About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON        

General Comments:  Cotton futures closed a little higher as the market has developed into a short term trading range before the USDA reports that will be released on Wednesday.  It’s been a demand market and prices have been sideways waiting for demand to catch up to the price.  Ideas are that demand remains strong for US Cotton even with the weaker export sales reports over the last couple of weeks.  Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future.  US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation.  Good US production is expected for next year as planted area is expected to increase due to high Cotton prices and the expense of planting Corn.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 111.90 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 617 bales, from 617 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 12010 March.  Support is at 11450, 11270, and 10980 March, with resistance of 11760, 11830 and 11960 March.

USDA Report Estimates from Bloomberg

2021-22: 

Avg 

Low 

High 

Dec. 

Avg vs Prior 

US Production 

18.24 

18.04 

18.40 

18.28 

-0.037 

US Exports 

15.39 

15.20 

15.50 

15.50 

-0.114 

US End Stocks 

3.46 

3.00 

3.85 

3.40 

0.056 

World Production 

121.54 

121.40 

121.75 

121.57 

-0.028 

World Consumption 

124.25 

124.00 

124.50 

124.27 

-0.020 

World End Stocks 

85.61 

84.00 

86.50 

85.73 

-0.125 

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ was near unchanged and trends are mixed on the daily charts.  The freeze season is coming to Florida but the weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.

Overnight News:  Florida should get isolated showers.  Temperatures will average near normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for FCOJ for January delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 140.00, 137.00, and 135.00 March, with resistance at 144.00, 146.00, and 149.00 March.

COFFEE   

General Comments:  New York and London closed lower yesterday as the logistical and production problems in Brazil and Vietnam are still around but might be old news for the market.  The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year.  Big rains more recently in some Brazil growing areas have hurt cherry formation as well  Containers are not available in Vietnam or in Brazil to ship the Coffee.  Cherry pickers are hard to find in Vietnam due to Covid problems.  Vietnam is getting scattered showers on the coast but dry conditions inland.  The rest of Southeast Asia should get scattered showers in the islands and mostly dry conditions on the mainland.  Production conditions for the next crop in Colombia are not real good.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.492 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 205.07 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 256.00 March.  Support is at 232.00, 227.00, and 225.00 March, and resistance is at 243.00, 248.00 and 252.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 2240 March.   Support is at 2240, 2210, and 2180 March, and resistance is at 2270, 2280, and 2300 March[JS1] .

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York and London were lower yesterday on reports of improved growing conditions for the crops in central-south areas of Brazil.  Sugar crops in these areas got a lot of help from the recent rains but many of these areas are drier again.  More showers are in the forecast for central south areas this week and crops should benefit from the return of moisture to the region.  Weaker demand ideas were still being caused by reports of renewed lockdowns in Europe due to Covid.  Some stores and restaurants are closing in the US.  However, the effects of the new variant are reported to be mild so the fears were less.  Ideas are that the supplies are available from India and Thailand as harvests there are off to a good start but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives.  Support is at 1750, 1720, and 1680 March and resistance is at 1810, 1850, and 1880 March.  Trends in London are down with no objectives.  Support is at 477.00, 474.00, and 471.00 March and resistance is at 484.00, 487.00, and 492.00 March.

COCOA                                                                                   

General Comments:  New York was a little higher and London was a little lower as the weather is generally good for West Africa and Southeast Asia.  Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.  Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around.  Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results.  Ivory Coast said that it has ground 52,000 tons of Cocoa in December, up 2% from last year.  Year to date arrivals in Ivory Coast are now 6.4% below last year.  Fourth quarter grind data from Europe, North America, and Asia will be released next week.   Trends are starting to turn up in these markets.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are a little lower today at 4.658 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2480, 2450, and 2420 March, with resistance at 2510, 2570, and 2600 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1680, 1650, and 1620 March, with resistance at 1720, 1730, and 1740 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322