About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 11 

Source: CME Group

            Contract                        Quantity   Next Trade

Commodity   Month      Delivery Day   Assigned Today   Date Available

SOYBEAN     January    Jan 12, 2022               70   Jan 06, 2022

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jan 10 

WA_GR101

Washington, DC    Mon   Jan 10, 2022   USDA Market News

***This report will not be published on Monday, January 17th, 2022 due to federal holiday.***

COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.

INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED

THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.  NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,

COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE

GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

                  REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JAN 06, 2022

                            — METRIC TONS —

————————————————————————–

                                                   CURRENT     PREVIOUS

             ———– WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR

  GRAIN      01/06/2022  12/30/2021  01/07/2021    TO DATE     TO DATE

BARLEY              0           0           0       10,010       20,944

CORN        1,022,677     759,563   1,345,367   14,084,268   16,564,135

FLAXSEED            0           0           0          224          461

MIXED               0           0           0            0            0

OATS                0           0           0          300        2,593

RYE                 0           0           0            0            0

SORGHUM       201,482       1,951     133,461    1,930,821    2,481,721

SOYBEANS      905,149   1,614,158   1,909,217   31,646,567   41,129,711

SUNFLOWER           0           0           0          432            0

WHEAT         233,159     230,361     281,356   12,431,651   15,296,793

Total       2,362,467   2,606,033   3,669,401   60,104,273   75,496,358

————————————————————————–

CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED;  SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

DJ Brazil Cuts 2021-2022 Soybean, Corn Forecasts Amid Scant Rain in South 

  By Jeffrey T. Lewis

  SAO PAULO–Brazilian crop agency Conab cut its forecast for soybean production for the 2021-2022 growing season mostly because of unusually dry weather in the country’s southern states.

  Brazilian farmers will produce 140.5 million metric tons of soybeans this season, the agency said Tuesday. In December, the agency forecast a crop of 142.8 million tons. Brazil produced 137.3 million tons of soybeans in 2020-2021, according to Conab.

  Brazilian farmers will produce a total of 112.9 million metric tons of corn this season, the agency said. In December, the agency forecast a crop of 117.2 million tons. Brazil produced 87 million tons of corn in 2020-2021, when a drought in parts of the south hit productivity.

WHEAT 

General Comments:   Winter Wheat markets closed higher yesterday on spreading against Corn and Soybeans and as it remains dry in the western Great Plains with no real relief in sight.  Ideas had been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average or less against previous years.  Futures have been moving lower since late November because of the poor export demand and might be finding a bottom now.  Offer volumes are down in Europe.  Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production.  The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia has announced sales quotas.  Australian crop quality should be diminished.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers.  Temperatures should average below normal.  Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 711 and 709 March.  Support is at 759, 736, and 714 March, with resistance at 771, 776, and 783 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of  749 and 729 March.  Support is at 755, 751, and 747 March, with resistance at 783, 787, and 793 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 871 March.  Support is at 906, 901, and 888 March, and resistance is at 948, 965, and 977 March.

RICE: 

General Comments:  Rice was lower in consolidation trading as the market started to get ready for the USDA reports that will be released on Wednesday.  Futures and cash market trading have been quiet until now and the cash market is still quiet.  Many producers are not interested in selling.  Mills will show more interest in the market as previously bought supplies start to run low.  The cash market is reported to be relatively strong as prices have held firm despite the quiet activity.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1450, 1443, and 1435 March and resistance is at 1466, 1475, and 1479 March.

CORN AND OATS: 

General Comments:  Corn closed lower yesterday and the short term trends are sideways.  The markets heard about potential improvement in growing conditions in South America and was also preparing for the USDA reports that will be released on Wednesday.  Support came from ideas that the overall fundamental picture for Corn is bullish as dry conditions continue in South America have been affecting summer Corn and Soybeans production.  However, showers are now predicted for southern Brazil and the situation there should become more stable.  Northern Brazil is expected to be drier to help with conditions there.  Most of Argentina will stay hot and dry while Brazil gets its showers.  It is also hot and dry in Paraguay and into parts of southern Brazil.  Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are mostly done harvesting and not selling, but ideas are that farmers are delivering enough to keep the market satisfied.  Interior basis levels are reported to be strong.  There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production but so far new crop futures have not been strong.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 596, 592, and 585 March, and resistance is at 608, 611, and 6218 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 660 and 640 March.  Support is at 646, 633, and 627 March, and resistance is at 677, 680, and 694 March.

SOYBEANS 

General Comments:  Soybeans and the products closed lower as the South American weather situation remains a mixed bag but is expected to improve   The rains over the weekend mostly fell in northern Brazil with southern Brazil, much of Argentina, and Paraguay still mostly dry.  Showers are now in the forecast for southern Brazil this week and in parts of Argentina next week. The rains are timely and will help crops in these areas.  The dry weather in southern Brazil and in Paraguay and Argentina had been helping to feed the rally and the forecasts took prices lower.  Central and northern Brazil might be too wet for Soybeans in at least some of these areas as Soybeans do not like very wet soils.  Reports indicate that some Corn has been lost and ideas are that Soybeans could become stressed if the dry weather continues in southern Brazil and northern Argentina.  Soybeans are also lost in the north.  Brazil could have soybeans ready for export by the end of February and the crop potential is up to 150 million tons although many are now starting to drop production outlooks due to the hot and dry weather.  Ideas are now that Brazil can produce between 130 and 145 million tons of Soybeans this year due to the losses in the south.

Overnight News:  Mexico bought 100,000 tons of US Soybeans. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1370, 1368, and 1355 March, and resistance is at 1390, 1396, and 1408 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 432.00 and 449.00 March.   Support is at 414.00, 406.00, and 402.00 March, and resistance is at 437.00 438.00, and 444.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 5750, 5690, and 5630 March, with resistance at 5980, 6000, and 6040 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL 

General Comments:  Palm Oil was higher today on the MPOB data showing smaller than expected stocks levels.  Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels.  Canola was a little lower in range trading and with the Chicago price action.  It was a relatively narrow range day.  Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year.  The buy side thinks that Canola is fully priced but the farmers are still holding out for more.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed to u[p with objectives of 432.00 and 449.00 March.  Support is at 1020.00, 1012.00, and 996.00 March, with resistance at 1038.00, 1040.00, and 1048.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives.  Support is at 4900, 4860, and 4800 March, with resistance at 5050, 5120, and 5180 March.

DJ Malaysia Jan. 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Down 40.6%, SGS Says 

  Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Jan. 1-10 period are estimated down 40.6% on month at 325,601 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Tuesday.

  The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:

  (All figures in metric tons)

                            January 1-10        December 1-10

   RBD Palm Olein                133,260              174,647

   RBD Palm Oil                   20,465               43,080

   RBD Palm Stearin               19,200               53,135

   Crude Palm Oil                 68,534              108,620

   Total*                        325,601              548,379

  *Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included

  SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry today, a little snow tomorrow.  Temperatures should average near normal..

US Gulf Cash Basis 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn 

HRW 

SRW 

Soybeans 

Soybean Meal 

Soybean Oil 

June 

 July 

 May 

 May 

 May 

July 

 July 

 July 

 July 

Augustg 

 July 

 July 

 July 

 

 

[JS1] 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 10 

     WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures for Jan. 10, 2022.

     Source:  ICE Futures

CANOLA

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

                 Spot Price    Basis  Contract     Change

*Par Region        1,040.10     5.00    Mar 22   up 11.80

Basis: Thunder Bay 1,075.60    45.00    Mar 22   dn  4.50

Basis: Vancouver   1,105.60    75.00    Mar 22   dn  4.50

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or

204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 11 

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

               Offer       Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           1317.50      +10.00      Unquoted    –        –

Feb           1297.50      +10.00      Unquoted    –        –

Mar           1267.50      +15.00      Unquoted    –        –

Apr/May/Jun   1177.50      +12.50      Unquoted    –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   1090.00      +05.00      Unquoted    –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

               Offer       Change      Bid         Change   Traded

Jan           1320.00      +10.00      Unquoted    –        –

Feb           1300.00      +10.00      Unquoted    –        –

Mar           1270.00      +15.00      Unquoted    –        –

Apr/May/Jun   1180.00      +12.50      Unquoted    –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   1092.50      +05.00      Unquoted    –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

               Offer       Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           1345.00     +10.00      Unquoted    –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

               Offer       Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           1265.00     +10.00      Unquoted    –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

               Offer       Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan          5,350.00     -10.00      Unquoted    –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

               Offer       Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan            561.00     +04.00      Unquoted    –        –

($1=MYR4.19)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322