732     8,632     8,668     8,656     8,674        18     4,385    13,341

Dec-22     8,638     8,672     8,546     8,592     8,586     8,600        14     6,809       496

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322